sitting with you
 

Hi Rich

I'm lost Back in the day you probably would see it in my face
and steer me back on course

Panic

I am confused, In this step I'm seeing the same thing I saw in the step 1
lookin at the first call only - Using only Turf and Poly lines
The 3 is setting the early pace -At least thats what my mind sees If I'm wrong in step 1 I will lose the race but I don't know if I am wrong
I don't want to drift down the wrong road
can you help me

thanks
Bill

OK listen do not panic.

I see by your first post you have the #3 marked early off his last race at a 21.7 right? That is your horse and first fraction pace right now that has to be "beat".

Here is what you do now step by step.

1) using that 21.7 as your guide go to the 1 horse. has he run against a 1st fraction of 21.7 or faster? If he has NOT throw the horse out immediately and move to the next horse and repeat the process ok?

If he has run against that pace matchup THOSE LINES against the 3 horse. If those lines are deep in the pp's look at his recent lines Bill. Is he still in form? Has he tailed off? Once you have made a decision to ACCEPT those deep lines now do this:

Who is faster? Who will be ahead of the other horse positionally? THAT horse is the one you keep and toss the other one ok?

2) The #3 is YOUR horse to beat based on your preliminary work Bill. Now you go horse by horse and try to find someone to knock his ass off ok? if you can't HE is your bet man.

Does this help you?

Hello Rich

Thank you Yes you made it very easy to follow
I will get back into step 2

Bill :)

Step 1

1. S
2. E (22.1)
3. E (21.7)
4. P
5. E (22.8)
6. E (22.5)
7. E (22.4)
8. P

Early


Step 2

2 over 1
3 over 2 (Stop right here; no horse matches this one...on the turf or poly.)
3 over 4
3 over 5
3 over 6
3 over 7
3 over 8

3 Wins

Minds eye #3
 

I'm late to the party.

1-NF
2-E 2-22.1
8-21.8
3-E 1-21.7
4-P
5-E 6-22.6
6-E 4-21.3 FASTER THAN 4 AND 7 IN TANDEM RACES
7-E
8-P

Race goes E

2 is faster than 1. 1 is out
3 is faster than 2. 2 is out
3 is faster than 4. 4 is out
3 is faster than 5. 5 is out
6 is faster than 3. 3 is out
6 is faster than 7. 7 is out
6 is faster than 8. 8 is out

Projected 1st call pace--22.9

#1 vs #2--The #1 has 3 races on polytrack, and only one of them at todays
projected pace, Line 6 at which he failed miserably from 4th
position finishing 6th ,18 lengths off. The #2 has two races at
polytrack and Line 7 wins at a 22.9. The#1 is OUT. The #2 in IN.

#2 vs #3--The #3 has two races at todays pace and comparable surface.
Line 10, he just misses on turf from 3rd position to finish 2nd by
head at todays pace. Line 1 of the #3, I would be suspicious of
that line, especially if it was an easy , uncontested lead, but he
wins from 1st position, fighting, at a 22.7 which is also his
powerline, and it is his last,recent line. The #2 wins from 1st position on a 22.9.
The #2 is OUT. The #3 is IN.

#3 vs #4--The #4 has two comparable lines at todays surface. Line 2, he
fails at turf. Line 5, horse wins from 3rd position on polytrack at a
22.9. The #3 wins from 1st position on turf at a 21.7.
The #4 is OUT. The #3 is IN.

#3 vs #5--The #5 has 6 races on polytrack. His best and powerline is Line 6,
winning from 1st position at todays projected pace of 22.6. The
#5 fought only twice in career: Line 10 , fighting from 1st position
at a 23.6 and Line 1 fighting at 3rd position at todays projected
pace. The #3 fights at a 21.7 from 1st position at a comparable
surface. The #5 is OUT. The #3 is IN.

#3 vs #6--The #6 in all the 6 lines at polytrack and turf, 4 out of 5 lines,
whether failing or doing well, he is positions 2nd and 3rd at 1st
call behind paces of 22.4-22.8. The last line he fought from 2nd
position. A 105.3 is about a 59.1 at 5 furlongs. The #3 fights
from 1st position at 21.7-44.7-56.9. The #6's 59.1 will be
assumed a slower 1st call comparable to the #3's 56.9 and #6 is
normally close to 22.4-22.8 without fighting at 1st call,any
position. The #6 is OUT. The #3 is IN.

#3 vs #7--The #7 has only one competitive race at todays comparable
surface, Line 8, at a 23. The #3 is winning at a 21.7. The #7 is
OUT. The #3 is IN.

#3 vs #8--The #8's only powerline is Line 8, winning from 2nd position at a
22.6, NOT on todays comparable surface. The #3 wins from 1st
position at a comparable surface at a 21.7. The #8 is OUT. The
#3 is IN.

The #3 wins the race and goes wire to wire.

VoodooFan

Next Step
 

1C pace =21.7

#1 vs #2...I throw out the 1 because he's never faced close to this pace. #2 at least won versus this pace line 8. It was on the dirt and today is poly, but I'll keep him for now.

#2 vs #3...Definitely #3. Showed he can fight at the 1c and go on to win vs today's pace. The "primer" also led my eye to see something in line 9 I missed initially. He faced a 21.9 on the turf and moved 7-6-4, including a gain of 3.5 lengths between 2c and stretch call.

#3 vs #4...#4 never faced today's pace...out

#3 vs #5...#5 never faced today's pace...out

#3 vs #6...The "primer" really helped me narrow this race quickly to the #3 and #6. #6 fought and won vs 21.5 on the dirt, after breaking 5th. Giving the edge to turf and poly races though, I prefer #3. However, I also see they both ran on the turf at AP:

#3 22.6 46.5 59.4 3-3-2-2
#6 22.4 46.5 59.1 2-2-1-1

Based on this, #6 projects ahead of #3. At this point, I can't confidently separate the two.

#7 faced today's pace on dirt but couldnt handle it...out

#8 never faced today's pace...out

I'm left with #3 and #6 as a 2-horse bet.

Step 1
- Quick, quick, analysis shows no one can match #3's first fraction from his last race on turf. Only times in that range are on dirt.

Step 2-
1 & 2 .....take 2
2 & 3 ......take 3
3 & 4 ......take 3
3 & 5 ......5 out
3 & 6 ......6 2nd win bet for those who bet 2
3 & 7 ......7 out
3 & 8 ......8 out

#3 strong last out on turf. Have to believe horse will continue.

Hello Richie....my pick for this race is the six horse my eyes (mind's) stop at
his 4th line 21.2 2hd.

Ignacio.

I tossed everyone but #3 , Im going to take the last race at face value. He's fast and in shape.