Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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tompkins 03-11-2006 06:30 PM

big race at Oaklawn
 
1 Attachment(s)
putting this up at 8 minutes to post. Let's see if this same "order" shows up again. ODDS say no wager.

tompkins 03-11-2006 06:47 PM

in another ROUTE the top three e/l's run in the top three spots, but no bet.."order within chaos" still there.

10th race - Oaklawn Park - March 11, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
1 Round Pond 3.20 2.20 2.20
2 Happy Ticket 2.40 2.20
6 Platinum Ballet 2.80

tompkins 03-11-2006 07:23 PM

1 Attachment(s)
1th race - Oaklawn Park - March 11, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
6 Sayhellotolarry 5.20 3.60 3.20
1 R's Star 11.00 5.60
3 Instant Messenger 6.00

a route again so THINGS just don't repeat this often without there being something to it.

tompkins 03-11-2006 07:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by admin
Yes and also adding a bit of
comperable compitition factor

EYES wide open: you JUST consider what the HORSE did, not the trainer, not the rider, not the track (unless this one is 0 for 10 and it is off today) not the horses next to him, JUST THE HORSE. As I understand it the HORSE's energy and energy distribution are what we look at.

tompkins 03-11-2006 07:53 PM

that last post missed the mark: I mean we are looking at HORSES, NOT performances

admin 03-12-2006 06:36 AM

E/L Relativity Step by Step
 
1 Attachment(s)
Hi Mr Tompkins
This is race 5 from Sat.0311
I think you can use this. By doing this step by step- I can more clearly
get a better idea of what your showing
I know you will like these results

Here are my pace lines I'm using Val 3
maybe you can show what happens on Spec

Lines
Horse 1 Line 2 SR = 74 I see the 87 for line 1 in the mud
This horse can't run over a 74 on a fast track
Horse 1a Scr
Horse 2 Line 1 SR = 84
Horse 3 No Line
Horse 4 Line 1 SR = 83
Horse 5 No Line
Horse 6 Line 2 SR = 86
Horse 7 Line 4 SR =78
Horse 8 Line 2 SR = 83

Total Energy/PLS Eliminations

Take out Horse # 1

Top 5 contenders

BL/BL - VDC
6 6
2 2 - 4
4 8
8 7
7

and now the late/ early graph

The 6 and 8 are the top 2 most early and also Ranked 1 and 2 Total Energy

Code:


The results
8  $21.20  $8.00  $5.40
6              $5.60  $5.00
7                        $3.80


jms62 03-12-2006 07:00 AM

As stated previously... It has merit for sprints... It'll catch a few winners for Routes... Mr. Tompkins won't share or doesn't have statistics on its long term performance in routes so I <B>CAUTION<B> anyone on applying it without running a 20 race test....

admin 03-12-2006 07:10 AM

Routes
 
It does seem like it would not work so well
on routes
I also believe its the Total Energy readout thats
the key, In my example the 8 closed !

jms62 03-12-2006 08:26 AM

I break my Handicapping into "Sessions" at a paticular track.. I define a session as a period between breaks. For instance AQU is dark Mon-Tues so my "Session" is Wed-Sun. This Session so far March 8-11 in the 6 fr races I track (no madien) finds that horses ranked 1-2 E/L have won 7 out of 11 races... Many times I've seen biases not carry over to the first race day of a new "session". Often times I've wondered if the maintence of the track that goes on in the dark days is done to intentially eliminate such biases...

tompkins 03-12-2006 12:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by admin
It does seem like it would not work so well
on routes
I also believe its the Total Energy readout thats
the key, In my example the 8 closed !

You totally missed the point so of course it won't come out that way. I has EVERYTHING to do with seeing a SECOND, earlier line for the same horse CLOSE to the time the OTHER line is there. It is the combination of the TWO lines one looks for and you didn't do antying like that (going back to a single line) so of course it won't come close to working.


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