Mike and Pino great job,I would like to see you guys do Tampa as Parx
has short fields.

parx starts
 

heres parx last 2 days...


I will try to keep up with Tampa too...but if anyone wants to help with the input please do so...cause i might not be able to

Just clear data to start Tampa going..

If there's anything you want added to chart..ask

The next few weeks will be just data entry.....hopefully we can see a trend start

mike

Parx 12/27
 

races 1-5

12/27

races 6-9

Tampa 12/28

Races 1-5

Tampa 12/28

Races 6-10

Lite scratches might not be here for card..

Prx after 4 days...

Looking at exactas that were hit....

only 2 didn't have favorite as a contender

Tampa 12/29

Races 1-5

Races 6-10

Tampa 12/30

Races 1-5

Tampa 12/30

Race 6-10

Hi Mike,

Hope you and your family had a great holiday season. Just wanted to note your change in template here - using $2 bets and mutuel prices, and featuring only winners. I'll try to look at the full chart when I can.

A couple of things that might be worth thinking about when testing different tracks for exacta metrics are a couple which are somewhat interrelated - the track's average exacta mutuel and the ratio of playable to non-playable (by payoff size), or as you and Pino put it, whether a races is B or NB. I don't know what the cause is, but Parx has one of the lowest average exacta mutuels of all tracks at $54 and change. By comparison, MNR was $71. It could be a tough place to make an exacta profit. You may already know about this, but if you're interested in checking into this subject, Bris' 'Handicapper's Edge' section has an 'At-A-Glance' pull-down menu, featuring a number of stats for each track which includes avg. exacta payoff.

Cheers,

B Jennet

Thxs BJ..Hope yours was good also....

Using survey for win bets and exactas..if you or someone else can take it apart and find some trends to play then go get em..
Tampa and Parx are just to keep me and Pino busy till MTR starts up in Mar...or to help others for a jump start..

Thxs for the info on exactas....
But unless someone can study what it entails then you don't really know if the larger payouts are total chaos or it can be identifiable..

mike

Tampa 1/4/12

Races 1-5

Tampa 1/4

Races 6-10

Agree
 

Hi Mike,

Sounds good. Re exactas, these are some of the things I've been thinking about. I don't know how accurate this is, but NP seems to me to have performed better, in terms of ROI, at smaller tracks with lower classes of racing of the kind that's featured at MTR and EVD, and worse at with the classiest types of venues such as SAR and KEE, and something close to its average at most other locations.

Part of the advantage you're getting at a small track is that big money isn't arbitraging the exacta pools (if you remember Beyer wrote about these guys back in the '70s calling them 'chartists' who simply made money charting exacta payoff inefficiencies, with no handicapping at all), so you end up getting better payoffs than you would if you were betting into a bigger pool. (The exacta pool size I was seeing at MNR seemed to average around 7k). If just as an example, you look at the exactas at PARX (which I think has a very sharp betting public), even the big exactas hit by NP were underlaid according to the odds (using Dick Mitchell's old formula of [odds on A]* [odds on B+1]*2 to calculate fair pay on a $2 bet). In the age of the computer, you almost never see these kind of mistakes at large tracks.

This kind of racing also features somewhat more erratic horses, which produce the kind of chaos you mention. But I think NP has proven it can it hit these. Obviously we need to build a model (or angle if you like) that can take advantage of this.

I don't think of this in terms of a trend, although I wouldn't argue with anyone who's looking for them, but, since NP is fairly stable and the given betting public for a track should also be stable (although what changes the most is the nature and size of the fields),I'm thinking more in terms of looking for common characteristics of track-types, race-types, and class-types where NP can succeed. I'm going to keep searching.

Best of luck and thanks again for your contribution.

Cheers,

B Jennet

Parx update

Tampa Update as of 1/8



Heres net sorted for analysis...cane you see anything?

Tampa 1/11

Races 1-5

Races 6-10

Parx up-date as of 1/9

Wow, pretty tough sleddin all around, unless you limit betting to 4+ male only races claimers and up or races at 6.5 and 7 furlongs.

Comments
 

Hi Mike,

Thanks for your continuing work with NP. I had a chance to look at PARX, but not yet at TAM. Obviously, it's continuing to be a tough place for NP to succeed. If we figure that, for NP to do well, it needs to be used at a track where it both does well and the crowd does badly. MNR is a good example. Compared to PARX, where NP contenders hit at .64 (although, admittedly, 99 races is a small sample size), well below it's average of .74, at MNR, NP contenders had a hit rate of .8.

But I think the most important thing to remember about NP, is that it's not a powerful enough model to produce profits from a wide variety of races or tracks or against a sharp betting public, like PARX. In fact, I think it would be tough for any handicapper to well at PARX, regardless of their style or method, based on a look at this sample. NP can only do well at places where large mutuels (and exacta payoffs) are fairly common, like MNR, to make any profit at all.

You mentioned looking for patterns, and I wish you luck with that, but I think simply looking at the average NP hit-rate and average win and exotics prices would be a good index of whether that track is worth pursuing.

Speaking of patterns, I haven't taken a close look at this, but it appears to me, just between PARX and MNR, that NP contenders that are morning-line favorites have a hit-rate of about 50%. Might be worth a play at decent odds.

Thanks again.

Cheers,

B Jennet

thanks guys for looking into his...and yes..its tough!!!

Tampa 1/13

Races 1-5

Races 6-10

anybody's playing Tampa today
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=Wj_OmtqVLxY

I'm doing at least 3 races at TAM (along with other PAIHL Contest teammates): races 5, 8 and 10.

I'll post in Selections after scratches. I like Tampa!

Ted

NOTE THIS on all 8.5 furs Tampa
need to include ties

Tampa 1/15

Races 1-5

no 8.5 today :(

races 6-10

Opportunity
 

These are mostly the last 3 cards for each track..

Will you be there when it knocks?


Comments?

Tampa 1/19

Races 1-5

Races 6-10

Tampa 1/20

Races 1-5

Races 6-10

Tampa 1/21

races 1-5

Races 6-10

Race 11