Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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Quote:

Originally Posted by gl45 (Post 71941)

pat,
That's right. Just postime favorite. I'm using Bris speed numbers, also, as I go along I'm noticing how many time the dominant horse is winning, and I can say not many in my kind of races.
Good luck

This statement leads me to believe that you tracked all races, but that the dominant horse that is winning is winning in race's that you would normally not play, which are what if I may ask, sir?

Thanks

patrick

Pat,
I only play MNR, here are the race class that I play

Race Class
C5000
C5000NW26M
C5000NW16M
C5000NW3Y
C5000NW2Y
C5000NW1Y
C5000NW4L
C5000NW3L
C5000NW2L

also I don't play a race where the field is less than 7, and I only play 5.5f, 6f, mile and mile70 distances.

Quote:

Originally Posted by pktruckdriver (Post 71956)

Yes thank you for your research and quick replies.

If you use a swing horse, do you go 5 in a box or cap some more to decide who to leave out, boy this could go on and on, as I have so many questions.

It may be best for me to just be patient and wait my turn to beta test, and answer my questions myself, and then post them here for others to see as you did.

I have to admit your first post of the spreadsheet was very hard for me to understand , but the last one was perfect to read for me, I am still unable to use a spreadsheet efficiently yet, but making progress.

i was wondering also how win betting may go with this, have we determined yet what wins more E or L and or 1 or 2, of course I would think no, how could we determine this, it to me would be too evenly spread out among them all, except 1 may have advantage at a track with a very dominant speed bias, maybe, but otherwise I would think even give or take 5%, but then, ... there is so many questions, I must wait and try to answer them myself, if possible, and I should be able to by now, can't wait.

thank you again for your time

patrick

Pat,
Playing the same track, same distances and same race classes, you become familiar with trainers, jocks and most important horses.
I play exacta only.
Bias, variants I care less, I leave that to the pro. I play with raw numbers.
New pace is a very interesting concept, you got 4 horses at the top of the stretch, who's more likely to win. Once you have your 4 horses you can used any form of handicapping to select your winners, also don't worry about if E1 wins more than E2 or L2 etc....it is how you discover where the value is.
Good luck

just finished the month of June study for 2011

gl45,
You won 150 of 324 races played. 324x12=3888.00 invested. correct?
You say you won 3878.10from the 150 races you won. This looks like a break even at best proposition,unless the 3878.10 is after you deductedthe 12.00x150=1800.00 bet on
these 150 races.

rmath,
if that is the case, oh well. I'm not that good in math.
Thanks for point it out.

gl45,I was not trying to rock the boat but I do think you have a very good starting point.
If you could find a way to eliminate some of the lower payoffs you would show a profit.
Maybe passing the races where the favorite is below 8/5. I do not know if you keep track of the odds on the favorites in your playable races, if you do then try seeing what this would do for your average mutual.

rmath,
good catch. My idea was to find out how many times the favorite was in the new pace contenders, and as I went along I was adding the winnings and the losing money without considering the investment. Everything was based on four horses exacta. You can call it a senior moment.
will post a revised results for 2010and 2011

revised 2010 results and 2011 from 3/1/2011to present

If the favorite is one of the new pace 4 contenders, eliminate him and use the remain three contenders in a Ex box.
I don't know how this approach would work at different tracks, higher race classes, longer or shorter distances than what I used for this study.
The contenders are sorted by high ratings.
I the event of ties or 1 or 2 points differences between contenders, your handicapping expertise should help you to find the right one. Like race #10 at MNR last night, in this race for E2 the choices were #5 and #9 and for L2 were #3 and #6. With sound handicapping judgment these 4 horses would have provide a cold ex.