Morning Bill
If that's the case then man one would be leaving a LOT of money on the table as 2 of the 3 biggest prices opening 2 weeks (49.20 and last night 70 clams) are double red horses who are NOT the e1 or e2 horse and they certainly "figure" a bit at least when looking at the 2 E;s "above"them.

The horse labeled RR is the Dominant Early horse. By Dave specs, the Dominant Early horse is a horse that will take the lead, or will be close to the leader at the first call, when is 62% or greater from the second ranked early horse.
The Dominant Early can be dangerous, because he can easily wire the field if is able to take the lead at the first call.
I don't bet short fields, but I saw some value in this race, and that is Dave approach. VALUE!

On my screen shot #6 is the dominant Early with 69.73%, only wired the field 9 race back breaking his maiden. Last race was 1 length at the top of the stretch and couldn't win.
#2 will set the pace today with a Low of 67 and will negate the lead to #6.
#1 is the Swing horse, he's the second early horse with a high of 68.
My 2 early horses are 2-1
My 2 late horses are 4-3
My bet was 1-2-6 to win

The 4 was the favorite, no value, out he goes, #3 is too far back at the first call in his races, no chance today in the mud.

The new pace will give contenders most of the times, but is not enough.
There are lies, lies and statistics, you start to put your money down, and all of a sudden those statistics don't look so good anymore.

What I meant was of the E1, E2, L1 or L2 horses, only the E1 and E2 horses could be the RR horse. There are usually several other horses in the early mix who are not the E1 or E2 horse who can be the RR horse. The horse with the most position points is the RR horse but it does not always qualify as the E1 or E2 horse.

Early horses who are not E1 and E2 obviously win. One of the weak points of the method so far IMHO is that it discards the early horses that are not deemed good enough to be E1 or E2.

Sometimes the structure of the race, i.e., the mix of running styles, is such that there is only one legit late horse, who would be the L1. The program will automatically chose an L2 but it might not be the best of the rest. When this happens I look to evaluate strong early types that might be better than the apparently weak L2. I make my normal line selection for the horses in my trial and let BL separate them. So far making such changes occurs no more than 10% of the time, in my case usually less.

Sometimes there is a very strong early horse, the E1, and the E2 is very weak. In this case you might want to evaluate the best 3 Late horses to determine your top four.

So I guess what I am pointing at is that the best presser is not identified by the program. Now the definition of this presser might not be what we currently view as a "presser" in the Methodology. It would be a horse that fits between Dave's Early and Dave's late.

Bill

Hi Bill!
Ok and YES thank you for clarifying cause I do not have DS New Pace stuff.
Makes much more sense now my man! :)

Awesome

Isolating the RR
 

Hi Richie,

Nice hit. From what I'm seeing here, I'm guessing that much of the value of this program may come from this kind of horse - I'll call it 'pure RR' - a RR horse that is not also E1 or E2. It seems that when the RR horse is also E1 or E2, it gets hammered at the windows, but the crowd may lay off it when it's not. If you would be willing to break out the numbers on this subset of RR horses, including ROI, when you're posting again, I think we could really learn a great deal.

BTW, I don't know if you saw Bill's most recent stats, but the performance of the >62% threshhold was pretty anemic - the hit rate was .11, compared with .16 for the RR group as a whole, in the 513-race sample. Of the 85 RR winners, only .27 were >62%. This suggests to me that, it might be worth exploring whether this metric has any value, by analyzing the distribution of winners, and other ITM horses, according to % accum.. If the results are normally distributed, I'm guessing that the 'sweet spot' for winners will be closer to the mid-50s, and that of the place and show horses, closer to 50%.

Best of luck.

Cheers,

B.Jennet

Hi "B"
I just want to be clear;
I am NOT betting real money on these races ok? I dont want to come across as something I am not :). Very important to me I state this man :)

I AM working very hard when I do allocate time for racing however. My good friend Barb C. says it is time I jump back in the waters (so to say! lol)

I AM having fun and seeing some positive results. Let's see what shakes going forward!

Hope you are doing great
Richie

Hey Richie
 

As per your EVD1 example above I would have included the 6 in my wager (of only 4 horses, very rarely use 5). Here is how I interpret the New Pace contenders.

In EVD1, POR was 57 (because of monster) so the 6 is the pace. RDSS automatically choses the top two high reg speed sorts of the earlies, but my first inclination is to look at the %'s first. The 6 is 21% early and the next two are 16% and 14%. The 6 has a 5% advantage over the other two and is not eliminated by the POR (granted he should prob get killed by the big SR's).

So, my E1 is the 6, then use tiebreakers for the 16% and 14%. One of those could become a price only horse, which would ultimately elim. the monster due to low odds.

I've caught a couple of RR's from everyone's screenshots where RDSS didn't have it highlighted but his percentage early was much greater than the others.

Not sure if I explained my method clearly enough.

Chris

Cool. :-)
 

Cool. :-)

Morning Chris
I definitely follow your layout and it makes a bunch of sense, I really like it. :)

Week 3 totals
 

Week 3 results from EVD.

Once again the biggest scoring winner is a double red who is not one of the top 2 bolded E runners and exacta is there and HUGE.

A lot of races winner is NOT a contender (recurring theme at this track with its monster fields etc) on the screen.

4/20:
r1 - 5 cont = double red wins (not e1 or e2) = 70.40
r2 - 5 cont - out
r3 - 5 cont - win 5.00
r4 - 4 cont - win (also double red)- 10.60
r5 - 4 cont - out
r6 - 4 cont - win 7.20
r7 - 4 cont - out
r8 = 4 cont - out
r9 - 5 cont - win 6.20 + exacta 30.40
r10- 4 cont - win 15.00

4/21
r1- 4 cont - #1 e (also double red) wins 7.00 #2 l places exacta 66.00
r2- 5 cont - double red wins 15.00
r3- 4 cont - #1 l wins 10.80
r4- 5 cont - #1 l wins 9.20
r5- 4 cont - out
r6- 5 cont - #1 l wins 13.60
r7- 4 cont - out
r8- 4 cont - #2 l wins 10.40
r9- 5 cont - #1 e wins 7.40 double red places exacta 37.20
r10-5 cont - out

4/22:
r1 - 4 cont - out
r2 - 4 cont - #1 e (also double red) wins 7.80 #1 l places exacta 20.40
r3 - 5 cont - #1 e wins 7.00
r4 - 4 cont - out
r5 - 4 cont - #1 l wins 8.80 #2 l places exacta 57.60
r6 - 5 cont - double red wins 56.20 #1 e places exacta 598.40
r7 - 4 cont - #1 e (also double red) wins 5.00 #2 e places exacta 11.80
r8 - 5 cont - #1 l wins 5.00
r9 - 4 cont - out
r10- 5 cont - #1 l wins 6.00 #1 e places exacta 34.80
r11- 5 cont - out

4/23:
r1 - 5 cont - double red wins 4.80 #1 e places exacta 13.00
r2 - 4 cont - #1 e (also double red) wins 5.20
r3 - 4 cont - #2 e (also double red) wins 19.00
r4 - 4 cont - out
r5 - 4 cont - #1 e wins 8.40
r6 - 4 cont - #1 e wins 7.20 #1 l places exacta 22.60
r7 - 4 cont - out
r8 - 5 cont - out
r9 - 5 cont - #1 e wins 9.20 #2 e places exacta 41.80
r10- 4 cont - out
r11- 4 cont - #1 e (also double red) wins 18.00