Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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Originally Posted by The Pook (Post 112087)

Good points Mike. Trying to dispense with the difficulty of pace projection with no early horses. Power moves are good.

Pook

In Jim's article on the 5 Step Approach To The Match Up, he describes a way to project pace in the absence of obvious front runners. I haven't tried this yet, but it looks like it is worth a shot. I see the principle as being to just find a reasonably fast pace for this class of horse, and measure each horse against it.

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Find the horse that has run the best against the fastest pace in his last race, at today's track, and at today's distance. Tandem races are good races used in this procedure. If none of the horse have run at today's distance consider any fast sprint, or any fast route line. This horse is the pace horse that all the other horses will be matched against.

This race from the pace horse will be used as the initial projected pace of today's race. All the other horses in the race must be able to run against this pace. Match every horse in the race, with the initial projected pace. Any horse that doesn't match today's pace will not be considered as a win contender.

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