mess
 

Hi Jim

I worked the race too I threw out the 7
My picks were the 9 and the 2 but wih the short odds I passed

I did not like the race because of the sprinters and the 6
I see you and Chuckg went deep on the 6 for lines

yet you did not on the 7 both line 1 and 5 puts the seven on top

H1A NF
H2 Press Line 1 +
H3 Fulcrum E line 1 (+)
H4 Scrat
H5 sprinter Sus
H6 No recent form
H7 Sus no recent rt form
H8 Early NTL LIne 1 (+)
H9 Press Line 1 +

Attachment 32139

Attachment 32140

Attachment 32141

I think I didn't reach down on #7 because lines 2,3,and 4 were not good. I actually thought about the first line but it was a sprint. This was a bad race to do. Should not have tried it. Jim

I hope you don't mind my offering some insight.

IF you are going to go back to line 5 for the #6 horse, then you HAVE TO GO BACK to line 5 for the #7 horse. Keep in mind that I would eliminate BOTH horses and like Bill V, I would have PASSED this race. Let me explain.

The #6 horse shows nothing except ALW races. They are "state bred", but still ALW races. What that means is this. The horse has not been offered "FOR SALE" by way of a claiming race that shows anywhere in the past performances. When a horse suddenly shows up "FOR SALE" for the lowly price of $4,500 it generally indicates a "negative drop" in class. That's a bad thing.

By way of contrast, let's look at the #7 horse. You are correct in not using the last line, which is a sprint race. You were also correct that lines 2,3 and 4 were bad. BUT WHY were they bad?

There is more than one way for a horse to drop down in class. The first is the easy to recognize #6 horse. EVERYBODY recognizes that as a class drop.
In the case of the #7 horse, the class drop is harder to identify if you don't know what you are looking for or at.

Take note that in its' last 4 races there are no conditions. That means the horse was running in "OPEN" claiming races with NO CONDITION. Compared to the races prior to those races, the last four races were higher in class because there was no condition. Today, the horse is dropping back down to a "condition" claiming race.

When you begin to handicap a race, the first thing you should do is read the conditions. Now this isn't going to help you if you don't know what the condition means or if you don't recognize the conditions when you see them in the past performances. If you are not familiar with the various conditions, this is something you should learn.

Below are the two horses I have talked about here and I have marked the areas I discussed.

Hope this helps.

11/20-Fl 2nd Race
 

$100 w #3

:(:(:( Bad bet, should have hid #3.But it looked like a strong favorite.

11/20-Fl 3rd Race
 

$50 w #3
$20 W #5
$30 Pl #5

:):):) Win and Place

11/20-Fl 5th Race
 

$50 W #1
$20 W #8
$30 Pl #8

***

:(:(:( Loss

11/27-FL 5TH Race
 

$50 w #8
$20 w #6
$30 pl #6

:(:(:( Loss

The winning horse.

No Clue
 

I don't see it Jimbob
Horse usually just presses the pressers
not much else. Today it came from way back
These were not very good horses

H1 1-22 Sp1
H2 1-29 S1
H3 1-20 Ug
H4 1-6 S1
H5 1-10 E/EP7
H6 1-11 EP3
H7 1-10 S1
H8 1-10 SP2
H9 1-5 EP6
H10 1-13 P1
H11 1- 10 E8

Attachment 32288

I agree no way I would have used this one as a contender.I always throw out 20/1 morning line horses.

Jim

most if not all 20/1 ML horses don't have a representative recent
usable pace line

Barb picked up a nice winner the other day with this horse a 20/1 ML

Attachment 32295
I worked the race and called this horse a E/EP7 there was no other Early
contender except the 7 who was a E1
I did not use line 3. It is comperable but the last two races are poor
the horse pressed the early leader but faded so it will not rate well

Attachment 32296

I passed this race but its important to understand each horses
ESP running style and energy excertion abilitys
even if you don't use a pace line

Lets say I used horse 2 line 3 being the E/EP 7
It does get the jump on the 5 and 7 my only other contenders
and went wire to wire

Attachment 32297

11/28-fl 7th
 

Hid #5
$50 W #8
$20 W #7
$30 PL #7

:(:(:( Loss

11/29-Fl 5th Race
 

$50 W #11
$20 W #2
$30 Pl #2

:(:(:( loss

11/29-Ded 1st Race
 

$50 w #6
$50 w #5

:(:(:( Loss

11/29-DED 2nd Race
 

$50 w #8
$20 w #10
$30 w #10

:):):) Win

Congrats, your month was awesome, let me be the first to thank you for your participation. You can maybe still come out on top, you definetly deserve it.


PATRICK

Thanks a lot Patrick. Jim