Ernie? I'll only be Ernie if you'll be Bert. Together we'll sing some Sesame Street songs...

"L" is such a lovely letter
It stands for licorice and lace
The letter "L" lights up your face
C'mon and "la-la-la-la-la" with me.

Bill,

I would use the first line - 60 days ago.

I do not use lines where the horse was never "in the race" and got beat by less than 7.75 lengths.I do not look at speed ratings
Naturally, I use races where the horse ran 1st,2nd or 3rd
I use lines where the horse showed early speed and got beat by more than 7.75 lengths

Great post For the Lead, but aren't these beaten lengths backwards? In other words, the horse must have been within 7.75 lengths at finish in order for you to use that line? Very interesting breakdown of win percentages based on which line was used!

Nope! I wrote it exactly the way I meant it and you read it correctly.

Consider this;

horse "A" is just floundering around the track showing nothing, but ends up 5th beaten 7 lengths. Do you think that is a good race? Do you really want to use that race to evaluate the horses chances today just because it was beat less than 7.75 lengths?

horse "B" leads the field past the second call and backs up from there getting beat by 10 lengths at the finish.

which horse has shown you that it is coming to form?

And early speed horse that backs up will give you all the final time you need if it is in a race it can win, whether it backed up in its' last race or not!

Pace of the Race
 

Hi For The Lead

What was the Pace of the Race?

Horse A is just floundering around the track and finishes
7 back OK. If the pace of the race is slow then his speed rating will be slow
and even if you use the line with 7 BL The line will rank the horse low on BLBL with little corollary support or probably not be in the top 5 of
total energy or primary line score so its a hide anyway
RDSS/VAL 4 are not velocity programs Its THE MATCH UP
Its not the pace of the horse Its the Pace of the RACE it ran against
that gets the readouts

I agree with Davenew I put in the line and let the program algorithms
match up the race Talk about Garbage In Garbage out is very important
in Velocity programs but Doc and Jim wrote energy programs
that take care of one move horses And slow horses ( against the pace of race) Its the match up

Thank you for your insight on your line selection and contender methods

Bill

There was no pace of race.
There was no race.
It was a hypothetical of two different horses.
Maybe not even in the same race.
It was about one line that is usable and one line that is not usable.
It was about FORM, that goes along with velocity, energy or the match up, which ever method you are using.

You need to know what impact the PACE OF RACE had on horse A and B performances.


Looking at all lines gives you the horses "Picture" this picture tells you if Pace of Race had a impact on where the horse finished. If TODAYS POR is the same, there is a very high probablity the result will be the same.



As stated Earlier. One line only tells you how a horse performed in ONE race. How the hell can you evaluate (hypothetical or otherwise) a horses ability using just ONE line.

Plus
 

Hi For The Lead

In your two horse example I would see horse A as having a zero race
The Sartin Methodology guidelines for form cycle analysis is to do
your Plus, Plus within a Zero , and Zero markings for each horse

So Horse A would get a ZERO and that line should not be used
So I would move down to the next most recent line and take
the best speed rating of the last three Doc shows in follow Up #70
an example of when Line 3 is good but lines 2 and 1 are zero bad
only then he will not Blindly use the third line
Attachment 20675

And of course we have the Black Border Warning from Follow Up 76
Attachment 20676
Now In the second case Horse B is showing something. It Is involved in the Pace of the race . but fades So horse B gets a Plus within a zero line
In the Sartin Methodology This horse is showing something in form
and using a Plus line in the next two comperable pacelines is valid
Good example Thanks

Scan
 

That is correct Charlie That is why what works in the methodology
is the match up. If you start from bottom to top or top line to bottom and do a Plus, Plus within a Zero and Zero markings, You will see a picture of the horses ability. You will see what speed rating and Pace of Race it run Plus ratings against and when it runs poorly against the Pace of Race

Bill

If we had a clapping emoticon i'd use it, because the above is spot on imho.

Correct Bill, If you do this you will get the horses "picture" I have no idea why Doc changed from advising people to do above to advising best of last three. He knew there was NO Balck Box and he also knew, a little brain work was required.

:confused: tbh.

He wanted people to do the ± 0 and + notations but very few would
He had the same problem with getting people to mark the need to lead horses
For whatever reason most people were just ignoring this step

If people are not willing to put in the hard work required (try short cuts) then it should come as no surprise most carry on losing, have a tiny ROI when they probably should have nice little income stream, give up or move on to another methodology.

OK. 9/26 Phil 8Th Race..

Which line to use...???

Each of the last 3 got progressively worse....but if you use line 2 or 3 hes probably tops..

What you think?

Look at All lines so you get a "picture" of the horses ability.

Looking at ALL lines. I can see at MTH the horses struggles, however, at places like Pha, Del, Inner, he is competitive.
Above may apply in this instance.

Looking at ALL lines you can see this horse performs well on muddy tracks


Can you see how i'm putting together a "picture" of the horse.


Now, to know whether this horse is a TRUE contender or not you need other information. That info is how this horse fits into TODAYS Match Up.

It's not rocket science.

Yes Charlie..this is true for match-up..
but this original post was for which pace-line to input...

There was a similar (meaning not three successive declines, but sub-par nevertheless) pattern in his bottom three races, then a sudden reversal into a 4 length win. The horse went from an 87 to a 100 SR, his peak. A 13 point improvement.

In his last appearance on this oval, the horse ran a 96, which if duplicated today would be a 16 point gain over the last race - not impossible given his previous uptrend cited above.

It's strictly a coincidence that this line has the highest SR of his last three races. What isn't a coincidence is that it was on this surface. also that two of the three races at MTH aren't good ones, I'll consider the Philly line to be his most recent. Were it his highest SR overall, I probably wouldn't go for it.

At this point in time, and without seeing any other entrants, the 3rd line down would be my choice. I would reserve the right to alter my choice were the competition provided - I'm never that wedded to my first representative pace line.

How can you know which line or lines to use if you don't have the FULL picture.

You need to reduce the guesswork.


I don't know, people need to go back to reading Yellow Manual imho.

Look. if people want to play silly games of "take a wild guess" which PL to use then carry on, If however, you want to take this game serious and maybe earn some money, go back and read the Old Yella.

It tells you how to handicap races using the The Match Up


Now, i'm done because as Voodoofan correctly stated, it is a waste of time and energy trying to convince the unconvinceable (meaning no point keep repeating what has been written)

Good skill.

BTW - I was too late to go back and get this point into my above post. For DRF 'capping, I use my own spreadsheet which has fields for me to make adjustments as per the "Pace Makes the Race" book.

Given the lack of DRF SR/VAR info, I would be forced to convert the Beyer fig to its appropriate final time, then make interior adjustments.

Also, although some are geared towards specific programs,you may find listening to the audio tapes useful too.



Good skill.

Good idea....its quite pleasant when your not here making people look like idiots or morons for not being matchers or asking for help with rdss..
All you do is copy and paste and bash people

Why dont you show us some of your vast knowledge and skills and put up a few races like others do...

mike,
line3 or line7. Too much figuring out what line to choose, you will chose the wrong one. The class in which the horse run the last 3 race does tell the story. Go for it mike you got gut, and don't forget the whys the trainer is moving the horse in this fashion adding a new jock at lower weight. I don't know the rest of the field but I would put 2 bucks on it just for fun.

cheers

Sorry can't ignore someone who quotes me or uses my name as i think it's rude to do so.



If telling you to do as Doc Sartin and other Pirco members advised makes you post stuff like above then i definitely am wasting my time and energy.


Be consistent and tell gl45 he is treating you like an idiot and moron too.

I choose line 2.....I see the horse in declining form as his last 3 races indicate whereby his TE is in a steady decline
and his %med has been increasing. Yes, using line 2 RDSS puts him in contention but I see another negative which is:
Comparing his original Ist and 2nd call times to the 6F track profile Ist and 2nd call times
that Bill has provided shows that for line 2 the horse cannot run to the track profile:

Track Profile times (range) Ist Call : 21.1 - 22.4 2nd Call: 44.1 - 45.3

Mr. Lion Attack: Ist Call: 22.6 2nd Call: 45.7

Mr. Lion Attack is out of range and he just may be a pussycat.

Using line 3 would put him on top of the RDSS food chain and I don't feel he belongs there. Line 2 is a generous compromise.

In any case race 8 is coming up soon and we shall see.

(I guess that this should have been opened under a new thread)

Ernie

Thanks Ernie

I have your Top two also


Good luck if your playing.

Yet a few posts above, earlier today you wrote:
"I have no idea why Doc changed from advising people to do above to advising best of last three."

So, what should we do - as Doc advises or as you advise? You seem to want it both ways.

R8 is a pass for me, I don't like anyone other than the 1 and not at chalk.

Ernie

At prices i'd just probably bet #2 and Box 1 and 2

All the best if your playing.

Well, Well Well, GIVE ME A TIME OUT. Looks like the Lion Attacked !.....so much for losing form. Congrats to the winners.

Ernie

The horse picture told you it fitted the race picture if i'm not mistaken.

Well done winners.

Mike
 

Hello from Sioux City Iowa
Just pulled into Truck Stop Heaven -Well thats the name any way

Mike I would use line 3
here is my scren shot I added the Plus Plus with a Zero and Zero ( X= Plus within a Zero)
notations along with a binder box

GS
Bill

Very nice demonstration Bill

Maybe Ted could add this function for users Bill.

Thank You
 

Hey Guys

Also If you could . Look at the Adjusted Pace Of Race That Doc/Val 4/RDSS
is giving to Lion Attack in line 3 22 44.4 and 108.6
If you look at my SARTIN ENERGY PARAMETERS worksheet
This race looks like its on the fast Pace of Race side of town

Since Its the same track distance and surface I thought it was interesting
Bill

I think
 

I think he is going to put it on RDSS 2.0
in some form

I don't know if he will allow the user to make the calls
I believe it will be based on in the money finishes beating half the field
maybe up close at 1 or 2 calls but it probably will be His call not
the personal taste of each user

Its a shame because I think thinking about lines is a very personal
thing We are showing that in this thread
I feel having something to make this judgment is vital

I once used a windows version of Val 4 that allowed me to
make the notations I don't think anything ever became of the program but I know its possible to make

If it is in software Bill people can either use it or ignore it, just like i suppose some do with other variables.

Anyway, gotta go for now so i'll catch you later


Good skill

Older post
 

Here is a older post on the subject of + +/0 and 0 races
and if Ted could add it to RDSS

Plus Plus within a Zero and Zero

Mike,
told you so. Line 3 or 7 would do the trick.

Thanks Bill ( brought a smile to my face )