Bill, exactly right.
I don't think Doc was thinking he would ever go through so many phases when he started out. Kind of like WWI wasn't called that until we started calling the next one WWII.

FL opens Friday, 1:10 PM.
TPR methods work very well there.
We have limited distance, all dirt, and generally, most all races are for 3YO and up, few 3yo races.

I'll be in the stands, with Val4 loaded on my new little Acer mini laptop.:D

Tom
 

--times sure have changed from commodore 64 days to acer mini's !!!

SAX - Race 4 Using TPR and Decelaration With Syn 4
 

SAX - Race 4 Using TPR and Decelaration With Syn 4

Here's a race that in my opinion won't offer much value but might be a good example of what we have been discussing. I've included my PaceAppraiser contender selections and The Synergism 4 readouts that correspond to my selected lines.

A Happy and Peaceful Easter Holiday to all.

Hi Bill...
the way I see it....with so many horses that tried this class and repeatedly lost ..I will put my money on the horse that is second time out ..#4
Did he really push him last out with the leader 5 lts ahead?

gl

mike

I kind of felt that I mean basically Isn't TPR
the Sartin Methodolgy light ?



Not true basically they came about as an easier way for people to understand the match up of a race.As I have said before because they look so simple people feel this way.I will tell you this as long as you have the correct pacelines in they are just as powerful as any screen on any of these modern type programs.

Surprise, Surprise. :confused: The (5) horse wins the 2nd at SAX and pays $ 16 and change.

The 2nd TPR and Deceleration (2) won the 4th race. The (5) had a dated paceline. The winner paid $ 9.60 :cool: This was also the overlaid or value horse.

Parsnut,

Having looked at the possible line selection for #5, I couldn't help but notice that you used the ONLY line where this horse gained as much as an inch in the stretch. it appears that had you chosen the horses last line or the fourth line back, he may not have the best deceleration. I would be curious to know why you think the horse will run back to the line you selected, rather than one of the other possible lines.

I would have chosen the last line,I have found out using Synergism best to pick pacelines at today's distance if possible.

For The Lead: .

The paceline that I choose is part of the method that I use. Normally the line should be within 90 days. I qualify the line and the horse and other factors.
The race dictated an early runner. Take a lot at the photo I've attached.
If I were sure that my horse could run back to the line of my choice, I would quit my day job.

Term Definitions Of PaceAppraiser
 

Term Definitions Of PaceAppraiser

I've attached these graphics so that one viewing my graphics can get an idea as to what they imply.
The method that I use is "Extreme Pace Handicapping" by Randy Giles.
The book costs $ 19.95
I also follow Randys Pace Box Course as well which can be found in his subscibers section on his site: www.paceappraiser.com

Re-Cap Keenland Contest - 25 Race Cycle (Single Pick)
 

Re-Cap Keenland Contest - 25 Race Cycle (Single Pick) For Win

As a lot of you already know, I am strictly a win bettor. My preference is one win horse per race.
The Keenland contest has produced more "bombs" then I would have hope for. Despite this phenominum, I am at 36% winners with a little less then $1.00 return for each dollar bet Win and not very close to the top 10.
I am using PaceAppraiser as my primary tool and looking at the TPR's.
Here's a 25 Race Cycle (singe picks) of my activity.

Good job

I know you will disagree but....here are my rules for selecting a pace line

I'm not afraid to select a pace line that is a Route for today Sprint or vice versa
I select a Muddy or Sloppy line if I have to
I select a line that is 3 years old, if to my judgment is the right line
I go 10 deep if is the line
I use poly or turf for dirt if is the right line
I don't care if the trainer or jock is 0 winning percentage
I don't care from what track the pace line is chosen
I don't pay attention to variants
I use final time, with less attention to the fractional time
I don't care how the horse did run the first 3 fractions, I'm only concern that he finished 5 lengths or less off the winner in the pace line selected.

I love to be contrarian

Oh my....wheres Tim...he will destroy you!!!....lol

Excellent capping
 

Parts:

Superb capping! Especially for using one selection per race. Those are phenomenal results.

All the BEST!

Vinnie

mike57,
if would make him happy

Vinnie: Thanks, Vinnie

gl45: Hi Pino, It's just the opposite. I can agree on most of these points.
I know you do well with it, so keep it going. The Taulbot method is all good.

There ARE NO RULES, simple as that. use all the lines that make a horse competitive.

LET THE PROGRAM tell you how the horses's efforts have placed in today's match up.

PACE MAKES THE RACE P. 158 M. Pizzolla. "There are no rules, but there are some things which you can do to move along. To those who must have a mechanical approach, I can only tell you that you are sentencing yourself to mere competence at best. One of my favorite quotes is attributed to Lao Tze, the compiler of the Tao Te Ching. He said, "When the great Way is lost, there arises codes of conduct and behavior."

LIMITING the final beaten lengths to some arbitrary number (which for the life of me has NEVER been adequately explained) HIDES many an improving performance. People fail to realize that one of the OLDEST ANGLES IN THE BOOK IS IMPROVING EARLY SPEED and when you leave a great 2nd call performance on the shelf because the horse failed to finish (often the rider realizes this and does not persist) one is missing one of the BASIC aspects of handicapping.

Great Thread
 

I really like when people post screenshots from the various programs we use. Whether it is RDSS; Speculator; Energy/THOROMATION; Validator; Synergism III/IV; and Pace Appraiser among others it really helps in the learning process.

For myself this has always been the area where Pace and Cap seperates itself from many BBS's out there. It is one thing to select a horse in a certain race but to actually explain the decision making process with screenshots helps greatly.

The TRACK does make a BIG difference if it was FROM Philadelphia Canterbury, Keelenad, Turfway, Woodbine, Presque Island, the Meadowlands and a few others.

Variants can skew lines way off base. That is why looking at more that one is necessary.

What in a race is the closest thing to a defense in other sports? PACE PRESSURE. Would any team, in preparation for an upcoming game, ONLY consider ONE defense? Of course not and we should not consider a single line based upon ONE variety of pace pressure.

Unless one considers a variety of pace pressure scenarios, how can one make a rational prediction of just what pace PRESSURES a horse can handle?

I don't know about anyone else, but I already have this taped to my monitor. I don't want to miss these important points next time I'm picking pace lines.

ANGLES? You mean like a certain jockey, riding for a certain trainer, on the turf? That kind of ANGLE? Well, at least you got around to stating "one is missing one of the BASIC aspects of handicapping." Early speed is the PRIMARY ASPECT of handicapping.

Jim Bradshaw once said and I paraphrase," horse racing is an easy game. One horse gets out front and if no other horse can pass it, it wins."

EVERY RACE begins with the question, "who will make the lead?"

Pino,The tracks have to matter such as the case when a shipper comes into Charles Town from Penn National,there is no way you can compare them looking at raw figures.That's why I like Synergism 4 thanks to the great job done by Houndog the program will make the proper adjustment.Jeff

Jeff,
I only play one track, MNR.
If a shipper from CT shows up at MNR and has a pace line of my liking, that's my line

OK I get it now,your smart sticking to one track.

To be contrarian does pay off

26581728958686 MNR #6 $1 Exacta BX,1,5,6,8 $12.00 $ 460.90

Funny whatever the HORSE doesn't do is irrelevant

Pino,Very nice.Jeff

just wanna say thxs to Pino and Jeff for joining in again with us...your knowledge is very much appreciated..

thxs mike

#1
 

Pino
That is absolutely AWESOME paisan!!

You have put a tremendous amount of serious work into your play and it is great it is paying off big time!

The man knows his track and is doing some serious damage :D

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vmdZQ...eature=related

thanks

Mike,Thanks.I really dont have that much knowledge at all the main thing for me is putting in the right pacelines.Any of these programs will do the job as long as you do this.Jeff