So # 3 can run in the slop. Good for him.

Attachment 18199

Race #5

Attachment 18200

A bit far off from post, but #4 and #6 present betting opportunities...

The price ain't nice
 

I can retire off this one.

Hi all.. thanks for doing this card tonight.. track looks beautiful LOL..

I have a few questions, some are dumb, so please bear with me..

1) Simply put, what are the 3 colors for on the horse #? Are they based on top 3 total pace? Energy?

2) What is the absolute final bet decision based on? If there is question, what is the final decision maker (putting odds aside for a moment)... i guess what is the final contender list?

3) Should you go beyond the last 3 racelines? If so, when?

Bombs away
 

Ted,

I think I would look to play the 2 here to win and place and backwheeled with the 4.6. and 7. The 7 looks to be the class of the field, but is possibly a bit vulnerable in the slop.

Ran out of time to post on the #5, but put my bet down on the #1 and #4. #1 scratched at the gate, so #1a ran for the entry.

Fave won.

Attachment 18201

BJ, good call! #2 definitely best bet. I also thought #7 might be vulnerable. To much 'thinking' LOL

Welcome Scott!

Quick answers for the moment:

1. For any factor, rank #1 gets RED, rank #2 GREEN, rank #3 GREEN.

2. BL/BL screen, check energy distribution on E/L Difference Graph

3. 64K Question! If intervening lines are non-representative, yes. If horse faced not as fast pace as he's shown can compete well against previously, use 2nd or 3rd rather than last. More to this...

Ted

Personal approach
 

Hi sql,

This should better be answered by Bill or Ted, but I do believe that the colors stand for Average Purse Value rank. Best of the last 3 at same distance or surface is standard Sartin practice, but I will go back a bit further if I don't find a comparable within those limits, and the timeframe is within reason - for me 90-100 days. Also, on turf races, many, myself included, use the Pizzola window - the best race in the full (visible) record. I am a value player, so for me, the odds are key. It would be better if others here answered that question. Best of luck.

Cheers,

B Jennet

Using ML
 

Thanks Ted. Since I didn't have time to check odds I didn't realize how much the horse was hammered, and probably wouldn't have bet at those odds. I've found this to be a real problem at smaller tracks and is one reason I don't play them. As far as the thought behind it - since the horse appeared to have an edge on EPR, it might be helpedt by the sloppy conditions to hit the board - we've all seen this many times. It really is a myth that play isn't as sharp at smaller tracks.