You guys lost me on this one. CT is a bullring. I don't understand how you can compare pha and crc to ct time wise without making adjustments.

Plus the 4 doesn't have a sprint race anywhere in it's PPs.

Do you just accept the times and that's it?

I wouldn't have had this one, and I'm still scratching my head. Normally I'm better with OTE races than E races.

The 4 has two sprint lines showing on the screenshot Steve. THE question that has to be answered is this: Is the race going to run early(the 4) or other than early.

Emilio,"Mu",Voodoofan,
Can you help Steve with the rest of his question since you all won the race.

Richie

Let's start there. Is the 4 the only speed?

If yes, why can't he wire it?

Startin right off the bat--yes the #4 in the lone speed IMO.

Rich I will take a crack at it.

Forgetting about bull rings, adjustments, etc and just going by the given contenders and power lines chosen:
*the #4 horse in its line 4 showed the best speed to both the first call and the half mile in a sprint and IMO would be the lone early for this race. [Actual race proved that.]
*the #2 horse in both power lines shown demonstrated that it can over take the best of what the #4 horse had shown in its power lines. It did so both in a sprint and I guess more importantly in a route. In the route the #2 showed two power moves one into the half mile of the race and the other into the top of the stretch. Both PM’s were done against faster times then what #4 has shown in its chosen power lines and especially significant (IMO) since it was a route. Now in the sprint again #2 showed two PM’s with one in the top of the stretch and the other in the stretch itself, both times either picking up position and lengths on the leader or as to the stretch drive improving position. All against a much faster half mile of the race then anything the #4 horse has shown.
* Because of the Match Up analysis of the #2 horse versus the assumed lone speed of the race #4--generally as predicted-- the #2 horse started to move on the #4 horse after the half and was able to pass him going into the stretch because it was truly a faster horse. [Actual race proved this late move capability to be a well grounded assumption.]
*I believe adjustments/Voodoo could have been done to at least one of #2’s power lines to show that it would be faster to the half mile then the #4 but I did not do this since it was pretty obvious the #2 horse was faster.

I certainly am no expert in the Match Up Methodology but strictly adhering to “The Hat’s” concepts without interjecting outside noises (type of track, variant, track to track adjustments, etc.) one can seize such a nicely valued winner.

I hope I explained my thoughts on this particular race satisfactory--thanks,
[I wish my handicapping using the MU Methodology could be so clear going forward as this one is when now looking back.]

Robert

Richie,

I appreciate all that you're doing, but I'm confused by a very specific thing here. Let's see if we can get to the bottom of it.

OK, I dug out the racing form for this race and looked at it all in context.

I can see why you like the two, and I can also make a case for him. In fact, after reading the posts and looking at the screen shots, and reading others analysis I like him a lot.

His last two races he didn't get on top of HIS fractions, but an excuse can be made because those were 1 1/8 mile races. OK.

But I'm still confused about something.

My biggest problem lies with the four. He is the only speed. Isn't that something we look for? Lone earlies. Only speed. I graple with these kinds of horses. The first question you must ask yourself is can the four wire this race? Well, he has in the past. Four races back he did. It looks like in his last race he got bothered. Is he a all of a sudden a quitter now? The two got the lead one time in his PPs and that was in a route race. So you wouldn't think the two would bother him on the front end--he has to press to win the race.

So are you saying because the two is a faster presser that will negate the four's early speed? Is it because the two will be right on top of the four making him run even faster and therefore causing the four to quit? I can understand that. Does that also mean that if the two wasn't in the race that the four would win?

But horses who look like this four do win races--they do run wire-to-wire. Four races back he wired a 7 furlong race at CT where he was 1st by a head at the first fraction--a fighter.

If I don't think the four can wire the race, then I can definitely see that the two is the next best horse--making him the best horse. But in all honesty I can also see where I might have overlooked him--because of his last three races. (It's a little easier when you are looking at the proper pace lines of all the contenders together. It becomes a bit more problematic when you have to look at everybody's PPs in context.)

It's horses like the four that give me my biggest headache using the MatchUp. When will they wire the race and when will they quit--or just flat out get beat.

Do you see my problem?

Thanks

As to post #80

Quote{Today in the BcrosbyH I have used strictly my thinking on the MU to select the #2 and #4 but mostly the #4 as my preference to win the race. This is strictly on what you have thought us during the past week and my thinking on it. I have not downloaded any Trackmaster data today so this is all MU thinking. So win or lose I intend to do an exacta box on 234 and no more since today is family day.}end of quote


Rich:

I really blew the BC Handicap this past Sunday. I was just using MU analysis and I believe I had the race correctly pegged as to being an OTE. There was so much speed in the race and to me the winner was going to be someone who can come off the pace with a strong 3rd fraction. I had made two big mistakes in this race with the first being I straddled the fence by keeping #2 as one of my win bets and the second big mistakes is that I allowed the MLO odds of #4 to cloud my fair analysis of both the #3 and especially the #6 horses. I know about could have and should have and I will not go into this here but lesson learned is that from now on I take a stand--Early/Late and hide the MLO’s.

Robert

Steve,
what if the #4 will wire? Why not box both horses, 2-4, if you have a strong opinion about the #4. You couldn't decide wich one to select as a winner, and you did miss a great opportunity to cash on an ex.
lbj

Hi Steve. Do be honest with you I do the ALPHA MEDITATION the one that they mention in one of the followups and when I do it I am very relax and I start reading the form on my computer and in that race from CT I noticed that the #2 was almost 2 sec faster going around 2 turns in a route. And I hcp this race to be both E/ OTE. Because the #2 can take the lead at the 2nd call he did it before and won. I think the Hat calls this Hidden Early. So, I figured that this horse could have won either way. (after I do this meditation I do not recall reasons why I pick certain horses to win.)

There was another OTE that won the 9th at Del. This one paid over $20. This was a much easier race to hcp.

In the other race that I bet that ran OTE I lost it. It was the contest race and I lost it by a NOS.

I'd love to see Jim's workup of this race. I just dug out the form and took a look at it.

No horse has raced at Saratoga, and you've got shippers coming in from CD, DEL, AQU, BEL, and CRC.

(I would have gone with the one also. My second choice would have been the two--a reverse of the tandem, and the best closer. Damn. I just looked it up. The two wins, but I don't think I would have bet him.)

I think, Turbulator, you need to focus on this quote. You asked the right questions, is it Early or Other Than Early? and Look for the horse who "Needs-to-Lead". Can he go wire to wire TODAY???? ANSWER:NO. WHY?.... 1)He WAS a Fighter , not anymore cause...
2)He had an UNPRESSURED, EASY LEAD at much slower fractions, and FAILED MISERABLY, NO EXCUSE. 3)The Power Line concept says, he has become a slow horse 'cause he cannot get on top of fractions he previously could. 4) I forget sometimes, too, but Mr. Bradshaw, to paraphrase said, "....Lone Early DON'T always win. A Lone Early that can maintain it 'till the end of the race wins." 5) With just (2) races, one being his Power Line, HE'S getting worse, slower, can't fight off ANY pressure,backs up with and EASY lead at much, much slower call and going backwards in form. 6) To continue the paraphrase of Mr. Bradshaw, "....that's an On-the-Lead SLOW horse. A presser will get behind him an press him all the way to the barn. He'd wish he had his oats right now, 'cause he won't be able to eat'em later. He's gonna go into oxygen debt." 7) To paraphrase again, "....if a horse goes around a TURN FASTER than a horse going straight, who has the best speed?" 8) Only a few tracks has, according to Mr. Bradshaw, has distance peculiarities. Read the chapter titled "The MatchUp Guys" to quiet your mind about track to track and adjustments. As Mr. Bradshaw says, "A horse is a horse." 9) To paraphrase the Master again, ".......that horse had better be running in MUD UP TO HIS NECK before you talk about adjusting him and putting him in your computer....Thats a SLOW horse!! Slow horses beat slow horses,....fast horse's WIN races."........"yeah, adjust him,.....adjust him OUT of the race!" 10) Tom Brohammer once said, "compare apples with apples." Any track, don't matter. A (1) turn mile going against a (2) turn mile. Either use another line, or did the the (2) turn miler run as fast as the (1) turn miler? If Micheal Jordan played a college basketball player, on any gym at any country, Jordan would demolish the dude, no adjustments are necessary. Only if the dude,say, can dribble on a 'muddy" gym floor or 2 feet under water, he may have a chance against the skywalker. 11) Once you have determined he is a slow horse, Lone Early or not, throw him out like Richie does, then look at your contenders who's left. 12) We all experience in some manner, what you experience...too much information and/or conflicting information to focus on the race. 13) Rich says, "Quiet your mind". Also, not only dont look back on lost race's, but dont look back at what "used" to happen when you "did" or "did'nt" bet "this kind of horse" or "this kind of race" or "these shippers", etc,. VoodooFan

Power Move
 

• Richie, you clearly defined Power Line, the above quote is a good one. When you get the chance, can you define "Power Move". From your examples, I'm thinking a "Power Move" is a line a where a horse finished competitively AND the move or biggest move that gets him CLOSEST to the lead at any call , with Pace of Race within the reason of competitiveness of TODAYS projected pace.
• And horse's with MULTIPLE Power Moves, which one to choose, Thanks Richie.

VoodooFan

Power Move
 

A Power Move is a QUICK gain of POSITIONS between calls

Power move here is 2c-sc with a move of 6-2

Power Move
 

here the move is 2c-sc
move of 4-2

Power Move
 

Here the move is 1c-2c
5-2

Power Move
 

Here the move is 2c-sc
4-1

Power Move
 

Here the move is 1c-2c
8-3

Good Examples
 

Very nice examples, Richie, Thank You. From that last example, I can see the horse doesn't necessarily have to FINISH competitively,"IF" that's ALL the horse has available, I suppose. Clear illustrations. VoodooFan

Great examples on the Power Moves provided Richie. As with anything else in handicapping an assumed better PM is not the end all in win selection. Look at what happened in the Haskell this last Sunday Curlin IMO had a better PM in 2nd race back then Any Given Saturday did in its last race but lost to AGS. Curlin had a more powerful PM against faster time in that 2nd race back (The Preakness) and furthermore in its 6th race back it showed that it could definitely handle the projected pace which was for the most part 1.10. So no matter what no one factor ever stands alone and other considerations still come into play in this very challenging game that we play.

Thanks,

Robert

First of all I apologize for the late posting. I finally got some quiet time yesterday to work my way through the analysis and I was confused on a couple of points.

1. With respect to the elimination of the 3 and the 8 for being slow. No problem with the 8. However, the match up pace was from the #1 horse and was: (in tenths) 47.5-110.9-136.3-149.4

The power line from the #3 was 47.3-111.2-136.2-149.1. see attachment. Only the 2c is slower than the match up pace, all other fractions are the same. I recognize that #3 is either SP or S, but does the 2c time alone determine this horse's ability to compete in this race? #3 gained both position and lengths at the 3 calls prior to finish. I need help here. this appears to be a very finely distinguished analysis of slow vs. fast, one that I cannot logically make at this time. Jim or Richie, can you shed a little more light on the analytical progress thats going on here or perhaps more precisely where the #3 effectively loses contact with the other contenders?

2. 2nd point of confusion. In discussing the relationship between 1 turn miles and 2 turn route times I understand the logic because 1 turns are usually faster. However, the comparison was stated as being made to each horse's Power Line and the Power Line from the #5 is from a 2c of 109.4, but it appears that Jim's analysis is now using paceline 1 with a 2c of 110.4. did we switch powerlines in the description of the analysis somewhere?

Thanks for the clarifications

The Three horse is slower at the second call and will be behind the pace of today’s race, and behind the winner today. Competitive yes, able to win, no. I am looking for winners not competitors.

Yes I changed running line to evaluate Ice Cool Kitty but I did look at the "power Line." As stated I have a hard time using the one turn mile time. Regardless, I did not like the horses chance in the race, especially if the last race is more at today’s pace. He will be behind the winner ever call regardless of the running line used.

Power Move + Fastest Pace + 3 Matching Earlies
 

Here is a race from today where the Power Move is the icing on the cake. Woodbine Race 7

Spot Play - 3 matching earlies

Winner # 1 is Fastest pace of race and Power Moves QUICKLY. Has 3 lengths 1c and 4-6 lengths 2c to work with over the earlies. Fugghedaboutit.

Winner pays $5.60 so no big bragging rights. Just a super solid SPOT PLAY that had EVERYTHING.

Here is the Woodbine PDF in case you want to view the whole races pp's. The card is finished

Richie

Hi Richie. I did have #1 as the winner but how do you figure that he is the pace of the race. I thought that you had to look at the LAST LINE to get the horse that ran in the fastest pace.

I thought #5 had the fastest pace of the last race. 22.1 45.1 111.2

#1 was in a brazing race in his 2nd line and also had a good power line. Thats the reason why I playled it.

emilio

In the old days of the Methodology there was a teacher who also was a teacher of Silva Mind Control. I took a modified version of the course while at a Sartin Seminar at Saratoga. I can highly recommend a Silva Mind Control course to everyone. You will not believe the state of relaxation you can achieve. Cheers

Emilio,
I meant the winner was the fastest pace of race among the contenders. I liked him for all the reasons you posted!

3 matching earlies - deja voux all over again
 

Wannna know WHY my "3 matching earlies" is my favorite spot play? see the Woodbine race where the winning 1 horse paid $5.60?

well look at this screenshot from Charlestown last night. WHO would you prefer in THIS matchup? After tossing the 3 earlies I thought the 9 horse looked pretty darn good.

Reminds me of the 1 horse at Woodbine a bit. Well this time when the 9 wins they pay at 17/1.

"Deja voux all over again" - Yogi

screenshot

3 matching earlies - deja voux all over again
 

the result chart.

The nine lost lengths and position. Are you saying he was the best of the rest?

Here is the screenshot after removing the earlies.

The 9 GAINED a position from 1c-2c with the 2c time being a full SECOND faster pace of race than anyone else. A full SECOND faster Steve.

The crowd jumped on the 3 - a 48/116 horse while the 9 is 48/113 horse. Amazing. 3 SECONDS difference at the 2c and the 9 GAINS a position into the 113.

Hi Richie. I was getting confused with the 9 horse because you say that it has a 1 sec faster than all the others at the 2nd call. And I can not see that. Do you mean in the stretch call. I see 1 sec faster there.

emilio

You know something? I'm an idiot. Since I started doing this in earnest, I've been using the SECOND FRACTION in route races as the second call. So when you said the 9 is 1 full second faster at the SECOND CALL I looked at the SECOND FRACTION of 48.1 and said to myself, "what the hell is he talking about?" At that point I got up and took a walk.

Then after about 15 minutes it dawned on me.

I have NEVER looked at the SECOND CALL in a route race (the third fraction)--ever. I've always looked at the first and second fractions just like I do in a sprint.

I mean is that dumb or what. Wow. I can't believe I did that. Now I've got to rethink some things.

Think The Match Up Doesn't Work In Small Field?
 

I continue to mainly lurk and study, but this was one from yesterday. Explain to me how the winner pays $30?! I could make a "non matchup" case for the horse but I'm really trying to wipe all that stuff from my mind.

Why did the horse have long odds? Eurton is a real solid claiming/allowance trainer but typically doesn't run much on the turf, although these are his main owners. Quinonez is not one of the better known jocks. The last few speed ratings aren't tops in the field. The other trainers in the race are well known and have higher win percentages on the turf.

Check out the race 2 back - a nice race at this track and distance. Now match up power lines - 6 back it ran very competitively against the FASTEST pace of race of any horse in the field - 22 44.4 109, with a nice power move between the 2nd call and stretch, at a mile at this track.

Even though Whilly looks a bit off form, I didn't think Warrior Song would be able to do what he did 2 back at this track & distance.

I'll attach the TSN pp's and Equibase free results charts.

Still learning...............

Here is The Results Chart
 

Dmr 08-16-07 R7

Lou,
THAT was a great call and score!

Your Power Line is just that. Powerful.
22-44.4-109
5-5-1 Positional BLAST to the sc

Very nice. VERY nice Lou :)

Jim:

Thanks for the clarification. I will re-study the race with your comments in mind. Really enjoy your posts.

Bill

Yes, I remember and wholeheartedly agree. The reverend Bert Mayne, I believe. He also gave the course in Glendale, CA over two weekends in late 80's I think. It was very interesting. I still employ some of the concepts that he made available to us.

Saratoga Race Six

This race gave most of you trouble, so after I get my two horse I am going to analyze the race a little different to teach the way to make the final decision.

The Seven Eleven and Thirteen scratched. There are tandems that will help in the elimination of horses. The Two, ran in tandems and is slow, out. The One Three and Six are slow, out. The Eight was beaten by the Four, out. The Nine and Ten are from the same tandem and are slow, out. The Three and Twelve are Early, but are slower than the Four, out. This leaves the Four and Five as the main contenders. Now, how is the race going to run, Early, "or other than early?"

There are three horse that can run early in the race, the Tree, Four and Twelve. The three early horses are slower than the four, but will they have any effect on the Four? The Four needs at least a five length lead, on the turf, in order to go wire-to-wire. The Three and the Twelve can not win the race, but can prevent the Four for getting the lead he needs to win. Look at the third running line on the Four. Looking at the third running lines show what happens if the four horse does not get a comfortable lead. He can be caught.

The horse most likely to catch him is the Five. Look at positions and beaten lengths .The Five will be coming like a jet. This race will run "other than early" and the Five will win the race.

• Is that a MIS-Print? Are you also evaluating a horse's comfort lead at every call, including the stretch?

Because only in the stretch, in that 3rd line does he have a 6 length lead before winning. VoodooFan

There is confusion for a good reason Voodoo. Jim works from the Racing Form which shows the 4 horse from line 2 with a 5 length lead at the first FRACTION.

Ok the screenshot I put up with Rdss does NOT show the first fraction positions/beaten lengths. It starts at the first CALL. So we can NOT see what he saw there ok?

THIS is the reason for the mixup and is my bad. So this is how we will avoid mixups in the future.

When Jim is teaching/posting about a certain race or races I will post the regular PDF past performances showing exactly the same thing he sees when reading his Racing Form.

Once again I am sorry for the mixup.

Richie

Richie, you don't have to post this, but you might want to move these last few posts over to the thread that they are referring to.

I kept scrolling back looking for the races he was talking about, but then I remembered they were in the Saratoga thread.