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Ballpark
15 races
Hi Rich You know me better than anyone here' with my ability lets say tomorrow morning I woke up and said I'm going to auto select my lines base on the guidelines you have used in these most recent 15 races Rough guess How long would it take me to 1. scan the cards to find races that you have determined give you an optimal chance to win 2, select the lines that fit your template 3. hide or make the track, race and program numbers for horses that you will enter into your online betting system 4. lastly place the 15 (or more) races bets Just a rough idea.. I have about 30- 45 minutes time in the morning from about 5.00 am to 5.45 am could I do it ? Of course I can't really do this because in New Jersey it 4 njbets only and they have no "only over 9/2 bets system" anyway If they did, could I do it in 45 minutes ?? |
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Those 15 races soup to nuts is 3 1/2 hours - 4 hours a full Saturday of 40 races or so is 9-11 hours The reason it takes so long is the paceline eventually chosen has passed 3 crietria or different stages to get picked. Thats the big difference time wise Bill. A race that takes me 1 minute to pick lines for using blf 7.5 or less might take 15-20 minutes this way cause I have to keep stuff in my head |
Caveats and comments
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Hope those results can be of some use. Just wanted to add that most of this sample was taken from the NY and CA circuit tracks, Woodbine, Monmouth, with a few additional mid-level tracks. TE is extremely effective at the bigger tracks, especially SA, HOL, and WO, and worked very well at GP during the winter. I'm not completely sure that these results could be extrapolated to smaller tracks, which may be less well-maintainted and be running more erratic animals, even at the same class levels. One phenomenon I found at some lower-level tracks, and would like to explore more, is 'TE-clustering', that is many races at these places seem to have horses with extremely bunched TEs, to the point where it can't be used a separator. My take on this is these are horses of very equal ability where the winner is the horse who happened to 'wake up' that day, or where other factors have greater significance. But as I said, this is an area for further exploration maybe for those who play or know these tracks well. This probably goes without saying, but TE doesn't work as well with racing surfaces and tracks which are either extremely early or late, which seem to me to comprise about 15% of races. Best of luck to you and Barb. Cheers, B Jennet |
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Well Barb and myself found 3 races last night to look at using your outline: Penn 5th Mnr 7th Mnr 8th I haven't heard from her yet but it was very profitable as your minimum odds requirements per ranking only produced 2 plays from the 3 races and 1 very nice winner: Mnr 7th - #5 (#1 total energy off last line. why big price? going up in company off sharp win) WINS $15.20 Definitely something to check out here and again thank you for sharing. The very best vibes to you and yours :) |
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I can email you the night before the races I would look at. They are basically the bread and butter open claiming races and starter alw races at the tracks. NO: maidens 1 line horses stakes bucks real oink oinks etc etc Virtually every horse in every race has 10 pacelines in the pps. Many of the races have very full fields also. Forget my template, minimum odds stuff etc. You have known me for over a decade. I bore easily and have to do other stuff :) Use your bl3 or whatever method YOU favor and take that 30 minutes and work some races, see what shakes Remember "Macker" at the Big M? "There will be more! Wooooo" :eek: These are today's races fwiw aqu - 8 ded - 8.9 gg - 2.3.6 haw - 3.4.9 kee - 5.9 lrl - 2.3 osa - 5 pen - 2.7 suf - 1.2.3.4.5.7.8 wo - 1.3.5 |
Race
Thank You Rich
This is great !!! Hey Rich I worked race 7 myself Look at the POR the 5 ran in the last race Using Val 4 mode The adjusted speed rating is a 92 I thought this was out of wack but I checked RDSS and the raw POR time and Fastest pace last race the 5 was a bet !! Thank you to everybody ..:) nothing like reading listening using and winning Bill |
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Morning Ted
Is this the day by day breakdown thing you wanted? Btw I see 6 winning days and 2 losers. The 17th I had to stop entering horses as there was stuff that came up here and the day as a whole was aborted. BUT bets were put in and that's what is shown here are the 1st 4 sessions |
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the last 4 sessions bring things to today :)
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Pretty consistent, Rich - 1 small down day and 1 really down day, but that one was bookended by 2 doozies. This should give you a good sense of consistency.
At any of the tracks, the win unit could have been $20 instead of $2 with no loss of odds. Probably also at least $50 for most of them. Keep up the good work Rich! Attachment 17934 Ted |
Thanks but...
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Thanks for the positive reponse to my post, but I want to emphasize that this is a work-in-progress, a model rather than something as immutable as the word 'science' implies, and hope that anyone who reads it will regard it in that light. If these numbers continue to hold up that's great, but if not, they need to be corrected. The more constructive criticism we can make of the models we are using will only make them stronger - more accurate, and hopefully profitable. Thanks again. Cheers, B Jennet |
Wild and Wooley Thrusday
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Day 9 this month of auto template was a wild one for sure. :eek:
Night tracks paid off and the day tracks were dominated by losing value bets. all in all looks to be a rebate players dream again (breaking even with lots of bets right?) the races from yesterday in total FIFTY horses bet |
Updated totals for the month
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..:)
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Richie, I'm impressed with what I see but am curious as to an estimate of rebates assuming you had been making $20 bets.
Tell Mrs. Doris Go Yankees! I guess she didn't want to bet with me. Good wagering but don't neglect your school work sonny boy. :D Budman |
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$20 x 50 bets = $1000 @ 2.66% = $26.60 Most of these tracks could support at least $50 win pool wagers (PEN?) before affecting payoffs, some much more. Ted |
Thanks Ted
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The Law of Large Numbers
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I don't know if you realize this, and I see Ted is kind of pointing you to it, but this rate of bankroll growth is spectacular. Because, in absolute terms, you're betting small amounts it may not strike you, but think of yourself as the average blackjack or poker pro with a 100k bank. In nine days of play, your autopaceline model has made 50% of your bank - 50k - plus rebate. In these situations (which do happen, but are rare, because the edge is much smaller), everybody's popping corks. Your autopaceline model is achieving a 20% ROI - don't forget that William Benter was making 35 million a year with a 28% ROI - throw in the level of rebate you'll be able to get at higher betting totals, and you're just about there. So, if you have a day like this, where you basically flatline, just ignore it and, like a poker or blackjack player, think in terms of the long run. Blackjack players think of the long run because they know that given variance (luck), anything can happen in the short term, but in the long run, they have the edge. I know a guy, an excellent BJ player, who flatlined not for a day, but for six months a couple of years ago - fortunately he covers all his expenses in advance. In the next month, he made 100k - his EV (expected value) for the year. That's one of the big advantages of making many bets like this, you're getting into the long run more quickly, letting the Law of Large numbers work for you in smoothing out your variance. Keep it rolling. Cheers, B Jennet |
BJ,
Points well made, re bankroll growth and re Benter and his ROI. Although, before folks get to drooling too much, betting CT, PEN, DED, ZIA Win pools are not where Benter made his millions (Hong Kong exotics). For that, here, need to find more bets at the major tracks, and eventually in exotic pools. Ted |
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Updated.
Attachment 17961 ** I seem to be off by $2.00, so like a good bookkeeper, I plugged it... . |
The day the music died
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Friday 10/30 was the day the music died for "auto" killing virtually a whole months profit in one session.
There is one big problem with this and it's been coming. I cant continually be buried day after day where I need a 20-30 buck horse to get even. Yesterday it never came. I recognize this pattern from the 90's when a friend and me analyzed for days the patterns of higher paying winners relative to our reads. I will stop the betting here on this for now, take a small profit, bet enough to watch videos a few months. Now it is time to see whats what with a couple of things. Now the hard work begins :) Ted if you would update the table thing you have that would be great! Screen shots of yesterdays debacle :eek: and final overall totals for the month |
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Am I reading this wrong?
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I see you had a bad day, but I still see you with an .11 ROI. Am I just reading this wrong? Its not my place to interfere with anything you're doing, but I am certain of one thing - if you're looking at this as a research project, a sample of 277 races is far too small to have any validity. This doesn't mean that your autopaceline model also couldn't benefit from tweaking, but with this small a sample, the jury is still out. If you start tweaking now, you'll never know the true value of this particular autopaceline method. If you do want to make some changes and start over, try to do a sample of at least 1000 races before drawing any conclusions about the strength of your model. If you're familiar with the poster 'sjk' on the PA site, he told me that his profitable model didn't stabilize until he had a sample of 2,500 races, but hasn't deviated thereafter for the past decade. There's another page out of Benter's book that also seems worth consideration, and tfm alludes to this in his reference to the homogeneity of the horse population Benter was handicapping - as part of the test of your model (or simply handicapping) make sure that you're playing at tracks you can beat. I'm convinced that both the economics of racing, the decline of interest in the sport, and the growth of whale betting has killed the profit potential of certain tracks. The more races you do, and the more you analyze the data, the more these tracks will reveal themselves, and allow you to eliminate them from play. Any place that could be renamed Chalkdust Downs, and there are a number of them, is not going to be a profitable venue for this kind of autoselection method, or even for normal Sartin handicapping. Another thought I had is that publicly posting your results by the day may cause stress that you don't need. Best of luck, B Jennet |
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A few observations - yesterday gave back not the whole month, but only the previous 4 betting sessions: you're back to where you were between days 4 and 5. On Oct 16 and 26, from betting only 15 races you made $42.50 and $33 profit respectively, more than (and close to) what you lost in this latest day. With respect to what BJennet said in his last post, and the ups and downs you show in these records - with this particular contender and bet selection strategy perhaps this is the volitility you should expect. With only 277 bets, there's no evidence so far to know whether the bankroll growth is still not on an upward trajectory. And with the volitility, you also don't know whether this $42 loss won't be followed by another $42 (or more) profit. I think it is too soon to say that this particular method is not sound. It is pretty clear, though (correct me if I'm wrong) that this method exacts a certain emotional toll, what to speak a lot of ball busting work. I don't want to minimize that at all - the emotional inputs to the method are as important as paceline selection, contender elimination and bet strategies. There will be volitility - period. When the bankroll is 5 times what it is now and you can actually bet 1% of it on each race, one day you will lose 10% or 15% of it. Pre-accept that now, and also accept that the day you hit 3 boxcars and increase the bankroll by 33%, a portion of that increase is merely insurance for 3 days later when you will give back half that gain. If you can take a step back, look at your records, see the direction the exercise is heading (from a birds-eye view) and perhaps see an opportunity to emotionally de-sensitize yourself to the volitility - perhaps this will be as valuable a learning for you as the handicapping part. Sure, you can also study and refine the selection and betting strategies (3 horses per race sometimes? - no place bets?), but for the pile of work you've done so far this month to have its greatest value, and to prove that it can be done with $20 and $50+ bet units, I hope I can encourage you to give it at least another 10 betting sessions, say 500 bets total. The minute I can offer you in RDSS a race identification filter and/or a paceline selection strategy, or a bet file upload tool to an ADW conditional wagering queue, I'll get on the phone, amico! Take a breather, dress up as some Italian guy from Westchester, and play some tricks tonight! Study what you've got here, but double-check to make sure some old-style emotional patterns aren't robbing you of the rewards of your research so far, or of future payoffs. Tu salute! Ted |
ROI is ROI
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No question the homogeneity of the horse population helped Benter, but his methods are working just as well with the more diverse horse population in this country. I had some dealings with him about five years ago, acting as a liaison with people who were trying to set up Hong Kong style teams here. Some have quit but others are still going strong - one among many reasons the game has become so tough. Despite his 'strong form' information-gathering team, in the end, he had about the same ROI as Tom Brohamer, Dick Mitchell, Dick Schmidt, and other good professionals, which is by far the most significant factor in the long run. The one big edge he had over most horseplayers was that logit modeling, if done correctly, provides an extremely accurate estimate of a horse's true win probability, which allows for optimal Kelly betting. I enjoy your posts. Cheers, B Jennet |
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Work
Thanks Ted
I really feel for Rich .. His heart as always is there . Without an automated way for him to lesson the work load Psycologically he and most normal people will get beat down testing with $2.00 bets without that extra zero ant the end of his bets It must be a drag Am I the only person around here living in a real world The guy (richie) bust his back doing hour aftre hours of work He has posted here how it took him like 4 hours to do 15 races He hit a $50 winner an what was his work worth ? like $12.00? I can't thank Rich and you enough for the efforts you make to help us Sartin Methodology users move ahead into the world of today However lets never forget what Doc was really about Believeing in the work and feeling a sense of accomplishment Asking Richie to do so much work and his reward is the payoff on $ 2.00 bets is in my opinion slave wages I say lets wait to have some way to lesson his work before we ask him to test so many races He has shown us it will work ,,, done the correct way |
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Personally, I'd continue until I had, at least, doubled my starting bankroll; and then double my unit and see if I could double my roll again. At that point, I'd have a large enough sample size to confidently bet pretty much whatever I could handle. |
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Feelings
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I know you guys are right. I know Ted is brilliant and I know I should shut up but I know my friend best and I don't want to see him discouraged Unfortunatly there is no Doctor Sartin to speak to us about a "bad head" |
Tongue in cheek?
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You seem like a sharp guy, and I thought you might be a pro, so I thought this question might be a put-on. But if not, ROI is return-on-investment, or some might just call it your edge. As you suggest the issue of ROI and the definition of a professional gambler are two separate things. I guess you could describe a pro as anyone who derives all or the largest part of their income from gambling. In a sense, it doesn't matter how high your ROI is, but obviously it must exist. I've mentioned Ernie Dahlman, a horseplayer who makes in the neigborhood of $750k with a 3% ROI + rebates. The average blackjack pro has only a 1% ROI, but this doesn't stop a number from making low six figures. Re the names of horseplayers I mentioned, all were Sartin players (even Mitchell used the figures) who averaged in the area of 25-30%, and were professionals for a number of years. I've known other talented players in this same general zone, and as I said, Benter's ROI performance has been documented in the same range. So when I said 'good' this is my own estimate of what is possibly the high range of professional play. Certainly, it's not easy to achieve. But obviously, it's possible to make excellent money with a lower ROI, and this was my main point for Richie. His performance so far is still very good, well within the range of profitable play, and that he has no reason to be discouraged. Cheers, B Jennet |
I hear you
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I don't post here that often, but that doesn't mean I and the others who post here, don't appreciate the work that you and Richie have done on this site, and that includes this project of his. I agree with you that Richie should not continue with this if it's going to make his life more stressful. And I gather that he has a number of much higher priorities in his life. But the point of some of my posts, which is also made by Ted and others, is that even if he takes a break now, he should not abandon the results of this research because he thinks it's not successful, because, from any rational point of view, it has been successful. Possibly he can pick it up at a later point, when he's more rested, or simply wait until Ted has finished his software update, which would greatly cut down on his labor. Of course, it's all up to Richie. And I think when we read your posts, we realize Richie is lucky to have a friend like you. Cheers, B Jennet |
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Richie,
After a bad day, it is human nature to want to tweak or quit what you are doing. Ask me how I know...LOL I know nothing of your method, but did look at the results Ted posted and would strongly encouage you to keep it up. Getting in the hole and catching a $20 horse now and again sounds like you may be onto something good (I mean that!!). If winning on 4-1 shots and less were the way to go there would be a bunch of idiots at your local otb's winning instead of asking YOU whodoyalike? Jim |
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Thank you everyone for their feedback. It is greatly appreciated and I HAVE learned from the replies so that is a great bonus.
I have stopped the "do all of them or do none of them" theme I was using for NOW. Hopefully Ted's template will let me resume this testing at a greatly reduced workload. It would also allow testing my template on other race types beside the layout I showed here. The result attached here shows a huge winner I had ranked TIED for third on Bl/Bl 2 nights ago at the Mountain. Problem is the race type is DIFFERENT from the ones I had been exclusively looking at and betting (check the race conditions and compare to what I laid out earlier and you will see what I mean ok?) For clarity I did not bet the horse (nor any horses for that matter). THIS type of stuff/exploration is what I am hoping the auto paceline template will be able to deliver at a greatly reduced mental/physical workload. I had a great talk with both Bill and Ted yesterday and that's always nice!:) I am now looking into results for the month from a couple of different angles. I am also reminded of a key word needed for success especially in todays racing environment: Patience http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pEzuC5UoM8g&feature=fvst Again thanks everyone for the feedback/suggestions and the very best of luck/skill at the windows :D For your listening pleasure! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jU0b_...5EF941&index=5 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpww0...5EF941&index=3 |
Point/Counterpoint
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The opposite of all this "auto" stuff is the quote attached here by Barry Burkan in his article "Finding Logical Longshots" found in Followup #4 in the new library.
**Sidebar** Pirco Charter member Bob Cochran has penned an article in Followup #6 called: "Take Responsibility" that imo is a must read for everyone(are you listening RichieP?) Thanks Bob! :) Here is Mr. Burkan's quote from his piece |
Take Responsibility for Yourself
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Here is that article by Bob Cochran from Follow Up Issue #6
Take Responsibility for Yourself Excerpt: Attachment 18003 Article continues... |
Pizzi,
Add this to your template....who knows....... Only MNR and only the following classes: C5000 C5000NW26M C5000NW16M C5000NW3Y C5000NW2Y C5000NW1Y C5000NW4L C5000NW3L C5000NW2L The spreadsheet reppresent the results of win and place since 10/3/2008 at 5.5f, 6f, 8f for the angle "A" |
Pizzi,
btw, I forgot to tell you that last night at MNR the winner of race #1 was an "A" with "FDK", Form Darkening plus other goodies....let me get out of here b4 I get yelled by Ted ----------- Pino: no question of yelling at anyone - I want to try to keep Topics in the RDSS Forum on a coherent theme. I moved several posts related to Angles to this new Topic in the Handicapping Forum: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6275 You are welcomed to start a Topic in the RDSS Forum on Angles if it relates to RDSS. Ted |
Sounds good
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Glad to see you're returning to action on a more low-fi level. Sounds like a good plan. It's onlly a matter of time now. Best of luck. PS - thanks for Satch & Ella, two of the greats. If you get a chance, some time check out 'West End Blues' - Satch and Fatha Hines at their best, imho. Cheers, B Jennet |
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