Aqueduct Race 1 / Step by Step
 

Let's work today's 1st Race at Aqueduct. All kinds of issues to be sure. But maybe there is some MONEY here too.

8f Dirt

Rich

ok I will show the f4 tab again for all the horses. In THIS race as u will see I am going to have to make some calls that might make me look rather foolish after the race. This race is a bit different then the Tampa race the other day.

Here is horse 1 - last race e/l shows E/p - shows a 1 turn mile down below from this track matching -ok

last line

horse 2 - 3 back is best but is extreme late on graph - the 1 race he shows going 1 turn route he ran early - sticking with the best of last 2 lines where e/l is much closer to reality - of those line 2 is best

line 2

Horse 3 is layoff horse -so gonna use his 1st race ever which was off a layoff since it was his 1st race ever - e/l from that race IS his style - 1 turn Bel 7.5 matches todays structure very nicely

line 4 :eek:

Horse 4 - ok using last line with that "pre" style - preferred style is early but for him to get that "pre" rating from the inner track 8f distance trust me he ran EARLY there - THAT distance produced readout after readout on e/l's of LATE ok - so for that to show "pre" he ran early man- let's use it with confidence

anyone wanting to check this open a few Aqu cards - go to races where the horse had inner track 8f lines showing - hit f4 and LOOK at the e/l designations for the races

back to work here

last line

horse 5 - lightly raced coming off win line - e/l is xtreme late as noted in the box on top -not betting this horse under any condition - leave him in to be thrown out later

last line

horse 6 - another call here - no way I can use the last line - xtreme late again - shows 2 1 turn routes below both with early style -gonna give him the 1st line I come too that has any kind of "early" in the esp designation - that is line 4 at 7f at this track - this is getting hairy man.

umm after all this issue stuff if anyone thinks I am betting a low priced horse here as my friend Charlie would say " fugghedabout it"

line 4

Horse 7 - line 2 is best - e/l is "s/p" - shows exact same read below at 1 turn route - easy call -


line 2

horse 8 ( 20/1 ml) - last line is best - at this distance from Philly - e/l has been repeated

long shot horse here - based on Sr should be projecting in our final mix -

last line

horse 9 - just broke maiden - just took 2 races to do it -who knows what this one is capable of - last line and the e/l has been consistent in this one's 2 starts

last line

ok here is the e/l graph of the whole field - see on the bottom my reminder shows up about that extreme late horse - also see I have marked him for a hide right NOW - gotta get him out of my readouts before he screws everything up - if he beats me my bad -

hiding the # 5 Tally as shown on bottom - cause - xtreme late on graph

"speed freaks" are starting to salivate about now :)

go head

ok with the # 5 removed here is Perceptor - up on top Per-1 shows the #'s 1-2-9 as being weakest by far. so gonna hide all three of them NOW

btw I am hiding the top 2 ml favorites in the #'s 1 and 2 ok? this race is NOT for the faint of heart man.

hiding 1-2-9

Final Five
 

we are now reduced to 5

here is the e/l graph

3 screen - Incremental match up

4 screen - matchup showing computed beaten lenghts

6 screen - Perceptor 1 and 2

7 screen - velocity/deceleration

8 screen - Summary

B screen - BL/BL

let's see what shakes out

Perceptor

Scratches
 

they scratched 2 of our top 3 horses in the #'s 3 and 4.

ok what I did is scratch them - then remove that xtreme late # 5 as beofre - got down to 6 then scrathced the # 2 ( ml fav) who was nothing on readouts ok?

NOW here are the resulting screen shots AFTER scratches

e/l graph

4 screen -matchup

Summary

bl/bl - are u serious -

Result
 

it's either 2-1 or 1-2 - chalk - chalk

I took win bets on the #7 and # 8 and tore em up

ok

Rich

remember this is one of the HOMES of early pace
 

the e/l relatively shows that there are three close. This screen has to be part of any evaluation, PARTICULARLY at Aqueduct.

They were all too low to bet however.

Work / Miss
 

Excellent job Rich

I just walked in and followed the steps and noted your comments
Too bad this one gets marked as a miss the low odds hide horse won
Move on as far as betting goes but I and i'm sure others learned many tips

Thanks Bill

# 8 went off at 24/1. odds too low??

lol

Rich

three things
 

The eight was coming in from Philly which often plays too fast, it was heading the wrong way velocity and deceleration wise, and believe it or not, had an e/l too high for even me. To make e/l relativity work, you have to see a variation in two e/l lines to show, to me at least, this one has a OPTION of speed or taking back. When BOTH lines are over it is tougher to wager, but those odds might have convinced me to back it as well. Case in point the 2 showed that adaptablity.