Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - E/L Screen 2.0 black box results opening week at EVD

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

My more specific question is: in the video is there any reference to also needing to be 5%+ more dominant than the 2nd Early horse in order to use the ES percentage sort to pick Early horses instead of the Hi SR sort. In the case of EVD 1 Apr 20 (below) the #6 horse is neither 62% of the top 2 E's, nor 25% of all ES points. It is only 5% more than the #2 Early.

Attachment 21880

I appreciate that this is a reason to choose Earlies from the Early % sort first rather than the Hi SR sort, but I need to tell the software the complete circumstances when to use the E% first.

It looks to me like the answer could be:

- if the #1E is 62%+ of the Top 2 ES points AND it has 25%+ ES points itself - OR -
- if the #1 E is 5%+ higher than the 2nd E (regardless of what % of ES points it has itself).

This second point does not stand out in my mind from the video. Of course I can just ask Dave, but I prefer to do my homework first (or get someone else to help me do the homework :))

Thoughts?

Ted

Ted,

Re: Is there any reference to also needing to be 5% more dominant than the 2nd early horse in order to use the ES% sort to pick early horses.

I say NO...After reviewing the video I could find no reference to 5%. In video 7,
(Pace Handicapping 502) GP R2 from 1/14/11 Dave specifically mentions a 5 point edge not 5%. This can be referenced about 27.30 into the video.

Ernie

Quote:

Originally Posted by SilentRun (Post 70747)

Ted,

Re: Is there any reference to also needing to be 5% more dominant than the 2nd early horse in order to use the ES% sort to pick early horses.

I say NO...After reviewing the video I could find no reference to 5%. In video 7,
(Pace Handicapping 502) GP R2 from 1/14/11 Dave specifically mentions a 5 point edge not 5%. This can be referenced about 27.30 into the video.

Ernie

Ernie, please check that section of the video again. The '5 points' he is referring to is coming from the % Early Column, not from the Hi or Lo Speed Rating points columns. SO he IS referring to a edge in a column of numbers measured in percent., in my opinion. And this measurement, the horse needs a minimum of 25%, maybe more, in order to be used as one of the E horses. It also has to survive the POR elimination process (Hi SR >= the designated POR figure). If the foregoing applies, it's one of the E horses. If not, we start looking at the highest 2 Hi SRs. This was my take on that exact same section you refer to. Of course, this can all be proven, disproven or nuanced over many races by practice and observation. I just want to initially acturately represent the original thinking.

If the above is accepted as true, and we use the 25%+ 5% edge #1 ranked E% horse (aka the RR horse), which is the 2nd E horse? Is it the 2nd E% horse having itself 25%+ and 5% edge over the 3rd E%. If there is none of those, then clearly we go to the Hi SR sort for the 2nd E horse, and in all cases, we include any 'Monster' horses who are E.

This latter approach is the one I'm working on so far for the 2nd E horse. None of this is included in the current version.

And - this discussion is not considering ANY corollories we may bring in from other RDSS readouts measuring Early vs Late energy disbursement ability - or any Matchup analysis as to whether an E horse is known as a Fighter, etc. All valuable things to consider in their way.

This is just from the original rules of NewPace, as described so far by Dave.

Ernie, BTW, I removed this reply of yours from the public thread (though I know I prompted the feedback, and thanks for it) - let's continue it here.

Thanks,

Ted

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ted Craven (Post 70810)

Ted,

I reviewed the video again and yes...YOU ARE CORRECT the '5 points' he is referring to is for the % early column and not from the Hi or Low speed rating points column.

Ernie