As the Doc taught when it comes to higher prices horses, if they are in the top 3 tiers that is good enough since BL/BL is the prime corollary by itself.. If the longer price horse is tiered 4th or 5th then you must look for some corollary support before making a bet. Odds alone doesn't justify a bet As Mitch like to say all long shots are created equal.
Tim

Here's a little drill that Tom Brohamer use to throw out to the group. When trying to determine whether to wager on a horse take a piece of paper and divide it in half. On one side list all the pros for betting the horse and on the other list all the cons for not betting the horse. You don't have to do it on every horse since what you are doing is training yourself to recognize positives and negatives in the pps. I believe its on his audio tapes. If I remember correctly there was something about just because not being a reason. Check out those types since there are some great stuff on them when class drops are nrgative.
Tim

I just noticed that I misquoted Mitch. It should read all longshots are NOT created equal. Sorry Mitch don't beat up on me lol.
Tim

I guess I should open both eyes when I type. The last line should read Check out those tapes since there is some great stuff on them including Tom explaining when class drops are negative. I'm putting on the dunce cap and going to the corner now.
Tim

Alright time is up ,now get back out here.
Mitch44

Thanks Bill V.
 

Bill V asked me to comment on this race if I was feeling up to it, so I’m taking a few minutes to do exactly that.

For those of you that have read my writings here “http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11449”, you know the first thing I do when looking at a race is eliminate the most probable losers. That means horses with a Morning Line of 20/1 or greater are eliminated. This is not to say that these horses never win. In fact, they do win about once in twenty races, IF you are fortunate enough to isolate that one winner. Good Luck!
The other thing I eliminate are horses that have not raced in the last ninety days. Again, this is not to say these horses never win. In fact, they do win once in twenty races, so again, you need to be fortunate enough to isolate that horse.
I will also remind everyone that I use the old school methodology of using the last line if it is a “+” or “(+)” race. If it is not and there is no legitimate excuse for the bad performance, the horse is eliminated.
I guess I should also remind everyone that I handicap to find the ONE horse I believe will win the race, not choose from among five contenders with two horses at high odds. In fact, in today’s horse racing world there are many, many races that only have five or six horse fields. Does that mean the entire field are contenders?
With all of that in mind, I’ll run down the horses in the race.

1 – NO LINE. Last line is a poor race with no excuse
2 – LAST LINE. Last line is a “(+)” race
3 – NO LINE. Last race is a poor line and I see no legitimate excuse for it.
4 – NO LINE. In the last ninety days the horse shows only a sprint race and the only route race it has had was 205 days ago.
5 – NO LINE. Last race is a poor performance with no legitimate excuse and even if there was, the second line back is no better.

6 – I’ll come back to this horse.

7 – NO LINE. This horse has a ML of 30/1 and was eliminated from the outset.

Ok, before I go to the #6 horse I have a word about the conditions of this race. They are “FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON 2 RACES”.
Now, the primary condition is for horses that have never won a race other than maiden, claiming, starter or state bred. The racing secretary then adds OR which have never won two races. The reason for the add on is so the race will fill with enough horses for the race to run, otherwise the race would be canceled. The better horses in this condition are the horses with more than one win. Why? Horses with just one win have only beat a field of maidens.

Now, the #6 would not get a line from me because its’ only route race is 99 days ago. So at this point I would have just one horse/contender with a line. Not very encouraging. In looking at the #6 horse its’ lifetime record is 3 wins and 3 seconds from 7 starts. Nice record. In addition, it has 4 lifetime races on a fast track. It won 3 or those races and ran second in the other. Again, nice record. Is there a horse in the race with a better record? NO! The #6 horse is going off at 3/5. Do you want to bet against it? I don’t. Do you want to bet on it? I don’t. As it turned out, this horse won and the only horse I gave a line to ran second.

That takes care of my comments on the race. Thanks for reading them.

Glad that you are better
 

ForTheLead..

Thanks for your detailed analysis with respect to the conditions of the race and how one can benefit from this knowledge.

It is always a pleasure reading your detailed contributions and postings.

Take Care and stay well.....:)

Five contenders:


While there are many short fields in todays racing with too many tracks and not enough horses to go around and foaling rates dropping, it is absolutely no fault of Sartin.


His theory of using 5 contenders were for record keeping purposes and for those wishing to play EX's, Tri's or other exotic bets. Record keeping is a must to measure one's own performance and to rate whether that performance is improving or declining. Without record keeping your chance of success is greatly reduced.


Most winners I know do both; that is they use 5 contenders regardless of field size and keep records. I seriously doubt any newbie can conquer the Sartin mythology without these guidelines. Success can not be obtained by a hap hazard approach or avoiding proven concepts, guidelines and Sartin recommendations.


Mitch44

Hi Lone speed Nice to hear from you again
Thanks for the well wishes

Horses
 

Hello FTL

Thank you for going over the race for us.

I wanted to explain my line choices as they are a little different than yours.
although I am close, which makes me encouraged

Horse 1. I used line 2. I see line 1 is a 0 race, The excuse I use is last race in a form cycle.
For me there is a type of horse were I will excuse if the last line is the last line in a form cycle
Horse 1 fits the pattern, When I see line 2 is a + race but line 1 is a 0 race
Then the horse is freshened ( off 28-40) days, I will go to the + paceline if it's within 90 days.

Horse 2 Line 1 is a + paceline

Horse 6 I went to line 3 because of its a + pace line
I excuse the line 1 and 2 because they are the wrong distance (sprints)
I forgave the over 90-day guidelines because of the new form cycle
positive of two sprints and route 3rd off the layoff

Horse 7 rated well but is over 20/1 ML so i placeit in the money only