mess
 

Hi Jim

I worked the race too I threw out the 7
My picks were the 9 and the 2 but wih the short odds I passed

I did not like the race because of the sprinters and the 6
I see you and Chuckg went deep on the 6 for lines

yet you did not on the 7 both line 1 and 5 puts the seven on top

H1A NF
H2 Press Line 1 +
H3 Fulcrum E line 1 (+)
H4 Scrat
H5 sprinter Sus
H6 No recent form
H7 Sus no recent rt form
H8 Early NTL LIne 1 (+)
H9 Press Line 1 +

Attachment 32139

Attachment 32140

Attachment 32141

I think I didn't reach down on #7 because lines 2,3,and 4 were not good. I actually thought about the first line but it was a sprint. This was a bad race to do. Should not have tried it. Jim

I hope you don't mind my offering some insight.

IF you are going to go back to line 5 for the #6 horse, then you HAVE TO GO BACK to line 5 for the #7 horse. Keep in mind that I would eliminate BOTH horses and like Bill V, I would have PASSED this race. Let me explain.

The #6 horse shows nothing except ALW races. They are "state bred", but still ALW races. What that means is this. The horse has not been offered "FOR SALE" by way of a claiming race that shows anywhere in the past performances. When a horse suddenly shows up "FOR SALE" for the lowly price of $4,500 it generally indicates a "negative drop" in class. That's a bad thing.

By way of contrast, let's look at the #7 horse. You are correct in not using the last line, which is a sprint race. You were also correct that lines 2,3 and 4 were bad. BUT WHY were they bad?

There is more than one way for a horse to drop down in class. The first is the easy to recognize #6 horse. EVERYBODY recognizes that as a class drop.
In the case of the #7 horse, the class drop is harder to identify if you don't know what you are looking for or at.

Take note that in its' last 4 races there are no conditions. That means the horse was running in "OPEN" claiming races with NO CONDITION. Compared to the races prior to those races, the last four races were higher in class because there was no condition. Today, the horse is dropping back down to a "condition" claiming race.

When you begin to handicap a race, the first thing you should do is read the conditions. Now this isn't going to help you if you don't know what the condition means or if you don't recognize the conditions when you see them in the past performances. If you are not familiar with the various conditions, this is something you should learn.

Below are the two horses I have talked about here and I have marked the areas I discussed.

Hope this helps.

11/20-Fl 2nd Race
 

$100 w #3

:(:(:( Bad bet, should have hid #3.But it looked like a strong favorite.

11/20-Fl 3rd Race
 

$50 w #3
$20 W #5
$30 Pl #5

:):):) Win and Place

11/20-Fl 5th Race
 

$50 W #1
$20 W #8
$30 Pl #8

***

:(:(:( Loss