Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - Limits of the Methodology?/ Cheap races

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- - Limits of the Methodology?/ Cheap races (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5328)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill V. (Post 49870)

Hi Jeff Yes I agree
This is just my opinion and many might think i'm nuts

Sometimes horse players seem to think that some horses
have trainers and some don't.
I think people maybe not to this extreme but something like the racing secretary goes to the barn and pulls 8 horses from their stalls and sends them to the starting gate , only some of them have trainers,
like entertainers some have agents and managers and some just are
from central casting. Just extras if you like.
I am a lot more convinced that its the match up and the horse that runs the race. But each horse in the race has a trainer and a jockey and an owner
the trainers are working against the other trainers They have to
have jockeys who are working to be the best to get more wins
and therefore more salary they are working against the other horses jockey
The owners want to win so they expect the trainer to win
The #9 horse put it all together A strong earner In form with a smart move by the trainer
The other connections in the race did what they could in this race
but It was just number nines day.

Bill

I look at it this way - if the trainer knew he was going to win, the horse would not have been 40/1. Knowing you're going to win is found money, and human greed or need in such a situation would have one bringing a truckload of money to the window.

I don't know the size of the pools involved, so for argument's sake, let's say he had 100 bucks on it at 40/1. Even if a 200 wager would have knocked it down to 30/1, he would have done it if it were "a sure thing."

The trainer can perhaps have thought that he had a good chance, or a better than usual chance, but how many other trainers in the race had the same thought?

Can the trainer predict traffic trouble? Or a bad start out of the gate. Or being carried wide? Maybe his horse stepped on a safety pin that morning.

There are no sure things, not at 40/1 or 1/10.

Clore,Win is not the only form of betting.

Bill,Good thoughts

Charlie
With all respect. After 12 years of using the program as per instruction
and guidelines from the follow up. I know that betting two horse
I am going to lose about 8 or 9 races each 20 race cycle
If I bet this race this would have been one of them

If I were to quote Mr Bradshaw I would say
"I know I'm going to lose races but I know why I lost them
and I don't let it send me into a tailspin"

What I do works best for ME, why? because I have to follow my heart and tell
myself Bill.You don't know what your doing
Bill You have no way to say which horse will get the lead or even what the pace will be
Bill,You don't understand tandem race
Bill You CAN NOT BET ONE HORSE !

So For me to throw out horses for any other reason then
they are not one of the top 5 total energy and primary line score
Is looking for trouble
The way I can win is to find a representative line that will show me
not which horses run fast but more important how they run fast

Matchers are smart and way out of my league
I agmire you but I would go broke fast if I went down
that road.

Bill

Jeff,
for your enjoyment. #9 good numbers and great attributes. I would have bet this horses even without numbers. His attributes are so strong that is behind my comprehension how QP send this horse at 28-1. Who said that trainers don't know how to train. As long they think that way is fine with me.
gl45

Bill

I'm not havig a go at you, all i'm doing is using your post to try to show how important it is to get the right horses as The Hat states

Input a pretender and it will mess up the readouts as you can see from the screenshots posted

More thought has to go into the pre-input stage as the computer cannot see the 1,2,5 being pretenders in todays Match Up, only we can

Charlie
Thank you for your input
I believe what this thread is showing is that many of us
are useing different methods and Its possible to win
almost any race type and class
We can all profit many ways. Things work best
when you believe in them and yourself

Bill

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill V. (Post 49880)

As they say Bill, there is more than one way to skin the cat and your right, it is possible to win any race type and class

The only barrier is our knowledge and understanding of who are the TRUE contenders in todays Match Up and who are not

What follows is meant to knock anyones Methodology

This is just a little demo of how a little more thought could turn a losing race into a winning one

Best of last 3 TE comparable , Top 5 kept

Same horses in Match Up Mode with Pace Projection

Further evalution, - Slow horses removed, non contenders imo - OUT

Tandem Line between 1 and 8 added