Hi Ted,

Funny you should use that race from Sat April 18 at Tampa as i had that horse. I used Bill's method. Using Validator and the adjust and not choosing a pace line from the last 3 where they were over 7.5 lengths behind. Also not using an out of the ordinary SR. Hit the p4 for a dollar for 500.00. I did put 54.00 into it but i was so far ahead for the day it was worth the investment.

Bob

Congratulations Bob! It was a gift from the racing gods! I didn't do a Pick 3, but the winner sure was low hanging fruit (for those with eyes to see :))

Ted

can anyone tell me on RDSS2 ....what is CSR ? it is right beside the VDC on the BLBL printout

oops never mind...just found it...Composite Speed Rating....

Thought I'd add the link here anyway: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...8&postcount=14 (from Beta2.5-11 Release Notes)

Here it is, again - Composite Speed Rating (CSR):

"The CSR was formerly only displayed on the NewPace screen, though technically not a part of NewPace. It is a weighting of the Adjusted Speed Ratings from the last 4 usable lines, regardless of distance, surface, race conditions or finish. It is not dependent on a single line, but rather a weighting of the last 4 usable lines.

The weighting is as follows: 100% of the last line SR + 62% of the average of the last 2 lines SR + 38% of the average of the last 3 lines SR + 24% of the average of the last 4 lines SR. Thus the last line SR has a major weighting in the CSR, with the weighting declining for older lines. Thus, if the horse ran well in the last line and faded in the stretch for whatever reason (wrong surface for the horse, wrong distance, inappropriate pace, trouble), since CSR uses ONLY final time Adjusted SR, that last line poor finish will hurt the horse's CSR. For any number of reasons, such a last line may be forgiven and the horse may indeed be a contender today, though the CSR may rank poorly. Then again, if the horse has run fairly in its recent history, the CSR will rank it fairly among others, for better or for worse.

From statistical work done by Dick Mathie (rmath) the Winner of a selected subset of races has a Top 4 CSR figure approximately 85% of the time (closer to 80% allowing for the occasional tied ranks), with the Winner ranking Top 2 approximately 60% of the time. Further, when combined with the VDC rank (which includes ties) the combined VDC - CSR rank pairs of 1-1, 1-2 and 2-1 account for approximately 60% of winners (again, from a specific subset of race types and field sizes).

The result is interesting enough to warrant inclusion in a ranking set for further analysis, in my view. The CSR rank is also included in the updated Excel Export Model template (see Point #2 on Excel Export)

Since Dick Mathie has done such a large amount of work on proving some of the initial statistical validity of this number, I will encourage him to discuss it further and explain what limits he used (e.g. race types, field sizes) in his studies. Also, to correct any mistakes I may have cited in the statistics above. The NewPace screen still shows the actual CSR number (to 2 decimal places) and now ranks it as well. The CSR rank alone (including colour coding) is now shown on the Entries Summary screen, on the BL/BL Analyis screen and in the Excel Export."

Ted

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Bless you for this! I was watching my first video and was stumped by some of the abbreviations. Before asking a question I thought should look first and bingo.

There are those that actually search before posting ;)

Terry

rdss glossary
 

Thanks Bill. This will be invaluable to new members, such as myself, who are trying to soak it all in.:)

Thanks Bill

Great refresher and update , Hope to see you at the get together at Del Mar.

Vanoy.