Thanks but...
 

jms62,

Thanks for the positive reponse to my post, but I want to emphasize that this is a work-in-progress, a model rather than something as immutable as the word 'science' implies, and hope that anyone who reads it will regard it in that light. If these numbers continue to hold up that's great, but if not, they need to be corrected. The more constructive criticism we can make of the models we are using will only make them stronger - more accurate, and hopefully profitable. Thanks again.

Cheers,

B Jennet

Wild and Wooley Thrusday
 

Day 9 this month of auto template was a wild one for sure. :eek:

Night tracks paid off and the day tracks were dominated by losing value bets.


all in all looks to be a rebate players dream again (breaking even with lots of bets right?)

the races from yesterday in total

FIFTY horses bet

Updated totals for the month
 

..:)

Richie, I'm impressed with what I see but am curious as to an estimate of rebates assuming you had been making $20 bets.

Tell Mrs. Doris Go Yankees! I guess she didn't want to bet with me.

Good wagering but don't neglect your school work sonny boy. :D

Budman

By my estimates, Richie's 50 bets yesterday ($100 total) would have attracted $2.66 in rebates at Premier Turf Club (no Woodbine at PTC, which reduced the average % rebate) - 2.66% average on that mix of tracks. Other ADWs may do better, but not on the major tracks.

$20 x 50 bets = $1000 @ 2.66% = $26.60

Most of these tracks could support at least $50 win pool wagers (PEN?) before affecting payoffs, some much more.

Ted

Thanks Ted

The Law of Large Numbers
 

Hi Richie,

I don't know if you realize this, and I see Ted is kind of pointing you to it, but this rate of bankroll growth is spectacular. Because, in absolute terms, you're betting small amounts it may not strike you, but think of yourself as the average blackjack or poker pro with a 100k bank. In nine days of play, your autopaceline model has made 50% of your bank - 50k - plus rebate. In these situations (which do happen, but are rare, because the edge is much smaller), everybody's popping corks. Your autopaceline model is achieving a 20% ROI - don't forget that William Benter was making 35 million a year with a 28% ROI - throw in the level of rebate you'll be able to get at higher betting totals, and you're just about there.

So, if you have a day like this, where you basically flatline, just ignore it and, like a poker or blackjack player, think in terms of the long run. Blackjack players think of the long run because they know that given variance (luck), anything can happen in the short term, but in the long run, they have the edge. I know a guy, an excellent BJ player, who flatlined not for a day, but for six months a couple of years ago - fortunately he covers all his expenses in advance. In the next month, he made 100k - his EV (expected value) for the year. That's one of the big advantages of making many bets like this, you're getting into the long run more quickly, letting the Law of Large numbers work for you in smoothing out your variance.

Keep it rolling.

Cheers,

B Jennet

BJ,

Points well made, re bankroll growth and re Benter and his ROI. Although, before folks get to drooling too much, betting CT, PEN, DED, ZIA Win pools are not where Benter made his millions (Hong Kong exotics).

For that, here, need to find more bets at the major tracks, and eventually in exotic pools.

Ted

Updated.

Attachment 17961
** I seem to be off by $2.00, so like a good bookkeeper, I plugged it...

.

The day the music died
 

Friday 10/30 was the day the music died for "auto" killing virtually a whole months profit in one session.

There is one big problem with this and it's been coming. I cant continually be buried day after day where I need a 20-30 buck horse to get even. Yesterday it never came.

I recognize this pattern from the 90's when a friend and me analyzed for days the patterns of higher paying winners relative to our reads.

I will stop the betting here on this for now, take a small profit, bet enough to watch videos a few months.

Now it is time to see whats what with a couple of things. Now the hard work begins :)


Ted if you would update the table thing you have that would be great!

Screen shots of yesterdays debacle :eek: and final overall totals for the month