Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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RichieP 09-21-2007 10:05 AM

Example race #2
 
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horse's 2 and 3

RichieP 09-21-2007 10:06 AM

Example race #2
 
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horse's 4 and 5

RichieP 09-21-2007 10:08 AM

Example race #2
 
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horse's 6 and 7

RichieP 09-21-2007 10:09 AM

Example race #2
 
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to complete the field horse's 8 and 9

RichieP 09-21-2007 10:21 AM

Example race #2
 
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Step 1 - Projecting pace with POSITIONAL early running style horses

this race is easy as we have 2 horses running early. The 2 and 6

screen shot of each horses pp's and then our screen of them together.

Would you agree that we will NOT accept ANY horse/line over
1c - 22.0
2c - 46.0

there is our Proj pace.

RichieP 09-21-2007 11:37 AM

Example race #2
 
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Step 2 - contender/line selection

Proj pace: 22.0 46.0

Horse 1 - out - destroyed by the 7 in last race tandem against todays Proj pace
Horse 1a - out - last 2 races against todays Proj pace (lines 1 and 4)horrible
Horse 2 - IN - one of our pacesetters
Horse 3 - out - destroyed by 6 in last race tandem.
Horse 4 - out - same reason as the 3 horse.

RichieP 09-21-2007 11:43 AM

Example race #2
 
5 Attachment(s)
Step 2 con't
Horse 5 - out - 2nd call last race is THREE fifths too slow compared to todays Proj pace.
Horse 6 - IN - one of the 2 proj pacesetters
Horse 7 - IN - ran 3rd closing against FASTER pace than today's Proj pace.
Horse 8 - out - too slow when comparing 1c and 2c to todays Proj pace.
Horse 9 - out - hammered by the 7 in last race tandem.

RichieP 09-21-2007 11:53 AM

Example race #2
 
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Step 3 - Who is FAST against TODAY'S projected pace.

Leaving both lines in for the 2 horse

Top Total Energy = 7
Top True Speed = 7
Top Total Pace Potential = 7
Top Tpr (Cpr) = 2

RichieP 09-21-2007 12:00 PM

Example race #2
 
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Step 4 - Go to the window to CASH.

Result chart.

Wanna know WHY I feel this is the real deal man? Look where the 2 horses mentioned in last post finish.

1st and 3rd. That is the sign of good matching using Hat's methods.

That finishes up my work here with this method.

I hope it at least gave you some food for thought regardless of your feelings for it as something practical for you to implement.

Best of luck and good matching.
Richie
" Slow ass horses should not be put into software. They just screw up the readouts" - Jim Bradshaw

sdahl 09-21-2007 12:39 PM

Good example and explanation Rich. How far back would you go in lines looking for an early horse. It seems sometimes that certain horses change styles. Also, on this example you were using adjusted times. Is that because some of the races were from other distances.

Stan


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