Knowing this, would you be able to confidently toss the horse from the contender mix? Or do you still have to include off a previous good race due to its class and pace and measure the others against it?

Here you go Jeebs


Attachment 43695


My thoughts
This one is scary for me, 278-day layoff after 2 bad races.
The workouts are slow and the spacing is a little erratic.
This is an older horse. That Saratoga race line 3 looks slighty overly adjusted but the EPR-LPR-TPR seem okay for him
With Saratoga coming, maybe they are looking to dump him.
Thinking some body will think he is a Saratoga special
The horse could not win for 32,000 So maybe they want to try 25000
on the comeback.Something about that Saratoga line does not seem right
Other wise the drop make sense to me.

This is one based on the information above I probably would probably keep and hope my two horse bet takes care of him.

His last race was on an off track so a throw out and he's going from state bred to open company so the drop makes sense. Additionally if low odds he be a toss as its not worth the risk, however for a DD ,P-3 etc. I probably keep it. The layoff, works and being a 7 yr. old are also a concern.

Using other information specifically on the trainer would give me other info, such as his ability off layoffs, drops etc. That would help to make a final decision. I know this trainer is good but what I don't know is his ability for this situation. That would cement my final determination.

Great seeing you posting again Jeebs.
Mitch44

That Sar line appears to be a lifetime best. If so being that he is a 7yr old and coming off a long layoff I wouldn't use it. Although I don't like using a sly line on a fast trk in this case I would use line1. I do note that this horse has won off layoffs of 71 and 53 days however with a weak workout pattern I would stand against it.
Tim

All State
 

Hi Mitch
Every race since the 32000 claimer when it was claimed
are state bred restricted , today's ( 6/14) race is a cl25 state bred.

Tim
I noticed the 2 positive races following layoffs too.
I would stay off line 1 . It is a off track and a 0 race
It is the race that put the horse in the barn.
Thanks
Bill

Your correct Bill as I missed that in looking at the conditions. For me this horse has one poor race which was his last. His next to last was his best effort within chart while up in class. The up in class while reaching a top at a longer distance may have undone him or it may be the last race on an off track for the layoff. As you said earlier Bill the long absent and suspicious workouts are questionable.

That makes the drop basically only 1 level and not that suspicious to me. The layoff and workouts are suspicious through, as Tim pointed out the horse has performed well after a layoff twice prior.

Again I would consult the trainer stats, perhaps this trainer is new for this horse which doesn't show here and may be poor with layoffs and the odds for a final decision on this one, things I normally do.
Mitch44

Bill I did note the off track and zero line but if anyone though this horse should go in the program what line would you give. Line 2 has the 2nd best perceptor number but the horse never was involved in the race so I would not use it. Line 3 I already ruled out so now we are back to line 4 a yr ago at FL. where again it just plodded around as the fav. to finish 3rd. The trainer is good with layoffs and is one of the leading trainers at FL but to me there are too many negatives to support the horse. As Tom Brohamer always said go with the percentages. If it beats you so be it.
Tim

Sure Tim , I understand your perspective.
I would have used line 4 , This is an older horse so
he ran those figures as a six year old gelding. They are very consistent for the most part. Yes the race was at Fl. But the public get it heavy to 1.4 to 1 and made it the favorite.
The race that day was race 7 so it probably was one of the feature races on that card. I would use line 4 to rate the total look / shape of the race

Good Skill
Bill

Wonder where it would have come up using line 4. Using the Marion Jones, Vic Palermo and Bruce Jorgenson approach that if you are going to make a horse a contender then you must give it every chance to win then I agree line 4 would be it. Also as a reminder Marion also said don't put a horse in the computer that you won't put your money on if it comes up. Interesting choice in this case.
Tim

Lines
 

Here you go, Tim
I entered a line for every horse. Horse 5 was scratched I marked all 4 line for horse 1
Line 3 rates horse 1 best followed closely by line 2.
Line 1 is a bad line, Line 4 is rated very badly, so the danger of using a good line here is justified based on the results.

Attachment 43700

Attachment 43701

Attachment 43704

Attachment 43703