this was one helova cool thread! thanks guys!

The problem seems to be this. No matter what line you choose, you have no idea what the "match up" was for that race and it was THAT match up that allowed the horse to perofrm as it did in that race. So, without knowing that races match up and not being able to compare that races match up to todays match up, how can you select that race for todays comparison? If you are using a line where the horse ran well, it seems you need to know if todays match up is the same as that lines match up or the horse will not perform in the same way. And this seems to be true for each line selected for each horse being evaluated for todays race.

From the running line you can see how a horse has performed against the Pace of Race in one particular race, from multiple past running lines you gather a "Picture" of the horses normal running style and what it's normally capable of

From the "Picture" of each horse, you Match Up the horse against todays Projected Pace and the others horses to find the TRUE contenders in todays race




A better explanation and Match Up teaching material can be found in the Hat Check

Would I be right in saying look for best it has run ,then check to see what it has been running against.
That way you will see if it is running in or out of form.
Doing this from work so may not have a proper handle of it.
Michael
Ps a good thread for us newbie's to get to grips with it

A lot of this was said years ago when this thread first started.

Its all about being able to repeat an effort that is within range of the most current adjusted speed ratings (ASRs). There are lots of races restricted to non winners of 2,3 and even 4. These horses rarely win back to back so a winner at Cl 8000 N2L is very unlikely to win next out for Cl 8000 N3L, besides its normally a rise in class anyway. they will often look to have great lines and if you leave them in the contender mix you will probably kick out a horse normally within the TPR 5 point range. I mark these last win types as non contenders until its clear that there are no other horses that can run at the higher class of race. Horses with otherwise lackluster pacelines one or more levels higher, dropping into todays race should be given a chance to run better at the lower class. Sure if a horse lost at 10000 by a neck and now runs for 8000 he should be looked upon favorably, but there usually is no price associated with this kind of move.

On the subject of horses rising in class. Keep them out of the contender screen until you have dealt with any horse running well at the level or dropping in class. If you cannot find four or five horses that are not rising in class I would be very surprised. Class risers do not win very often.

Look at the horse's race record. Horses that are 1/28, 1/36, 1/64 are not going to repeat the last ASR even if its the best of today's horses. Look for horses with the fewest races unless the 1/28's have run the last two or three races at or about the same ASRs that are competitive in today's field. Its more likely that horses that are 1/8, 1/12, lifetime, etc. are going to be the true competitors if their lines are competitive.

A long time ago FTL told us to expect horses dropping in class to run better (faster). Check this out! If a horse runs in a 6500 claimer and gets an ASR of 75, if it next runs in an 8000 claimer it will probably run an ASR of about 72. if you use the ASR 75 line, you give the horse too much credit. It works in reverse as well, and you can usually see that correlation in the PPs of cheaper horses. Go with what you see in the PPs and choose a line accordingly.

Now of course, you need to see what the horse has done historically (last 10 races in RDSS). There are so many instances where a horse runs more than 4-5 points higher ASR in its last race and its never run that fast before, or if it did, you can see it never put two races like that back to back. In these cases I look for a line within the confines of the horses usual ASR and pick one with approximately the same E/L balance that is less good. HOrses chosen this way, may or may not be at the top of the TPR screen, but in any event using these second best lines will not distort the top to bottom range of the TPR screen.

Anyway, I played the last three weeks at Will Rogers Downs with decent success using these tools. Allowance races at WRD had about the same race class as 5,000 claimers non winners in the last six months, so overall class of stock was LOW.

Good post Bill

Very Nice to have conditions of race detected as these are very good topics to talk about if you can connect with right horse.

Basically know its limits and of those it's racing against today, or is that too simple .
I know a lot more goes into it but cutting it short it could still win a higher class if the others were out of form, which you look for to see something that has been missed by others, which in turn gets better returns
Thanks for the swift answers and the info