lets do better....:(


here the numbers so far for the winners at odds 4-1 or better for NP contenders

E1 = 70 at odds 4 or better. Bet $140.00, won 7 for $90.80....loss of $49.20

E2 = 109 at odds 4 or better. Bet $218.00, won 9 for $148.70....loss of $69.30

L1 = 81 at odds 4 or better. Bet $162.00, won 7 for $102.80...loss of $59.20

L2 = 113 at odds 4 or better. Bet $226.00, won 10 for $253.60...profits of $27.60

T = 30 at odds 4 or better. Bet $60.00. won 2 for $56.60....loss of $3.60

made 403 bets at $2.00 for a total of $806.00, 35 bets won for a total of $ 652.50 for a loss of $ 153.50

Actual loss is even worse
 

Hi Mike,

Sorry I haven't posted much here, but I've been somewhat tied up lately. I don't know if you saw my post on the analysis of NP higher-odds winners from Bill Lyster's 507-race survey, but it might have made the ROI-loss here less of a surprise. And your actual loss here would have been worse than 19%, because, if you're using only odds as a filter, you have to use all of the NP contenders above your chose level (here, 4-1). So you have to assume that you weren't only using the winner, which is what you do here, but that you were using at least one and possibly two more horses in every race. Much bigger loss. This is due to NP's lack of rank-ordering, as I've said before, a huge weakness of this method.

As I said in my post on Bill Lyster's suvey, NP's hit rate deteriorates sharply as the odds rise. The average win probability for all four NP contenders combined, even at the level of 7-1 and above was 8% (2% for each contender) rather than it's average of 74%. That's pretty close to what you got here. If you are interested in using an odds-filter, I suggested starting with 12-1 or 15-1, at the lowest.

As Jeff Platt has said, the more filters any factor or method requires to produce a profit (and most produce no profit to begin with) the less robust it is. Based on what we've seen, I think we should assume that NP is a relatively weak method (in terms of ROI), that can only produce a profit in very limited cirumstances. The MNR angle is a good example of that.

I am leaning toward a belief that exactas are more the way to go with NP, due to the compounding effect of the odds, and the fact that the crowd seems to have more difficulty assessing correct exacta probabilities compared to win.

Again, thanks for your continuing work.

Cheers,

B Jennet

Tampa 1/22

race 1-5

some good hits last 2 days

Races 6-10

update...

overall a plus on exactas ...last 3 days starting kicking

Tampa 1/25

Races 1-5

Races 6-10

Looks promising
 

Hi Mike,

As you say, exactas look like a good direction to go in. Also, although NP hits at slightly above average here, the public is underbetting NP favorites. Useful information.

Thanks again.

Cheers,

B Jennet

Tampa 1/26

Race 1-5

thxs BJ...last 4 days over $1000

Races 6-10

Tampa 1/28

Races 1-5

Races 6-10

Race 11

Tampa 1/29

Races 1-5

Races 6-10

Tampa 2/2

Races 1-5

before late scratches

Races 6-10

Tampa 2/1 LATE

some nice prices

Races1-5

Races 6-9

Mike,
59 races for 2 and 3 years old lost $284.60. Pass these races and win $389.20.
NP Ex.

Mike,
Fillies & Mares did run 80 races for a loss of $38.60. Pass these race and win $389.20 + $38.60= $427.80
Total races played 94 out of 233
Not much of a profit but beats losing.
What would happen querying the races by classes. Less plays more money?

Tampa 2/3

Races 1-5

before late scratches, sorry

Races 6-10

Tampa 2/4

Races 1-5

races 6-10

Races 11-12

Tampa 2/5

Races 1-5

Races 6-10

Tampa 2/8

Races 1-5

Races 6-10

Tampa 2/9

Races 1-5

Races 6-9

Based on his post at PA, looks like Dave has deifintely changed the NP parameters - no swing horse for one, a bit different speed sort, a bit different look at the number of early and late horses, etc.

Things evolve and improve. Or they degenerate.

So how does this affect us here on RDSS NP, or does it? If it is major tweaking, which I am sure was needed to be done, then is this to incorporated into the NP here ?

As a few here do, we use it more of a quick glance to see where a horse's range of speed is, and see if he fits into being a contender based on past performances, mainly his speed figures for the last 10 races, and not the last few races that are like today's race, meaning today's surface and distance, it just groups them all together, is it possible to seperate them and then average them out to fit todays race, giving a better picture, just a thought.

I konw we could do this by ourselves, just wondering if NP could do it, and limit turf/route to only using past turf/route races, yada yada yada, as to me it would give a better picture of the horse for todays race, especially if it was a turf route, or any other type of race, dirt/sprint , AW/route and basically keeping sprint and routes seperate would better tune the ability of the horse for todays race.

Patrick

Run the race posted on PA using the old NP method, the results were similar, but don't count on it. One of the differences is quoted by Dave:

"That leaves us with 6-7-1-5 but the race is not playable from my standpoint."

Why is not playable, cuz #6 has 44.1% of the pool bet on him, giving a 51.2% probs of winning.

Maybe Dave or Ted can explain better than I did.

If there is no value then forget about it. Today 2 standouts Aracnaphobia at Tampa and Rosehill Dew at Santa Anita, forget about them $4.20 and $5.00 not for my money and my numbers pointed to them in seconds, not dwelling on them if they were right or wrong. Pace is pace you can stretch and twist them anyway you want but put a new label to them as New Pace, forget about it. Spend the time handicapping raw and see where you go, but clutter your mind with this overflow IMO of unproven work and see where you end up.

too bad you couldn't bet Aracnaphobia at Tampa. RDSS New Pace had the Ex,Tri and Super.
Btw #7 was a contenders as well due to his Price Only. Price Only means the horse gets in by virtue of the race odds+1.

If Dave is making money with his iteration of New Pace (which he claims to be and I have no reason to disbelieve) he is not going to hand it over publicly and lose his edge. That you can bet on. If he moves on to something else, only then do I suspect it could be released to the public. By then, it will have lost its edge and you would need to add your own "secret sauce" to perhaps make it profitable.

Jim

Ok...

Now that Dave has teased us on "improvements"

Whats next?

and how much?

just hope there's stats to back it up

mike