Okay Rich we'll have to watch that one. I checked Saturday but didn't see anything. I don't see them all. Depends on the 11 scratching.

Thanks

Pook

This could be a play Saturday

Bradshaw's teachings
 

Hello all!
I am confused as to where to find POWER LINES? On the few race demo's Ted worked,it seemed to be assigned a number in small size. When I asked where that was on the latest RDSS2,He said it ws redudant so he removed it I guess. If it is(the numbers) truly not on the program,wher do I find it now?
Thanks folks!
Papa John

What is a Power LIne?
 

First define it! A POWER LINE is the best finish against the fastest early pace a horse has run against. Depending on the race today, that would be an up close finish against the fastest early pace on dirt or Poly or turf route or sprint, whatever the distance and surface of today's race.


You either find the line using the Original screen which is what "The Hat" did or there are ways you can find them in RDSS using adjusted screens. It took me a couple of years to figure out how to do that so you are going to have to struggle through that yourself.


These lines which you qualify, either accept or reject if they are deep in a horse's pps. Once you are satisfied with the resulting POWER LINES, those are what you use to compare horses with, not the last line or the best of the last three or any of that nonsense.


As far as I know and I have been handicapping for over 50 years Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw is the only handicapper who won over 50% of his single horse bets. Richie P can attest to this and probably a lot more. So why would you try to reinvent the wheel. The Match Up gets you price horses, you don't have to settle for betting these short price horses. But you have to put the time in and study and practice.


Good Luck

Poweline
 

Hello Mark
( Hi Richie)
Is line 2 the power line for this horse?
It ran a + race against the fastest second call in its total PP's
on the same surface and distance ( turf route) as that day's race

Thanks
Bill

Attachment 44532

While Richie is the master, I will put in my 2 cents. The only time you would question a line like this, is if he lost position and/or beaten lengths, 1c -2c which would indicate he can't handle the pace.


The other concern I would have is what pace are you projecting to the 2nd call today. From this line, he appears to be a Sustained runner. If he is entered today against a much slower early pace, he may not have the same close. The front end of that paceline may have just collapsed and he just waltzed by late.

You are probably right.

I am doing an experiment to try and ease the workload involved in paceless races. Projecting a pace is difficult. Finding the right powerlines from which to handicap is difficult. Getting down to the right contenders is difficult. By difficult I mean compared to races with speed and a projectable pace.

I hadn't seriously considered these races until I noticed some interesting things happening in some of the races Richie had been posting. So I thought an approach could be worked out that could yield results that are good enough. It is based mainly on Bradshaws teachings with some other stuff mixed in.

None of these events should have E or EP runners in them. You try to determine the front runner, discard, and choose the runner best positioned after that. The principle is the same. What horses you use and what information you use from them is determined differently.

So far I am impressed at how predictable these are. Right from the gate many unfold as anticipated. And many are no big secrets as seen by the $5 mutuels. Back to the RP race on Sept 16 there have been four single wins in nine races. That is using a method that wasn't fully cemented for the first couple of events. Enough to be encouraged. I would be foolish to be putting actual money into these things yet. I will post at least eleven more for a total of 20 before I test privately over a longer period. We will see how things look after the 20.

For me this approach to a paceless race is faster with the heavy lifting done by RDSS and FTL. Powerlines and what that entails may work better.

Feel free to jump in with these races before post times with some detail on power lines, your projected paces etc. Maybe you have it down. So far I haven't seen any input from anybody as to how they approach this specific type of race. Some are getting winners but they appear to be doing these as any other races. Some just post numbers.

Pook

I think all of this work going on here is fantastic!
There aren't many of them but these types eluded me when I was working races in earnest Matching.

For ME the Matchup is very hard work mentally and for ME to make it work profitably I needed total focus and TIME - neither of which I have right now on any sort of consistent basis. I'm far from a master at this just was really good conveying Jim's thoughts and not adding any of my own stuff.

The horse Bill is asking about(Hey Bill!!!!!) line 2 is his power line. As far as if that race fell apart helping him here is a little something Hat offered up for us to deal with stuff like this:

Get your race down to final true contenders for WIN:
1) Use your power line pace of race fractions and positioning
2) Using Voodoo as Jim called it substitute positioning from other lines that put him "closer to the pace" keeping the power line fractions.
3) Now WHO is your horse(s)?

This is to be done ONLY with final contenders for WIN.

Pook you are doing awesome work man, Mark is terrific and has sent me by email big winners and place price horses before they ran using one horse also. Raceman, Bill, Tim, Bill L, lostandwon and everyone who takes the time to post here are really appreciated by me.

Analysis and thoughts are always greatly appreciated, believe me I understand what its like to post all your analysis and the horse doesn't lift its legs, I did it with Jim on the phone OFTEN! :D

Here is todays 11th from Belmont, full pps, tandems etc
:)

all are welcome to jump in!

cont

final group

Unfortunately the #11 didn't scratch and along with #3 there is too much potential speed.

Pook

Here is a race scheduled on Sunday with one horse taking a lead in a route three back with this being a sprint. At little Belterra Park outside of Cincinnati it is Race 3.

Oct 8 BTP R#3

papajohn3 times;


If your not seeing moves within your lines go to your configure screen and put a check mark in the box that says show moves. Hope it saves you a couple years.


FWIW I pay absolutely no attention to the moves nor do I use them to select a line to represent the horse. However to each their own if it works for them. Those moves are all figured in the Preceptor rating for each line. Presto magic!
Mitch44

Oct 8 BTP R#3

A lot of horses that no longer seem to be horses. Looks like this will be on a sloppy track. Ended with one contender to be on the lead and nobody for the following positions. Could go with #2 to wire but that goes against the principles of this approach to the paceless. #2 will probably be odds on. No bet.

Pass

Pook

Oct 8 BTP R#3

Since I have time and since this is a relatively easy race to pick powerlines because there aren't many, I have done it using powerlines.

There are six horses you can't make a case for still being horses. Leaves three contenders.

Oct 8 BTP R#3

With their power lines

Oct 8 BTP R#3

Appropriately #6 shows in front. The only one to ever show being in front in any race. But it was a route.

This puts you on the #5

Using powerlines #5 looks to be the play.

#5 (Not part of the experiment)

Pook

Oct 8 BTP R#3 Chart

#2 takes lead as anticipated but with no other contenders that was it. Kind of worked with power lines. Had #6 taking the lead but it got cover from #2 instead and blew on by.

Pook

Two races on Monday Oct 9

Oct 9 TDN 4 3:10PM

And

Oct 9 WO 1 (One old turf route first fraction 1st) 1PM

Oct 9 WO 1

Oct 9 WO 1

7

Pook

Oct 9 TDN 4

Oct 9 TDN 4

7

Pook

3 mins to post contenders 5-1-4-7-2.
1min to post will go with 5-4 and a 2 ex box 1457 and a 1 ex 1457/2
Tim

WO 1

Nobody seemed to want the lead at any point including #7 even at the end.

TDN 4

In the mix but didn't quite work out. A couple of difficult races as these usually are. Looks like Lieutenant Tim did nab the exactor. Congrats Tim.

Pook

Nothing on tap for Tuesday.

Pook

Thanks Mike. Close but no cigar on the win end had to settle on place payoff on the 5. Just couldn't play the entry at those odds.
Tim

Actually one race does qualify today.

Oct 10 MNR 7. Goes at 9:12.
There is one ancient first call 1st for #4.

Pook: My take on these pace less races,


At a seminar I remember ' The Hat" discussing races where there were no early horses, I take this to mean pace less races or a race with all S type horses. Most likely in Turf races but nor necessarily. He said when they are all Sustained the fastest of them will take the lead and force the others not to run their 3rd fraction , the same as a normal race.


FWIW this is something I've never paid attention too. When proper pace lines and contenders are picked the program in RDSS takes care of all this and its factored in to all the readouts and factors.


I admire your work pook and hope it gives you some kind of edge. Its only through records, research etc. that one gets closer to their goal. A 0 % trainer is just as important as a 25% trainer if you can discount that horse of the 0% trainer.
Mitch44

Oct 10 MNR 7

Where I am at with this race is #8 on lead. #2 and #6 are best positioned if the #8 fades. #2 will likely be odds on with a 1.6 ML. #6 is the play.

6

Pook

Hi Mitch,

I had never heard that. This approach is based on the other theory attributed to him about uncomfortable leads and who is best positioned. Not any math involved except in choosing the contenders and lead horse. Then it is positional. You are right it is built in, if you use perceptors and other related RDSS stuff.

Thanks for the kind words. This is just an experiment I could have done on my own but thought it might be interesting to others. Congrats on the frequent monkey work with exotics in other threads. You are one of the best handicappers on this site. I don't play exotics but I can see why you and many others do.

Pook

My contenders are 25684. I min 2 is 1/5 so lets try 5 & 6 & 8 $2 wps.
Tim

Man somebody hammered the 5 to 9/5. 2 wins in a cakewalk as 3/2 fav.
Tim

Oct 10 MNR 7 Result

#2 takes the lead and wires. Could have been on #2. Positionally the same as #6. One horse is 3/2. The other is 60/1. I chose 60/1.

Pook

I found no candidates for Wed Oct 11.

Pook