Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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-   -   Canadagoose une bonne nuit à Mountaineer (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6104)

mikesal57 09-19-2009 08:23 AM

Yes FTL...That was a nice one...

also with that $33 winner in the 6th..2 horse betting got me the 5th and 7th races winners($11 & $8.60) :D

Now its back to work and I wont be home in the evening till Tues :mad:

good luck guys and see you then

mike

barb craven 09-19-2009 10:12 AM

hide
Hello Barb
In reference to one of FTL'd
Do you actually hide/scratch the favorite
Or do you I guess the better word would be
Ignore the fav or low odds horse

Back in the day I had great success working
races in the same manner as you are
I was able to watch the tote
And ignore horses with odds that would
pay less than 5/2
I would not hide them that is take them out
Of the match up but I would ignore them
And bet two other horses in my top 3-4
Blbl.
Best method I could recommend is what your
doing ...
Wish I had the time again
Bill



Bill You're right. I don't actually hide the favorite at less than 5/2, I'll take it out to see if the next tiers stay the same or change, then put it back in and ignore it if tier 2 or 3 are good enough odds to warrant a bet and will do a 2 horse bet or a win place, or pass if odds aren't good enough. For me if there is a strong favorite, the odds have to be 7/1 or better to bet against the favorite. After all, there's more than a 50% chance the favorite will lose.

RichieP 11-28-2009 08:21 AM

Updated "Goose" / Has been betting real cash now
 
5 Attachment(s)
Barb has been hiding the favs when she has decided to play against for WIN. She has also been betting real cash which is great.
Her biggest win the last week or so was a 62 buck BOMB at Wdb where the winner was 5th tier but after HIDING the favorite who she definitely wanted to play against the winner jumped to tier THREE and at 30/1 was automatic bet for her.

Here are 2 race screen shots from yesterdays action along with her betting decisions that I got this morning.

I have attached the screen shot for Barb's 4th line $47.00 BOMB winner at Mnr. I would have liked to see her grab that big exacta too.
It is right there but no exacta bet was made.

Also attaching her notes/ comments to me. Trifectas Barb ha!

:)

mikesal57 11-28-2009 09:38 AM

Hi Guys..

These posts always makes me smile..

Just a short while ago , Barb knew nothing about horse racing...

and look at her now!!!

Rich ...another great project completed

Both of you should be proud...I love you both

Analysis:

Have you looked at when u hide the favorites that they are mostly lines 2-3 or maybe 4th down.....What happened in the last line...hmmm..has the horse gone off form and will it take some sort of time or a signal to show up for him to get back in form...is that line your using RED, can he duplicate it again..is it so far from his Green or Yellow lines that he wont ever do it again??
Epically doing lesser tracks, horses take more time to recover


has anyone did a analysis on this subject?


mike

barb craven 11-28-2009 09:49 AM

Hi Mike
The only thing I can say off the top of my head is that yes, the hide are often 3,4 or 5th down.

I've been watching these two tracks. They seem to run in cycles. Last week nothing came up in the top three or four, but the last three days, just put in the best of the last three lines from RDSS and they all show up in the top 5.


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