Paceless today,
TDN3

Pook

FTL guidelines eliminates to just two runners. 6,7. Knocked out the class of the field probable odds on #4 because of over 200 days off. Used race four back for the 6 because of rearing at the start and losing contact in the last. Trouble? Maybe maybe not. 7 has beaten 6 in three matchups. Up against it here but 7 is in front based on this screen.

Leaves one choice...#6

#6
Pook

Got a third. The race ran fairly close to prediction but 6 was beat by two NC's. 7 led for a bit. The 6 sat just off and looked good for a while but couldn't do it. 6 finally reversed a tandem with 7!

Pook

None of these race types are scheduled for Thursday.

Pook

I've always wondered about these types of races. We have been given plenty of insight into what happens when dedicated early horses match up - what to look for and how to handle to rest of the field, but not so much what dynamics happen deeper in the pack.

So for example we have 3 earlies vying for the lead and we are looking for someone who closed from 4th or farther back? Is that all? What about pressure from the middle of the pack? Lets say there are two or more pressers running perhaps a little closer to the lead distance-wise and perhaps a couple more running in 6th or 7th. Do they have to have separation from one another in order to pass horses and gain lengths?

The Hat said it took one unit of energy to pass a horse and another unit of energy to make up a length. What are these units, how quantified? Are they fifths of seconds, .08 of a foot per second 2nd or 3rd fraction? Always been a mystery to me.

Any ideas of how to view the interior of races in order to visualize who might emerge at the top of the stretch and carry on to the finish?

Thanks,

Hi Bill,

I have no idea as to how to view the interior of races other than selecting the horse that is best positioned (in front of the others) to take advantage of the race shape. That horse may be mid herd so part of the interior.

This is an experiment in developing a strategy using Hats theories, and RDSS to win paceless races. Means trying to find runners that will find themselves less than enthusiastically on the front end. Then consider who is best positioned with those front ones in mind. The thinking is that the strike rate will be low (lower than other Matchup patterns) but prices might make it worth it.

As with the other Matchup strategies and patterns predicting the first half or three quarters of the race is easier than being on the exact runner at the end. There are many ways for your plans to go wrong. One stat that bears this out is that races when looking for a runner to come through the field have a strike rate about 4 percentage points lower than those where you expect the runner to wire.

Pook

I see nothing scheduled for Friday.

Pook

I'm still a relative beginner at the Match Up, but I think that this might be a job for Voodoo. Looking through my notes, Voodoo #1 says if you can project any kind of pace for this race, look for an OTE that fought for 2 or more calls against the likely pace and that has another line where it ran well against the pace. Both should be recently (last 5 races).

Voodoo #2 is an OTE that had a power move (gain in lengths AND position) from 1st to 2nd call, or from 2nd to stretch call, preferably in its last race.

Good points Mike. Trying to dispense with the difficulty of pace projection with no early horses. Power moves are good.

Pook