Very good thread. Can I ask what are you using as far as days to consider a line a "layoff"?

Using TPR #s
 

Hi All,

I have really been enjoying this thread as well as others here at Pace and Cap'. I like the no BS Zone mentality as well as the sharing of knowledge.

One thing I have not seen discussed in this thread is the use of a Track Profile in conjunction with TPR numbers. That is one of the big principles of effectively using these numbers. I am lucky that I finally decided to shell out for Synergism 6. It keeps all of this info for me. It makes it easy to get a quick read on the pace set up, review numbers at the click of a mouse, and match the running style of the contenders to the expected pace of the race and track profile. It makes it easy to weed out bad bets. Anyway, I'm not here to shill for Syn6, but did I mention that you don't need to manuall input data?

One other thing that helps me is the use of an oddsline to ensure that I am getting value on my selection. I tend to go in this direction rather than betting two horses to win. It took me a long time to break out of the high percentage of winners mode and look toward the big price, (much) lower win percentage. Now I try to hit 11-14% winners, but my minimum mutual is $18.00 because I am insisting on overlays priced at 8/1 or higher. I should actually say that my mutuels are almost always $18.00...sometimes those late oddschanges getcha! This style works better for me, but I can see how others would prefer the original TPR approach set forth by Dick and Tom, etal.

BTW, the program I see screenshots of here at Pace and Cap' looks incredible!

Anyway, this is my first contribution, I hope I did not bore anyone.

Hello
 

hello NWearner

Thank you for the nice words
There are so many offshoots from Doc Sartins tree
and Its nice to see people winning
I enjoy reading good reports like you shared

Welcome to Pace and cap
Good Skill
Bill -admin

Welcome N,

Thanks for sharing your approach with Syn6. I think there ae several other current or previous users of Syn6 here so you may find some to share with.

That 8-1 cut-off must require some discipline and some mental toughness, and I presume that's one horse, as well. Do you find you need any particular psychological 'tricks' to cope well with the low hit rate? For myself, I learned long ago that I needed to be betting 2 horses and have a much higher hit rate (even using the best of Sartin software, and really trying to learn and own the methodology), to stave off the gremlins in the pit of my stomach!

Anyway, welcome and looking fwd to your take on this great game!

yours,

Ted

Hi Glen,

I'd buy that for a dollar.

:>)

I don't look at days if there's a faster, easier way. In some programs there's color coding. In the Daily Racing Form and some online publications there are actual "lines" that show the layoffs.

In the past I've agonized over days, but I tend to ignore that now if possible. I'm not saying it's more accurate. But it's certainly faster and it works well enough.

To illustrate, today's 7th race at Finger Lakes is a six furlong Claimer $20k. If you look at Pinky's last race you'll see the layoff line above his most recent race of 03Sep07.

I'll look for another layoff line and select the first one I can find that's the same distance type (sprint) on the same surface (dirt) where he didn't encounter trouble.

That brings me to the race of 14Jly07. That's the paceline I'm using. Done.

It took a few minutes to type this. The actual paceline selection took about two seconds, tops.

Hello NW,

Do track profiles work? Yes, they do.
Does SYN6 work? Yes, it does. I've had it for years.
Is automatic data entry easier and faster? Unquestionably yes.
Is using an oddsline a valid approach? Aye, indeed it is.

Your approach is interesting. As long as you've got the patience, backbone, bankroll and tolerance to handle the inevitable long, losing streaks you'll encounter it seems like a workable way to bet.

I daresay most people would fall apart using that kind of betting scheme.

Glad it works for you and welcome to the board.

Hi Ted,

I actually don't have any problem with the 8/1 because I am able to generate lots of action. One thing I failed to mention in my prior post is my use of the Syn6 oddsline. It ranks 5 contenders and generates odds for them. The oddsline is based on "other" factors - not TPR, so I didn't mention it in my prior response in this thread. I don't know what ingredients Bob Purdy put into his Projected Speed Rating Oddsline, but the recipe is working. What really makes it work though is the track profile. The PSRO will have no problem throwing longshots into the betting mix, but it is the track profile that helps weed out the bad bets.

I bet 1 or 2 horses in a race....it is usually one, however, as it is hard to find two longies with a chance both in terms of oddsline and running style for the race. The low hit rate doesn't bother me as I've long been in the realm of value betting. What is disconcerting at times is the long runouts that can occur. And I will confess to times where I relax the criteria a little, but those are actually few and far between. More typical is putting a bet in at 8/1 or higher and it drops or passing a bet at 6/1-7/1 and the odds rise.

Your software looks really nice in the screenshots. It looks like a nice mix of MPH numbers, basic numbers (TPR), info, and visuals. Really, it looks to have something or everyone.

Thanks and thanks. Like I said in a prior response, the runouts are the worst part, but hitting a few nice ones in a cluster is sa-weet.

Hi David,

I have a quick question for clarification. If today's distance is 6.0F, and you are looking for the first line at the same distance with no trouble, wouldn't that put you on the next line up - August 12th? They are actually very close anyway and show the same running style.

L.A.S.T. is truly and effective paceline selection method and is very quick...kind of like speed reading when you get used to it.

NW