YOU match the race - Saratoga race 6
 

Horse 9

YOU match the race - Saratoga race 6
 

Horse 10

YOU match the race - Saratoga race 6
 

Horse 12 to complete the field

YOU match the race - Saratoga race 6
 

Tandems for this race.

YOU match the race - Saratoga race 6
 

My workup of the 6th at Saratoga:

I see the 3 and 4 run early in around 46 and change 1c and 1:10 and change 2c. I see the winner running OTE here.

1 - slow - Out
2 - slow "Mars" horse - Out
3 - Early - Out
4 - Early - Out
5 - shows 2 good finishes against fast pace - In
6 - shows a good finish way back against fast pace - In
8 - slow horse - Out
9 - faced 1:11 2c twice and has failed to hit the board - Out
10 - slow horse - Out
12 - slow horse - Out

Final win contenders - 5 and 6
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Matching line 3 for the 5 against line 7 for the 6 shows clearly the 5 is both ahead of the 6 and also faster. Matching lines from Belmont so confidence is high.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
#5 Banrock to Win

Race #4
 

I used the Last line of #11 to come up with the pace of the race. which is 23.3 47.1 111.3 137.3 144 (I added 6.2) to bring it to 8.5f.

There are two horses that can take the lead, #4, 9. But they have never won on the lead. All the other horses seem to be slow at the 1/4 mile and at the 1/2 mile and at the 2nd call.

Since #11 comes from the fastest pace of the race and I figured that it is going to run OTE. This race fits this horse perfectlly. The #11 should win the race easy.

emilio

Participate
 

These races will stay up for a week or so to give folks a chance to see the races and hopefully participate.

Then Jim will come on and lay out his workup of each race followed by him looking to try and see things in YOUR individual workups that he might help you with ok?

Good Matching and see you in a week or so.
Richie

You are quite welcome Jon. I am really hoping folks will turn out and PARTICIPATE. That is the whole purpose of this thread.

Getting folks to jump in who have read the book and/or have been reading the threads here.

The last 2 threads prior to this one are approaching a combined 9 THOUSAND views.

THAT is an awful lot of "somebodies" looking in man. Knowing how Bill has the board set up I can tell you it is a LOT of folks interested.

Let's see what goes down.

It is OK to lose a race here. I have lost so many races in the last year over the phone with Hat I could not count them. Yet after every loss I LEARNED something from him.

NOW is YOUR chance to LEARN about the Hat's teaching. Just hope this is understood and that people chime in.

take care,
Richie

Rich:

Just one suggestion if possible. Why not keep the responses and work-ups by us separate from your post in which you give us the races with corresponding work-ups. This will minimize confusion and give some that may be slower an opportunity to respond.

Anyway here goes:

Saratoga race 1; I agree that it could be won by an OTE since 7 out of the 9 runners are early type runners.

The win contenders that you have selected are the only off the pace types and I used 22.0 and 45.4 to separate them (all times in 5ths).

Horse #1 shows better and more races at the 45.4 half mile time as shown back in race #7 and race #5, and even somewhat in race #3.

Horse #8 shows only one competitive race at the 45.4 half-mile time, race #2, where he lost ever so little ground in the stretch to the winner.

As to horse #1 I would say that the race 7 back shows that he can run at the projected pace for these two contenders since he was at the 2nd position throughout the 5F race. He even gained lengths on the leader in the stretch after having fallen back some through out the race, and all in 45.2. In the 5th race back against a faster first ¼ of 21.3 and the preferred 45.4 half mile or less he had a very big Power Move with 2 moves and a pick up of 7 lengths on the leader and winning while going away at 3.5L.

Win choice #1 Cool The Economy.

Thanks,

Robert

Thank You
 

Richie,
I can'y thank you enough for your extremely informative posts. I don't have the book, but have been reading the threads. I've started to practice what you preach( along with the Hat), but, have a ways to go. Lately my betting has been in sort of a funk where I would have the winner and not get the second horse, or for my Pick 3's running 2 3 4 in the last leg or first leg. I hope after more practice I can narrow down the horses. Once again thank youand the Hat.
Ira

OK, Richie did four races--the 1,2, 4 and 6.

In the first two races I analyzed them just exactly as Richie did. I came up with the same two horses.

In the fourth race, I again came up with the same two horses as Richie, and it posed a problem--I couldn't separate them. What to do? If one is 8 to one and one is 2 to one, I'd probably go with the 8 to one and let the odds work out over time--also in situations like that, odds permitting, I'll bet them both to win, since I'm pretty sure I have the winner. But it's still a tough choice, and I haven't been passing these types of situations enough. I do know one thing though, that closer will be flying down the lane--and push come to shove, I'm going with him.

In the sixth race Richie and I have a parting of the ways. The 4 looks like the only speed to me. The 3 had speed a while back, but it looks like he's changed his running style and is now a slow horse. If he hasn't, then I'd sure like to know why. That would mean I don't know the definition of changing running styles and becoming a slow horse.

The four has wired two races before in his PPs plus he's fast. He's going to be the pace setter, so in my opinion it's an Early race for him to lose.

Rich, I hope your right as to more people actually joining in, registering on the site, and taking the time to participate in what you and “The Hat” are so graciously offering. Although I believe there will be allot of lurking for free information (as already demonstrated) to add to their handicapping tool box but no real commitment to the methodology. Many I will venture to guess do not own the Match Up books or have had the opportunity to seek them out to at least read. Speaking for myself only, I will continue to participate in this very enlightening exercise but as to those of us who are more committed to being better at the MU methodology this opportunity in particular and the site in general is such an unearned freebee.

Here goes race #2 at Saratoga:

FTS out and if they beat it will not be the first time.

Like you after looking at the ¼ mile and ½ mile times I have projected 22.2 and 45.1(in 5hts) mostly from the #5 horse’s times in his first race.

The race as to the match up of the call times is between he #5 horse, the #4 horse, and the #3 horse.

The #4 horse, JZ Warrior makes a power move in his only race going from 4th position to 3rd position against a ½ mile time that is almost 5 clicks better and holds that 3rd position through out the rest of the race. The # 5 horse, Alpha Tammy on the other hand caves in after the projected pace of 45.1 to finish 7th. The #3 horse, Rap Tale makes a steady run against today’s projected pace of 45.1 improving at every call both in position and lengths on the leader. There is a bit of a power move in the stretch but since this is a maiden race and it was so late into the stretch that it was probably more about passing tired horses.

In the end the win bet goes to the #4 horse, JZ Warrior.

Thanks—to be continued since I do have to get some work done in between the preferred handicapping,

Robert

Race 6
 

There are 4 Early horses here. #3,4,8,12.

The pace of the race I used the 2nd line from the #4. 23.3 46.3 110.3 133.4 140.1 (added 6.2) to equal 8.5 furlong time.

The #3 has changed running style or is not running to his good fractions.

This race I am having a difficult time because I know that there are more than 3 horses that NEED TO LEAD. The #4 looks like he is the Lone Early because the only horse that can make him run faster is the #3 horse and I think the #3 has changed his running style. I try to stay away from races where there too many Earlies. This race is a real challenge because I see it running Early and at the same time there is too many Earlies which gives me doubt of what to do. Do I predict Early or OTE. I am stuck.

emilio

Saratoga race 1
 

"Matching with The Hat", wow,... man, how cool is that? This is First Rate Lab work. Harvard or Yale don't have a better course, even if they was to get one. Have never been excited to do homework as I am now. Am very anxious to learn from our mistakes and analysis of each horse. Many thanks to Professor Bradshaw and his "Hat Helper", Richie Pizzicara. Now to Race (1):

• Horse (1) Cool The Economy- Sus Presser
• Horse(2) Heaven's Flame-Early/Need-to-Lead--changed his style last 3 lines,cannot run fractions previously won at,will probably break 1st out the gate. OUT
• Horse (3) Kimkanrun--Early/Needs-to-Lead--- Horse needs a VERY easy lead. The 5 & 6 horse will negate any comfort lead he needs.Plus, he's 7th at the "break", and only get's 4th/3 and half lengths back. Sure it's a faster pace of race, but horse should have showed something at the "break".....from a horse who "fought" at a 23.OUT.
• Horse (4) Bravo's Princess--Sus
• Horse(5) Rapidian--Early---From line 2 to line 1 ,going backwards fast. Cannot run previous fractions he had success at. Will probably probably "break" 1st or 2nd with the (2). OUT
• Horse (6) La Bomba--Early Presser--Did'nt run close to his 3rd line with similar fractions, except at (1) call. His 2nd line, against slightly slower times, he barely wins. Maybe a hurt horse. OUT.
• Horse (7) Sneaky Girl--Sus Presser
• Horse (8) Tzipi--Sus Presser--Problem horse analysis. Did he fail cause of 1st time on track, or cause he like's 111's and change as a final time?
• Horse (9) Smokin Racer--Against 23's, he's Early. Againt faster, he can run as a Sus Presser.
• None of the Early horse's look like they can go all the way, the race sets up as Other-than-Early.
• From the (2) Heaven's Flame, he has 3 lines which he was close to 22.4's. So I'm going to project about a 22.4 46.2
• Throwing out all the Early horses, we are left with the Other-than-Early horses , 1,4,7,8,and 9.
• Matching Power lines, the (4) Bravo's Princess /line 2 and the (7) Sneaky Girl /line 2, both their Pace of Race at every call is too slow compared to the other horses that remain, so they are OUT.
• The (9) Smokin Racer will be behind the other 2 horses that remain at both 1st call and 2nd call. His Pace of Race is slower than the other 2 horses that remain at similar position calls, he's OUT.
• So now, the (1) Cool the Economy, against 45's FAILED and loses POSITION and beaten lengths in [5] lines against 45's, versus the (8) Tzipi who DID and CAN make moves and PASS horses against 45's AND finish in 111 and change , compared to his rival., so the (1) Cool The Economy is OUT.
• The (8) Tzipi is left and is the winner and bet.

VoodooFan

Saratoga race 2
 

• Horse (3) Rap Tale--Sus
• Horse (5) Alpha Tammy--Early-Lone Early. Need to see how much of a lead he can get today.
• Horse (4) J Z Warrior--Sus Presser-Other -than-Early "fighter"--watch out!!!!
• Horse (7) Seemingly--Sus
• Horse (8) Spirit Line-- "REALLY?????" Please tell me "which" line has "spirit"??? The vet should check this horse for a heartbeat. OUT
• Horse (9) Jolie The Cat--Sus
• The (5) Alpha Tammy will only have 1 position & 1 length lead against the (4).
• The (5) Alpha Tammy has never been in the lead , except out the gate & has not proven to be a fighter or handle pressure. He was 2nd position & "faded" against the horse in front of him.
• The (4) J Z Warrior moved 1 position & 2 lengths against a 2nd Call that was a FULL SECOND faster, [ FIGHTING ].
• The (4) J Z Warrior also maintained his position after battling, although he lost lenghts, against a strecth call that was 1 second &3/5ths faster than the (5) Alpha Tammy, who dropped BADLY at a much SLOWER stretch call.
• The (4) J Z Warrior is the horse to bet and the rest of the horse's are still in the barn.

VoodooFan

Rich:

So here goes race # 4 at Saratoga:

What Tandem race between the #4 horse and the # 9 horse? When I printed out this race with the tandem races included I see nothing between Josefina’s Pride and Early Hatch.

I agree with your choice of the three contenders which are the #4, #9, and #11.
You know once I looked at your work up statement about the three contenders having all won at 1.11 I got fixated on that. I see the #4 horse with a two move race at 1.11.1 4 races back, the #9 horse with a one move race at 1.11.3 5 races back, and the #11 horse with a three move race at 1.11.3 last race.

I believe the # 9 horse as to this race will get the lead from the only lukewarm warm early horse in the race #4. I base this assumption on the time differences between race 1 for the #9 horse and race 3 for the # 4 horse. Here I did some Voodoo type adjustment and determined that the # 9 horse gets to the first two calls first and hence the leader. I do not know if I was supposed to do this to determine assumptions about best early today but it seemed logical.

This is a very interesting race because of the chaos factor (horse forced to take the lead) and seemingly now slow horses, power moves and voodoo adjustments. All recent MU education factors.

I believe the # 9 horse is faster to the first two calls then the # 4 horse and will now have the lead which she really does not want (chaos race?). Consequently I like the # 4 horse generally over the # 9 horse but neither has proven themselves lately against Rich’s projected half-mile time of 1.11. The #11 horse on the other hand has proven itself big time, even though for the very first time against a 1.11 last race when considering last 10 races. Three moves against today’s projected race of 1.11 with one of three power moves in the stretch even though this may be a life time best rating in its last race (?) is a very good last race that can not be overlooked.

I like the #4 horse and the # 11 horse to win the race especially since the # 9 horse is in a forced to take the lead situation. True Match Up play is one horse to win so it is the #11 horse. I think the #4 horse is generally a proven faster horse with wins against a 1.10.4 on the dirt and 1.11.1 on the grass. It is #11 over the # 4 horse because I can not explain why the #4 horse has not been able to win against half mile times that are almost 10 clicks (5ths) slower in its last two races when compared to its 4th race back. Furthermore when it did win third race back it was almost 14 clicks worse then just its 4th win back (when considering both ½ mile and ¾ mile times). The # 9 horse has similar recent slow races problems.

I am just going with the flow of the recent MU education here and have a problem with my assumptions as to the # 4 and # 9 being now slower horses. They are after all in good form having had an IMF in 2 of last 3 races. I similarly have a problem with my assumption that the # 11 horse has just become a faster horse on the grass based on its last very good race when compared to its only other grass win 8 races back against a very slow 1.15.1. Please clarify my now slow horse dilemma.

Thanks,

Robert

Saratoga race 4
 

• Horse (1) Irish Ballerina--changed his style from his maiden from a Sus Presser/Sus to Early Presser. Cannot run similar to line 3 at much slower call. "Hat Helper" says he's OUT.
• Horse (3) Joyeux Ruler--Sus---will disregard last line, broke 3rd, tried to run earlier at much faster time. Must've got some oat's with honey on 'em that day.
• Horse (4) Josefina's Pride--at 25's , likes to run Early. At 24's, Early Presser/Sus Presser.
• Horse (5) Morlana--Sus- simiply lost the desire to run. OUT
• Horse (6) Madam Manguy--Early Presser--horse going backwards from line 2. Last line Pace of Race was [2] FULL SECONDS & 2/5ths slower than 2nd back and he is backing up. "Hat Helper" says he's OUT.
• Horse (8) Optimist Girl--Sus--horse's speed deteriorating from 4th line ,but horse still tries to run.
• Horse (9) Early Hatch--Early Presser & Sus Presser---pace analysis of this horse gives you fits. What does he want to do?
• Horse (11) Willis Sweet Girl--Sus--4th line back, faster 1st call and 2nd call with slower stretch call, compared to his last line of a slower 1st call ,2nd call with faster stretch & final; still similar constant.
• The ( 4 ) Josefina's pride will project about a 25.2 in the lead with the 1, 3,6, and 9 running with him.

• Throw out all the Early horses , the only possible survivor is the (9) Early Hatch.
• The (8) Optiimist Girl is better and closer in the Tandem than the (3) Joyeux Ruler, so the (3) is OUT.
• The remaining horses are the 8, 9 and 11.
• At similar position calls, the (11) is faster than the (8) Optimist Girl, so (8) is OUT.
• With the (11) horse Pace of Race calls we have : 1/4 mile=8/5ths faster than the (9). At the 1st call 7/5ths faster than the (9) Pace of Race. At the 2nd Call, the (11 ) Pace of Race is 5/5ths faster than the (9).
• Looking back, the (9) has finished closer to the Pace of Race in 2 races similar to the (11) last line.
• A toughie, but my bet is with the (9) Early Hatch. The (11) seems like more of a {one move} horse.

VoodooFan

This is how i would do race 1. I would use #7's last race as the pace of the race.
#1 - sustained - line 3
#2 - early - 6 furlong lines ugly - out
#3 - early - ugly - out
#4 - s/p - ugly
#5 - presser - quits
#6 - e/p - slow
#7 - sustained - line 1
#8 - sustained - ugly
#9 - early - slow
This #1 and #7. Both are sustained horses.
Comparing their lines:
#1 - 22.0 - 45.4 - 57.6 - 109.9
#7 - 22.5 - 45.6 - 57.6 - 110.5
I would pick #1

Re: Race #6

I looked at this race again and it appears that the 12 horse will go out with the 4. They both have nearly identical fractions for a 1 1/8 race at Bel.

The four has a faster mile race, but this is 1 1/16 so they'll probably slow down some.

That leaves four horses with the right running style as possible contenders.

#1 Ready Enough
#5 Banrock
#6 Academy Royale
#10 Admiral Bird

#10 Admiral Bird appears to be slower and comes from too far back--out.

#1 The same applies to this horse. Slower and comes from too far back--out.

Between the #5 and #6 Academy Royale appears to be slower and comes from farther back than Banrock. Banrock had very fast 1 1/8 splits at Sar a year ago and it's third race back at Bel (last year) is also good.

So I'd go with Banrock.

My original selection was the #4 Of all times.

If this is one of those cases where my first instinct was right, then so be it. But it looks like I handicapped the race a little to quickly to begin with.

Last MU race with “The Hat”

Saratoga race #6:

Rich I agree as usual with your on the money assessment of early/late and the projected pace of about 46 and 1.10. I do have a bit of a different twist on the OTE although.

There are two solid early types in this race which are the #3 horse and the #4 horse. One of the other early runners is the #12 horse and he is too slow. The other early runner type runner #8 I have pegged as an early presser type and he is to slow today.

I am looking for an OTE to beat out the #4 horse who is the early reliable based on its 2nd race back on the grass. The #3 horse is a bit of a mystery since he has not shown that good speed of 1.10 projected for today since 8 races back. He has had many opportunities both on the grass and on the dirt but seems to have become a slower horse. I need to make a stand here and say that the #3 horse has become slow as displayed in recent racing or else my slow/fast horse evaluation of the Saratoga race 4 is meaningless. Having said that this race will have a lone early of the #4 horse and now I need to beat him if possible.

Rich I do agree with 1 to 2 of your contenders but I have taken the position that this race will in fact run early and all other OTE’s are out. Additionally none of the OTE’s have really shown me that they can over come the projected 46 and 1.10 pace of the race. I have decided after going over the contenders especially as to the #3 horse who I have taken a position against as now being too slow to really affect the other early type #4. I expect the #4 horse to break well as demonstrated in 3 of his last 4 races and to move on comfortably to win the race. If I am all wet as to the #3 horse then so be it and your #5 horse wins the race. I agree with you that the fastest of the slow OTE’s is the #5 horse as demonstrated to me in his 4th race back (ugh-not a hell of a good power line IMO). I can play it safe and bet to win the #5 horse and the #4 horse but this is MU play. I have to stick to what I think I know and let you or “The Hat” set me straight. I can not allow myself to say that in one race a horse is out because it is too slow and then in another disregard the perceived slowness and continue to use it in other selection assumptions.

Thank you for this opportunity even though I would have wished that it was not done in front of a mostly undeserving internet world.

Robert

4 "Hat Helpers" from Jim Bradshaw
 

I spoke with Jim just now. He is VERY pleased with this thread and the participation. He hopes for MORE to join in.

He gave me 4 "Hat Helpers" to pass on to YOU.

He wants them posted HERE in this thread to help you(and me) with the races and also wants you to REMEMBER them when working ALL races ok?

Jim Bradshaw's "Hat Helpers":
1) Pay attention to horses coming out of the fastest pace in last race.Look at them closely.

2) Power Lines

3) Power Moves

4) "It is VERY difficult to go wire to wire against FAST horses who make great
Power Moves." - The Hat

Richie

Saratoga race 6
 

Just need a little clarification here. By last race, do you mean the last or most recent race in the form, or do you mean the last "good" or "power" race the horse ran?

Steve,
THIS.

Saratoga Race One


Guys you did a great job in matching this race, determining that the race would run Other Than Early is the key in winning the race. Next find the fastest Other Than Early horse, never rely on one running line to find this horse.

The Three, Five Six and Nine are horse that show an early running style, these horses are "tossed out." The Two, Four and Seven are slow and are "tossed" This leaves the One and the Eight as the main contenders in the race.

Match the One and Eight line by line and decide the one to bet. Did you miss the Tandem they ran? Which one was ahead of the other most of the time? Is there any reason the Tandem will reverse? The answer is no.

Cool the Economy is faster than Tzipi and is the bet in this race.

Jim,

Watching you handicap is like watching a pool player running racks. It looks soooo easy.


The five stages of the "Hat"

1. Visor
2. Cap
3. Sombrero
4. Fedora
5. "Hat"

Saratoga Race Two & Four

Race Two only has the 3, 4, 5, 7, 8 and 9 horses to match the others are first time starters . Each of the horses only have one line to match and 22.0 is the fastest first call. The race should run "other than early" and the four and Nine are the best. The four horse has faced the fastest second call and almost go the lead. I believe J Z Warrior is a standout and should win, if he isn’t beaten by one of the first time starters. I played him with the One horse in the first race for a Daily Double.

The Fourth race a One Mile and One Sixteenth on the turf. was an interesting race, the Seven, Ten and all the horses entered for the main track were scratched. The Two horse is the only horse with any early speed and can also run "other than early." The Three horse was out run by Will’s Sweet Girl, so is out. The Four horse was outrun by the Six and is out. The Five shows nothing and is out. The Six is slow and is out. The One horse is slow and is out. The Eight is a slow horse and is out. The Nine horse could take the lead, but is slow and should be caught. The process of The Match Up gives me the Two and Eleven. I placed by wager on the Two, but was a late scratch. I usually don’t do ood if I go back and look at the race, so I placed a wager on Will’s Sweet Girl and won the race.

Pattern recognition
 

Thanks for the analysis on the saratoga race's , Mr. Bradshaw. Trying to study these examples very hard. Never tire of the MatchUP. Pino and Richie are there, I'm working at it. VoodooFan