Bill
DEEP in the stretch he got vicious.

He had a bit of "freak" in him :D

btw nice pop on that winner of the big SA race yesterday buddy! Keep focused on your contest.


Richie
"She's a super freak" - Rick James

Wow !
Cn

Raul
 

Hey bill finally I got to the board

Great pace analysis Rich. And we see this match up about once every three to five race cards. If you are there when it happens it's a nice score, and since you are not dealing with an early horse it's always a nice overlay. Those early horses that collapse at the pace pressure are carrying all of the public's money on their backs.
This could have come out of Brohamer's Book. You sure you weren't a ghost writer for that one Rich??
You are right Rich, I would be looking to bang this Trifecta, and be looking for the Superfecta if there were one. Those are the bets you want to catch with some money on them. Nothing major but a few $5 Superfectas will work great here. A few $10 Trifectas are nice also. I don't hit them for those amounts normally but when the pace looks like this they are really strong bets. The bulk of the bet still goes on the Win/Exacta but if the Tri or Super hit it's like hitting 10 winners for nice prices.

Charlie

Hey Raul!

What's up man? Great you signed up here. I hear you did real well couple of weeks back with Bill at the track buddy. Way to go:) Sorry I couldn't get out there that day. I was with this kool chick up the block and before u know
it silk scarves came out and ...... umm lemme stop here :eek:

Hope you and the Mrs. are doing great!

Stay cool
Richie

Back to business // Clarity
 

Couple of things please:

1) after I get my "positional bets" from the bl/bl screen I insist they must also be top 2 l/ep. ok if they are NOT and I mean BOTH of them I PASS the race. If one is and the other is NOT I do NOT bet the one horse that is. I PASS the race. When I bet these "Battle" races I NEED it ALL to come together. PATIENCE


2) 5f pacelines are the killer of readouts with the Sartin programs. They will screw up your readouts every time and I STRONGLY suggest you avoid using them like the plague man. Go back to testerday's Beu race and for the 6 horse we used the f6 on put that other 76 speedrating in from the top line. It is a win line from 5f. Watch what happens to the readouts. You wind up betting on a horse that ran stone dead last and lose the 20/1 winner. I would NOT have used that line even if f6 picked it. 5f pacelines are the KISS OF DEATH . You have been warned.

3) the overall or historical running styles of the horses means NOTHING in working the races as I have laid out. The ONLY thing that matters is his style in the paceline you are using. That matters ONLY in identifying the battle race.

Once you have worked the race in "battle mode" and u get to the scbl "positional" part if the horse( s) you are betting turn out to be one who has a need to lead style where "conventional" pace analysis says "he cant get the lead so throw himout" BET the horse. If he matches on both
1- furthest out positionally on scbl
2- top 2 l/ep
BET THE HORSE TRUST ME BET THE HORSE


4) PATIENCE - Charlie is just about dead on when he says u might get ONE play every few cards. To be HONEST because I DEMAND everything be right for ME it is even less than that. Good things will come to you if you can WAIT on this ok?

safe day and good skill at the windows

Richie

strange observation which takes away from the NATURAL ability of the particular horse at adaptation. Many can change styles in reponse to pace pressure, many cannot. Blanket statement is a bit too inclusive

Rich,

Once again, that was two really great workups. Though they don't come up often, if you are there when they do and can recognize the conditions it's a real nice score on a solid bet. The only way the public hits these is when they pick the color of the jockeys socks so even a win only bet pays nicely.

Couple of questions
1. Does it matter whether the race is a route or a sprint?
2. How much does field size have to do with it?
3. Why at least 3 NTL horses. Will this work with 2 in a small field?

I have seen this matchup many times. Unfortunately until now I was only able to identify the conditions after the race went off. They always result in nice payouts. I have missed some really nice exactas because I failed to identify this Pace battle race. Maybe I'll get better at recognizing them now. If not I'll be back with 20 more questions!

Charlie

It is absoultely strange. Makes no "sense". can't do that. etc etc. ok.

I want NO part of natural anything.

I got a bit of "freak" in me to be honest.

here are the pp's from that 42 dollar winner yesterday he does NOT show even ONE line where he made a gain positionally in any race "conventional" or NATURAL thinking says " he wins wire to wire cant get the lead today OUT" . Yet in yesterday's race he closed like a runaway freight train :eek:

Thank you "common sense public" !!

My RECORDS of the method I posted are complete and cover NUMEROUS tracks for over 7 months now.

to each his own

Richie

Charlie


1) absolutely NOT 5.5f thru 9f dirt and turf

2) NOTHING

3) THREE are needed otherwise way too many races come ino play

Richie

Penn National 2/11 Race 5
 

The "Battle" is on !

horse 1 paceline

horse 2 paceline

horse 3 paceline

horse 4 paceline

horse 5 paceline

horse 6 paceline

horse 7 paceline

horse 8 paceline

calc and stopping we see a scramble to the 1c and 2c

ONLY horses NOT involved are the 5 and 8

removing the 5 and 8 ( brought back later) lets "matchup" the earlies man

top te - 2

top epr - 2

top l/ep - 4

screen shot showing the 4 as best l/ep

the 2 and 4 are the winners "early" the 5 and 8 are brought back now

FINAL contenders 2-4-5-8

bl/bl showing these contenders with the # 4 and # 8 as the BETS postionally according to scbl

can I get my CONFIRMATION to fire on the 4 and 8?
YES they are ranked 1 and 2 l/ep

screen shot

Hammer Time
 

Everything in this race has just fallen in my lap. In addition because there are only 4 contenders left the "Scatter" exacta is also in play

4,8 / 2,5

Win Bets 4 and 8

PLEASE let this race remain intact with NO scratches. PLEASE

Look I am not afraid to lose a race publicly ok? I am pounding the **** out of this race man no BS

PLEASE let this race remain intact

safe weekend
Rich

Richie,If that race is from Penn you may be out of luck,they are predicting 8-12 inches up this way starting this afternoon.Jeff

That might just qualify as a Scratch. Hopefully this snow misses us??????

Charlie

The latest prediction is for the snow to hit us here in NY at about midnight. Hopefully it won't hit PA much earlier than that so this race looks like it should go off before any significant snow hits PA. Just keep your fingers crossed and with a little luck the race goes of without a hitch. Keep your legs and eyes crossed and maybe we hit this one nice.

Charlie

correct me if I'm wrong but putting in just about ANY extracted line in a sprint scenario will give that data a big late advantage. The majority of routes, from almost any animal, due the very different nature of energy distribution, will skew the readings in that direction. Just try it.

100% correct.

EXACTLY what I am looking for in THIS race type.
Rich

if you compared actualy sprint lines from this same animal, it projects it to go up and battle the front and even from those lines, this one might be questionable. Using a single ROUTE projection to superimpose that ONE line on this horse's NORMAL sprint energy distribution is a bit odd. With this kind of trend in total energy?? strange when you view the total energy of the others. I was always under the impression that when an animal is OVERCOMING the style at a certain distance (contra) that is HAS TO HAVE A TOTAL ENERGY SURPLUS to do that.

I live about 2 hours from PA and it's already started here.CT has cancelled tonight's card .Jeff

There you go again. Thinking "logically". It's ok. Most everyone else is too!

All the stuff you write about might have been valid in the 1990's. NOT today baby.

You fail to understand that when I tell you none of this matters I mean what I say Tim.

It's the "FREAK" in me.

I dont want to go back and forth with you ok? I keep telling you its all good. I will let the PRE RACE selections speak for themselves. Everything else is just TALK anyway.

so far I have posted 2 races using this method BEFORE the race ran

2 winners

1 at CT $ 12.20 - btw that was an xtracted horse
1 at Beu $ 42.60 - a horse who defies all LOGIC and common sense capping


Tonight is race 3

Richie

the Beulah horse was a logical progression of three lines improving......only suprise there was the price

IMPROVING early is one of the hallmarks of handicapping, being progressively able to contend further into contests

when did horesracing fundamentally change? THE LATEST HOT BOOK from the DRF press, by a well respected author Klein is called "The Power of Early."

Did someone discover a new way to run? Energy distributions have changed? Sprinters don't win the majority of races at or near the front end? Routers don't run and win as sustained pressers anymore?

Exercise physiology is the same today as it has been since the first person ran away from a predator. Huey Mahl's work on energy (the hallmark of what we are ALL discussing here by the way) is not different. I would wager that if you took a classic race, and ran the lines back years and years through a program like ENGEN, you would find the vast majority of them ran the same way energy wise.

What is so different?

ummmm thats not the winner. Wrong horse. Winner is the 3 at 20/1

unreal only you can take a thread based on looking late and infuse Klein and the power of early. Please.

that must be why it did not make sense.

The latter comment relates to the fact of the fundamental nature of most contests

another factor
 

IF that Penn National race even goes, considering the bad weather predictions (which OFTEN makes one change their perspectives) horses off the pace are going to have an even MORE difficult time with those inclement conditions. The Clean Silks Syndrome is usually a big factor on extremely off going is it not?

Doesn't have the total energy to overcome the style and now the weather is a new obstacle......

I am searching, so far in vain, to try to understand here, but cannot get around what the pp lines are saying.

Result
 

the 7 is the winner at 5/1

I ran 2nd with the 8 at 8/1 couldnt get him late

the 1/2 # 2 was non factor as was my 2nd bet the 4

I lost my win bets plus the exacta

ok

Richie

At least the 8 gave you a run for the cash only lost by 3\4.More importantly you shed some more light on the subject matter.Jeff