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2016 Kentucky Derby Prep Races
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2016 Holy Bull chart - Mohaymen
Attachment 39476 It is still early but the prep races towards the 2016 Kentucky Derby are underway. The winner of the Holy Bull was very, very impressive!! It was its first race since late November and it ran one ultra sharp race off the two month freshening. The trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has a major contender for the Derby. In its next race, the Fountain of Youth, it might expend its energy chasing a faster pace to build its foundation for the Derby. Holy Bull pace fractions- evaluation 24.64 49.06 112.52 136.04 and final time of 142.07 Mohaymen strolled along behind horses in a soft 49.06 opening 4Furlong pace but put on the accelerators with a sub 23.46 turn time followed by another impressive 23.52 fraction from the 6Furlong mark to the mile marker and out in 6 seconds flat for the last sixteenth of a mile EASILY without any hard exertion. This prep race is an impressive sustained paceline. So fingers crossed and let the journey begin towards the Run for the Roses to the 2016 Kentucky Derby.;) |
Robert Lewis Stakes 1 1/16th
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Mor Spirit
Result chart: Attachment 39526 Bob Baffert is back in the Derby chase with Mor Spirit in 2016, but it is obviously Mor Spirit is no American Pharoah. In the Robert Lewis, Mor Spirit chased some moderate soft fractions of 47.4 for 4 furlongs and 112.1 for 6 furlongs with a respectable 30.70 last fraction. When we evaluate the last fraction of 30.70 of Mor Spirit, it is one analysis to determine its innate ability to compete competitively at the Kentucky Derby distance but it must be analyze in context of the early pace fraction it had to exert. In general, it is nothing extraordinary if it had chased an early 6 furlong fractions of 114.0 or slower. But if the Derby contender had exerted a 6 furlong fraction of 112 or faster and then if it had came home in 30 and change, then we should take this Derby contender seriously. So in general; what was the last closing fraction in relation to the early pace exerted... Here are a couple of past Derby winners to compare: I'll Have Another-2012 Derby winner Attachment 39527 American Pharoah-2015 Triple Crown winner Attachment 39528 What was very impressive about American Pharoah's race in the Front Runner Stakes was it was its first two turn route race and Pharoah ran this race in September of its two year old season. These posts are JMHO and personal observations through the years following the Kentucky Derby contenders. Until the next prep race...:) |
The Derby trail continues...
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El Camino Real Derby
Attachment 39579 Frank Conversation wins this Derby prep with a soft Beyer number of 86 but I have lost respect for the usefulness of Beyer Speed numbers many years ago. Besides, Beyers speed numbers suffers from "shrinking numbers" as Beyer based his Beyers numbers on $10,000K claiming pars. (discussion for another thread) Frank Conversation will probably stay on the synthetics with the Spiral Stakes or Blue Grass stakes as its next race. The El Camino Real had soft early fractions so we move on to evaluate other Derby prep races. Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park Attachment 39580 Grade 3 Derby prep race worth $500,000!! Great meet and great purse offerings at this meet.. In the Southwest stakes, the winner Suddenbrekingnews and the runner-up came from 14th and 11th positions away from the early pace duel over a deep track labeled at good. After an early pace of 112.1 for 6 furlongs, the closing fraction of 32.4 seems very soft. Suddenbrekingnews came home in 31.0 for his last fraction but it was accomplished with a moderate 114.0 fraction for the early 6 furlong fraction. So nothing spectacular... Risen Star Stakes at the Fairgrounds... Attachment 39581 A much anticipated race for the race favorite, Airoforce but Airoforce disappointed big time as he finished "up the track", second to last in the Risen Star race. The winner Gun Runner ran well but the race's energy distribution leaves much to desire. Candy My Boy exerted the early fraction in a quick 46.1 for the opening fraction and a 111.1 for 6 furlongs but the group came home staggering in 32.2 for the closing fraction. Look for Airoforce to redeem himself but on synthetic surface as more likely, this horse prefers the quirky surface. Maybe, the Spiral Stakes or the Blue Grass will be next on the agenda. We move forward to the upcoming Derby preps.... |
Foutain of Youth Stakes
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The Fountain of Youth Stakes was a much anticipated race for Mohaymen and he did not disappoint. Zulu ran a big effort for his first two turn route race for Pletcher even though this one finished 2 and 1/4 lengths behind Mohaymen at the finish line. Look for Zulu to duck Mohaymen and seek a Derby prep victory away from Mohaymen.
As expected, Mohaymen expended his energy early in the Fountain of Youth as he was much closer to the early pace of 47.0 for four furlongs and 111.0 for six furlongs with a final time of 142.4 for the finish. This might be the same race as the Holy Bull even though Mohaymen finish with a faster time of 142.0 for the Holy Bull but ran a much slower early pace fractions. As impressive as Mohaymen has been so far in the early Derby preps; I'm on the lookout for a dominant early energy Derby contender to come out of hiding in the upcoming Derby preps.;) Attachment 39602 |
Gotham Stakes
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Mohaymen's stablemate, Shagaf won the Gotham
Attachment 39943 Shagaf, a stablemate of Mohaymen but trained by Chad Brown wins the Gotham over a tiring Aqueduct dirt surface. In a previous stakes race at the same distance, Mei Ling, a 4 year old filly trained by Todd Pletcher won the race after "walking the dog" on the early fractions ( 48 for 4F and 112.4 for 6 F) and stopping the tele-timer in 1:45. In the Gotham, Laoban, a West coast horse, carved out a much quicker fractions of 47 for 4F and 111.3 for 6 F before he got overtaken at the finish line by Shagaf. The closing fraction of 34.0 by Shagaf will be a huge question mark going added distance in the near Derby preps, even if it was over a tiring track. The next race for Shagaf will be the Wood Memorial at the same track. So far, it looks like Mohaymen, Greenpointcrusader, and Nyquist are the top contenders for the 2016 Kentucky Derby. Nyquist, trained by Doug O'Neil seems to be prepping light for his Derby quest, but O'Neil has won a Derby previously with I'll Have Another, so I won't question his choice of prep races. Bigger and more important Derby prep races are ahead. Two months to go until the "Big Dance." :cool: |
San Felipe Stakes and Tampa Bay Derby
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San Felipe Stake chart
Attachment 40109 Danzing Candy wired the San Felipe Stake which everyone thought was a very competitive field even though it had had six contenders. Danzing Candy's early pace fractions were: 23.0 46.11 for 4F 1:11 for 6F and a final time of 1:43 for the mile and 1/16th. Once again, the final fraction of 32.0 begets the question to compete competitively for the Derby distance. Danzing Candy beat Baffert's top gun in Mor Spirit and Exaggerator who finished second to Nyquist in its last race. Tampa Bay Derby Attachment 40110 Pletcher-trainees run one-two in this race. Destin sets a track record for the distance but I was more impressed with Outwork's effort even though he lost to his stablemate. This was Outwork's first effort in a route race and two-turns; thus it was an impressive race. Outwork carved out fractions of 47.4 for 4F 111.2 for 6F and a final time of 142.4... Decent final fraction of 31.1 by Destin... |
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Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park
Attachment 40221 Bob Baffert never seems to lack a major contender each year for the Kentucky Derby. Cupid is now a major contender for the Arkansas Derby. Cupid seem to have been spooked by a late afternoon shadow when entering the homestretch. In the Rebel Stakes, Cupid forced all the early pace fractions; after 6 furlongs of 112.11, Cupid came home in 31.70. Meydan- UAE Derby 1 3/16thM I have to track down TrakUs charts to evaluate the winner Lani from Japan. Louisiana Derby Attachment 40222 Gun Runner did not impressed many speed handicappers with his race in the Louisiana Derby but I feel that Gun Runner is a legitimate contender for the Derby off his Risen Star winning performance. Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park on synthetic surface Attachment 40223 There were five horses separated by a length or less. It was also run on synthetics...Why not card this race on turf?....:rolleyes: Florida Derby at Gulfstream Attachment 40224 Nice win by Nyquist who will be the morning line favorite for this year's Kentucky Derby after the dismal performance by Mohaymen. Nyquist is still undefeated from his two year-old season and has an unblemished record. Nyquist did bored in the stretch during the Florida Derby. Nyquist finished in 37.80 after setting 111:40 for 6 furlongs; a respectable final fraction for 9 furlongs is sub-37.0. Some will questioned that Mohaymen faded during the last part of the Florida Derby but there have been several past Derby winners who did the same. Maybe the trainer did not have Mohaymen 100%...a lot of question marks for a former leading Derby contender. Here is a past performance of Thunder Gulch who also faded in the stretch in his last Derby prep race: Attachment 40225 |
Loving this thread, it will be fun after the derby and triple crown races to come back to this and read over it after the fact. Keep it up, I'm still looking for my derby horse.:confused:
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One month to go to the "Big Dance"
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Meydan: UAE Derby Attachment 40226 Look at those dawdling early pace fractions.... fractional times of Lani: 27.33 50.82 for 4F 1:14.22 for 6F and 139.02 for mile and 1:58.41 for 1mile and 3/16 Maybe, we can compare with California Chrome fractional times in the World Cup. Attachment 40227 |
Should be interesting. I have entered the race info for all graded races from BC on to the present and have 68 lines of data for horses that might show up on the first Saturday in May. With most of the Derbies left to run there should be as many as 40 or 50 more data lines to enter before the non-contenders start to fall off the trail as April ends and May begins. All of this in prep for a Marathon look at the Derby.
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only a month away...but still a long way to go.....thanks for all the info Bill
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I will post an update once the mud clears...
Lonespeed's post was my wake up call to get off my rear and start the process for this year. |
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Lol:p I didn't mean to "light the proverbial match":eek: I will look forward to your "marathon analysis" with great enthusiasm!!:cool: |
Major Derby Preps this weekend
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This weekend, we will see major Derby contenders run in three major Derby prep races.
Attachment 40261 Blue Grass Stakes Attachment 40262 Todd Pletcher should have a strong showing this weekend in two of the three major Derby prep races. Zulu should distribute its energy late in the Blue Grass while dictating the Blue Grass early pace fractions while Outwork is expected to expend its energy early in the Wood Memorial. Wood Memorial Stakes at Aqueduct Attachment 40263 Santa Anita Derby Attachment 40264 Let's evaluate jockey Gary Stevens' remarks about the objective in the Santa Anita Derby. Attachment 40265 Depending on the objectives, one does prep in a million dollar race...:eek: |
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Race fractions - 24.63 48.72 1:12.56 1:37.46 Lani Fractions - 25.48 49.11 1:12.64 1:37.59 As far as a variant. The UAE Derby final time for Lani was about the same as Mubtaahij's from 2015, but the Dubai World cup was quite a bit faster in 2016 than 2015 with 8 horses running faster in 2016 than the winning time in 2015. So, anecdotally the track was probably faster in 2016 than 2015. |
Many thanks
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Thanks for the info....But more importantly, welcome to Pace and Cap after waking up from your hibernation of 5.5 years. Wow!! Your first post after signing up almost 6 years ago.. :eek: Ted...this must be a record?????;) This was a great contribution....:cool: Attachment 40267 |
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Yeah, I'm a spring handicapper. The wife only "allows" me a certain number of Saturdays a year, so, I'm usually done for the year after the Triple Crown. For some reason, she thinks I should spend time with her. :D I usually don't start getting into it until Kentucky Derby time, but I am doing more of the prep races this year. |
result charts
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Blue Grass chart
Attachment 40279 Brody's Cause rebounds back to form to win the Blue Grass with a 37.60 final fraction after going 6F in 112.60. Brody's Cause might need to improve for the run for the Roses. Wood Memorial chart Attachment 40281 Outwork wins an ugly race time-wise and a questionable victory over a maiden- Trojan Nation over a muddy-sealed track that was tiring over the last 3 furlongs of the 9F distance. But energy-performance- wise, there is a world of difference between fighting the early pace and fighting to the finish line versus laying far behind the early pace and making one late run at the wire. The difference was a head at the finish line but one must evaluate each horse in context of its individual performance and its form cycle. Regardless, this is an ugly race to use to evaluate Derby contenders. Santa Anita Derby chart Attachment 40280 The Desormeaux brothers win the Santa Anita Derby as jockey Kent Desormeaux rode his brother's trained Exaggerator to victory over a sealed sloppy track. One huge question?:eek::confused::eek:....What in the world was jockey Mike Smith trying to do with his horse, Danzing Candy as his horse set blazing early pace fractions of 45.24 for 4 furlongs and 110.12 for 6 furlongs. Mike Smith has done this with Bodemeister in the 2012 Kentucky Derby and Palice Malice in the 2013 Kentucky Derby. Now, I have a lot of respect for the Hall of Fame jockey; maybe these are just isolated instances... Exaggerator wins the Santa Anita Derby by running a default race laying far behind the extreme fast early pace set by Danzing Candy. Exaggerator ran his last 3F in 37.60 after running 6 F in 1:12 before and track variant adjustments. The next and last major Derby prep race: the Arkansas Derby and the anticipated performance of Cupid..... |
Derby talk over at PaceAdvantage.com
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http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...12#post1975012 I was reading this poster's post(SBCaris) with interest until he "sucker-punched" me with his sales pitch at the end of his post. Attachment 40282 Attachment 40283 |
What two of the three winners last week had in common + a long shot
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Looking at the PPs from last Saturday I thought it was interesting to see the moves made both in lengths gained and horses passed:
At Aqueduct Trojan Nation made up position and lengths in its maiden win. Looked long and hard at it, but left it off ticket at 88/1, ugh; At SA, see all the blue lines in the PPs for Exaggerator when allowed to run in mid to late pack, even won a big purse on the lead at the Delta Downs short track; Keeneland set up for a closer (the two earlies had EPR's of +5 and +10) and look who had all the moves, Brody's Cause, My Man Sam and Cherry Wine finished 1-2-3. Could be a lot of horses running from far back at Churchill Downs. Without seeing the entire field any horse that is versatile enough to run mid pack should have an advantage if the Derby has its usually number of speed balls trying to crack 111 for the first six furlongs. |
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Thanks for your work-up of these races... |
Final fraction in conjunction of early pace expended
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Many focus exclusively on the closing fraction when evaluating Derby contenders- stretching out to compete at the Derby distance of a mile and 1/4. But these type of analyses can be "frivolous at best" and deceiving in determining the intrinsic ability of horses getting the "extra furlong."
All horses can run a mile and 1/4 distance but each contender can sustained its own ability running at a certain individual early pace. A final 3/8 fraction of 37 and change is a parameter of gauge but only if it's evaluated with the early pace energy expended; does the final 3/8 fraction have significant value. It's the same method of pace evaluations that the Sartin Methodology is based on. Final times only has significance if one considers the match-up of the early pace; and not the ranking of the final time of races. Here are some examples of some of the top Derby winners of the past who did not run under 38.0 fractions for their final 3/8 fractions. They ran the final 3/8 in 38.0 BUT after setting fractions in 1:09 and change..... Attachment 40287 Attachment 40289 Attachment 40288 I have included the past performance for Captain Bodgit from the same year as Silver Charm in the 1997 Kentucky Derby to point out that Silver Charm had a final 3/8 fraction of 38.60 after a scorching 6F in 1:09 was just good enough to best Captain Bodgit who had a final 3/8 fraction in 35.80 but after a mediocre 112.40 for 6 furlongs. Silver Charm's last 3/8 fraction was almost 3 full seconds slower than Captain Bodgit but Silver Charm expended a 6F early pace fraction more than 3 seconds faster than Captain Bodgit. Maybe this match-up can serve as a bench mark for an imaginary inflection point for the parameters for early pace expenditures versus last 3/8 final fraction ability. (just my two cents;)) |
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Derby Early Speedsters
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Well, based on the graded races since last Breeders Cup here are the horses who might want the lead in the Derby. The light purple times are the fastest in the first three calls. Then there is some guy who wants tickets to the Derby with a fast sprinter that might go nuts for 6 furlongs on the lead. It the races goes anywhere near 112.00 on a fast track some of these might have a chance, otherwise, its no joy:confused:
Looking a little farther into it, find the horses that break in the top 2 or 3 consistenly to see how many might attempt the lead. BTW I do not have a points count so there are probably several here with no chance of starting. Enjoy |
Re: Nyquist. don't forget that he has already proven that he can win off the pace, as attested to by his come from behind win in the BC Juvenile. He does not need to lead, which is a really good thing IMHO. I included his 7 furlong win in case someone wanted to project it to 8.5 or 9 furlongs, so if he chose to go to the lead, he would leave crispy critters in his wake at least until the top of the stretch, but then look out for the bobbers and weavers coming from the parking lot and possibly a true garrison finish!
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Points total of top 20 Derby contenders
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Here are the Kentucky Derby Points Total as of 4/09/2016
Attachment 40291 Attachment 40292 Horses circled in red color are those who might move up in points against Cupid in the Arkansas Derby. P.S. Bill, you might want to add Cupid to the list of early pace horses.;) |
Cupid is already on the list, see line 3.
Thanks for the current point totals. I will find a place for them on the sheet. |
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Great link to Derby "info" galore!!!
A link to a great Derby contribution by Bill Finley.
http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com.../tdn160414.pdf Great link to an early look of the top 12 Derby contenders with past performances and some performance numbers by Equineline and Thorograph. Kudos to Bill Finley and Winstar.....:cool: P.s. Bill Lyster, another site for horse racing news....;) |
Past performances of some of the top contenders
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Here is an early look of some of the past performance lines of the top Derby contenders....
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the others
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Arkansas Derby chart
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Arkansas Derby Chart:
Attachment 40391 The horses that were at the back of the pack after the fast early pace set by Gettysburg were the first three finishers at the wire. Looking at the early pace run over the Oaklawn Park race track which is deep and similar to Churchill; this race fell apart as indicated by the 4F pace in 46 1/5 and 6Furlongs in 110 3/5 and the last 3/8ths in 39 2/5. Creator 6F in 112 3/5 and final 3/8ths in 37 2/5 Suddenbrekingnews (owner's spelling) 6F in 112 2/5 and final 3/8ths in 37 3/5- accounting for troubled trip Whitmore 6F in 112 1/5 and final 3/8ths in 38.0 Gettyburg's fast early pace doomed Baffert's Cupid who never faced such early pace pressure in his prior prep races. This was a disappointing Derby prep season as there were few stellar performances. Indeed, we have an undefeated champion colt in Nyquist; but looking at energy distributions and (whatever) speed numbers- it has been a mediocre 3 year-old colt crop this year. Yes, we have the undefeated and untested 3 year-old filly Songbird..... |
Final 2016 Kentucky Derby points total
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Attachment 40393 The top twenty points leaders will comprise the 2016 Derby field pending late scratches or defections. |
Latest Derby update:
According to Drf.com Trainer Bob Baffert has remove Cupid from the Derby, which will allow Mo Tom to be part of the 20 horse field. |
Anyone know where I can get Lan's past performances. They are only ones I have not found as yet.
Agree with LS, about non spectacular prep results. None of the top five or so mile times from a marathon standpoint appear to be coming from the most recent races, not what you would like to see from horses supposedly on the improve. For instance, Mohaymen has the 1st and 4th best mile time from races in January and February, but appeared to regress vs. Nyquist. I am thinking that with the way the top contenders like to race that OTE types will prevail, and heaven knows how many we have seen charge from way behind this year. What with traffic and all, it might call for a big spread for win on Derby day. I will have more when the field is finalized later in the month. |
pps of Lani-Japanese import
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Thanks Lone Speed, that really adds clarity to the info pool, don't you think!!??
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Here is a link to past race video of races of Lani.. http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Lani# |
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