Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - 2016 Kentucky Derby Prep Races

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster (Post 103158)

Looking at the PPs from last Saturday I thought it was interesting to see the moves made both in lengths gained and horses passed:

At Aqueduct Trojan Nation made up position and lengths in its maiden win. Looked long and hard at it, but left it off ticket at 88/1, ugh; I overheard one patron complained after the race that his neighbor was an "Out of Work-former USC student...;)

At SA, see all the blue lines in the PPs for Exaggerator when allowed to run in mid to late pack, even won a big purse on the lead at the Delta Downs short track;

Keeneland set up for a closer (the two earlies had EPR's of +5 and +10) and look who had all the moves, Brody's Cause, My Man Sam and Cherry Wine finished 1-2-3.

Could be a lot of horses running from far back at Churchill Downs. Without seeing the entire field any horse that is versatile enough to run mid pack should have an advantage if the Derby has its usually number of speed balls trying to crack 111 for the first six furlongs. If Whitmore, Creator, and/or Suddenbreakingnews pick up more points in the Arkansas Derby, this will knock out Laoban-an early pace horse from the Blue Grass stakes; which will leave Danzing Candy, Nyquist, and Outwork as the only early pace runners in this year's Derby. So does Nyquist have a huge probability to wire the field????

Bill..

Thanks for your work-up of these races...

Final fraction in conjunction of early pace expended

Many focus exclusively on the closing fraction when evaluating Derby contenders- stretching out to compete at the Derby distance of a mile and 1/4. But these type of analyses can be "frivolous at best" and deceiving in determining the intrinsic ability of horses getting the "extra furlong."

All horses can run a mile and 1/4 distance but each contender can sustained its own ability running at a certain individual early pace.

A final 3/8 fraction of 37 and change is a parameter of gauge but only if it's evaluated with the early pace energy expended; does the final 3/8 fraction have significant value. It's the same method of pace evaluations that the Sartin Methodology is based on. Final times only has significance if one considers the match-up of the early pace; and not the ranking of the final time of races.

Here are some examples of some of the top Derby winners of the past who did not run under 38.0 fractions for their final 3/8 fractions. They ran the final 3/8 in 38.0 BUT after setting fractions in 1:09 and change.....

Attachment 40287

Attachment 40289
Attachment 40288

I have included the past performance for Captain Bodgit from the same year as Silver Charm in the 1997 Kentucky Derby to point out that Silver Charm had a final 3/8 fraction of 38.60 after a scorching 6F in 1:09 was just good enough to best Captain Bodgit who had a final 3/8 fraction in 35.80 but after a mediocre 112.40 for 6 furlongs. Silver Charm's last 3/8 fraction was almost 3 full seconds slower than Captain Bodgit but Silver Charm expended a 6F early pace fraction more than 3 seconds faster than Captain Bodgit.

Maybe this match-up can serve as a bench mark for an imaginary inflection point for the parameters for early pace expenditures versus last 3/8 final fraction ability. (just my two cents;))

Quote:

Originally Posted by lone speed (Post 103161)

Bill..

Thanks for your work-up of these races...

Ah, yes, those n'er do wells from the University of Spoiled Children...

Derby Early Speedsters

Well, based on the graded races since last Breeders Cup here are the horses who might want the lead in the Derby. The light purple times are the fastest in the first three calls. Then there is some guy who wants tickets to the Derby with a fast sprinter that might go nuts for 6 furlongs on the lead. It the races goes anywhere near 112.00 on a fast track some of these might have a chance, otherwise, its no joy:confused:

Looking a little farther into it, find the horses that break in the top 2 or 3 consistenly to see how many might attempt the lead.

BTW I do not have a points count so there are probably several here with no chance of starting.

Enjoy

Re: Nyquist. don't forget that he has already proven that he can win off the pace, as attested to by his come from behind win in the BC Juvenile. He does not need to lead, which is a really good thing IMHO. I included his 7 furlong win in case someone wanted to project it to 8.5 or 9 furlongs, so if he chose to go to the lead, he would leave crispy critters in his wake at least until the top of the stretch, but then look out for the bobbers and weavers coming from the parking lot and possibly a true garrison finish!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster (Post 103166)

Maybe I will borrow Sureshotlink's idea and patent these phrases...At least I will get pay pennies and then some in this endeavor..:D

Ted wrote:

Quote:

Kid Cruz channels Zenyatta and swoops in from Neptune for 2nd or 3rd

Michael Wrona the new official race caller of Santa Anita; calling the stretch run of Exaggerator's exhilarating move in the Santa Anita Derby.

Quote:

"Exaggerator has gone straight past them like if they were tied to the rail!"

Points total of top 20 Derby contenders

Here are the Kentucky Derby Points Total as of 4/09/2016

Attachment 40291
Attachment 40292

Horses circled in red color are those who might move up in points against Cupid in the Arkansas Derby.

P.S.
Bill, you might want to add Cupid to the list of early pace horses.;)

Cupid is already on the list, see line 3.

Thanks for the current point totals. I will find a place for them on the sheet.

Quote:

Originally Posted by lone speed (Post 103168)

Maybe I will borrow Sureshotlink's idea and patent these phrases...At least I will get pay pennies and then some in this endeavor..:D

Ted wrote:

Michael Wrona the new official race caller of Santa Anita; calling the stretch run of Exaggerator's exhilarating move in the Santa Anita Derby.

Can you say "THREE-PETE"???:)

Great link to Derby "info" galore!!!

A link to a great Derby contribution by Bill Finley.

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com.../tdn160414.pdf

Great link to an early look of the top 12 Derby contenders with past performances and some performance numbers by Equineline and Thorograph.

Kudos to Bill Finley and Winstar.....:cool:

P.s. Bill Lyster, another site for horse racing news....;)