Same Race Using TPR
 

I ran the same race using TPR (Phase 1) exactly as described in Pace Makes the Race. Using the Average Track Variant (17) as in the book and adjusting up or down. The ratings were:

Feel the Wind EPR 88 LPR 87 TPR 175
Little Happy EPR 75 LPR 88 TPR 163
Alpha Capo EPR 87 LPR 85 TPR 172
Cajole EPR 75 LPR 85 TPR 160
Count Orange EPR 81 LPR 86 TPR 167 Sprint projected to route
Count Orange EPR 81 LPR 86 TPR 167 Using the actual sprint line and subtracting 5 points from the EPR rating as the book said. They are both the same.

Anyhow Cajole won, Alpha placed, and Count showed. Feel the Wind did not fire. I am not saying TPR is not good, but was just demonstrating how the manual adjustment in Energy can work when true-contenders are entered.

Final Thoughts
 

Cajo's prior lines were on the Turf and at distances of 7.5, 8.5 furlongs and at different tracks. I used the last line which was the same distance and track as this race Oaklawn. The last similar line you could use was a Turf line 5 back which was the same distance but at Lone Star. If you use this line using TPR you get 82/95 for a TPR of 177. Highest in the field.

When I used both of these lines in Energy and manually adjusted to equalize Total Energy Cajo's last line was adjusted up and his turf line was adjusted down. They both came up 1 and 2 in the Late Exdc Match-Up Graphs.

Houndog,I was listening to an old sartin seminar tape and the Hat was talking about EXDC with Thoromation.He seemed to think that manual adjusting wasnt a good idea.Shoe

shoe, you are absolutely correct. In most cases the manual adjust or in THOROMATION's case the #2 adjust was not necessary. Jimmy would go ballistic when people would enter slow horses in the computer and the warning screen would come up when their was a difference of 1.75 in total energy. It would ask the user to be SURE the horse was a real contender. The #2 adjust in THOROMATION and the manual (E) adjust in ENERGY did the same thing. It equalized TOTAL ENERGY and it really moved slow horses up when doing this.

Naturally some people over-used this and than wondered why the program was wrong. It never occured to them that the problem was them. Probably if it was up to Jimmy he would not have included this feature. He never really needed it because he was a master of the Match-Up. He just wrote the program for the rest of us who didn't have a grasp of the Match-Up like he had.

Sometimes as I illustrated the manual adjust can work wonders. It can also work with horses shipping in from different tracks and distances. It can work in races such as the Kentucky Derby as well. As an alternative Jimmy at one seminar demonstrated the opposite screen approach as opposed to using the manual or #2 adjust. Hope this information helps.

shoe, just to let you know the manual (E) adjust in Energy had to be entered individually for each horse. In THOROMATION you just had to hit #2 and all the horses were adjusted at once. In Energy you can actually see the adjustment the horse gets when you put it in. In THOROMATION when you hit #2 the next screen shows all the horses with TOTAL ENERGY equalized.

THOROMATION made it too easy to use this procedure as it was just one button away.

Sartin and Bradshaw
 

The older I get, and reading and re-reading the Follow-Ups the wiser these two seem to me.

Shoeless:

To my way of thinking, the manual adjust was ONLY to be used when you had no other choice. First, the manual adjust (or #2) should NEVER be used until you are absolutely sure of your paceline selection. First, always look for an alternate paceline for a horse. See if it has better total energy without being the best line ever run by the horse in terms of total energy. Also be careful of horses with unusually high total energy.

Once you are certain then use the manual (or auto) adjust. It is mostly helpful for horses changing surfaces or shipping.

Gary