Kentucky Derby / Energy!
 

Here is my readout for the Derby using this software.

I am a NOVICE with this but wanted to putz around.

I entered every Grade 1 and Grade 2 win and place line

used 9f as distance of race and 148.00 as time that horses are adjusted to.

I trusted the auto adjust 100% - I made NO user adjustments whatsoever.

Biggest BUST is gonna be Lawyer Ron that everyone is hyping man

NO CHANCE looking at my readouts - NO CHANCE

Race initially started out variegated "Early" - then thru the chopping out process has wound up variegating "Sustained"

have the race down to 4 contenders after starting with like 20. Really should chop Barbaro out and make 3.


Brother Derek is the "Energizer" and also the "Paragon A" horse. In addition the "true" 0.00 MUV horse


SweetnorthernSaint is the designated "Paragon B" horse. That is "Win Energy" according to Variegate. Also on that Paragon are Brother Derek and Point Determined.

This Brother Derek is showing up on every readout. He could be the one.

Designated Win Horse - SweetnorthernSaint
Secondary Win Contenders - Brother Derek and Point Determined

lot of fun working this race

screen shots

Richie:

Do you mond going back in and using AP Warrior's San Felipe race to see where and how that race stacks up with the three contenders you are left with.

thanks,

Dap!

Synergism II Readouts
 

Richie:

To piggy back on you thread I came up with the following raw readouts

Synergism II Cont:
 

Second Screen Shot:

Synergism II Cont:
 

Third Screen Shot:

Hey Dap

thats the line I had used for him. He has NOTHING off that line.

I am making NO adjustments other than the auto adjust so thats probably the reason. I am using Brother Derek's pace of race at 9f of 148 as the "par time" the others are adjusted against. Real simple like.

This is just a fun post for me and I am HOPING that VERY experienced users of Energy! will chime in with their readouts. I wanna weigh my progress with this software against expert users Dap. I am dead serious.

I have fire inside me to learn.

Rich

Synergism II Cont:
 

Looking at the medium E% Sinister looks too high. Other opinions welcome!

Dap

I basically see the same thing with Warrior

NO sustained
NO late energy

etc etc

ok

that would be suspect at 8.0 fulongs let alone 10

Energy! Dudes
 

Those VERY proficient in THIS software:

Come in here and post PLEASE.

I have a "yearn to learn" :)

"Vegas" dude
"West Coast" dudes
"Mid West dudes"

Come on in - Lurking is boring and I submit detrimental to healthy living :)


Richie
"One has to give to receive" - Frank Pizzicara - 1966

Energy Readouts
 

First I ran the horses through PHASE1 to get a feel for the relative abilities of the horses. Rounded off for TPR

Brother Derek 87/95 183
Lawyer Ron 91/79 170
Barbaro 86/91 177
Bob and John 90/79 169
Sinister Minister 95/85 180
A.P. Warrior 86/92 178
Sweetnorthernsaint 80/98 178
Sharp Humor 87/90 177
Steppenwolfer 85/82 167
Point Determined 84/96 179

I used TPR as prescribed in the Sartin, Schmidt, Hambleton book adjusting up or down from an average variant of 17 dividing by 2 than putting .60 adjustment for EPR and .40 adjustment for LPR. Initially I entered these horses in the Energy Generator and scratched by TOTAL ENERGY and also considered the TPR ratings above. I did not project and used all 9 furlong lines for my eventual contenders.

Energy Screen 1
 

I did look at the horses using the alternate and manual adjustment. I decided to stay with the automatic adjustment here. Also I did a visual ESP for the horses in the race.

Energy Screen 2
 

ENergy Screens Automatically Adjusted

Energy Screen 3
 

Looks like the race VARIEGATE's early. Even though Sinister Minister has a 0.000 Emuv his F2 is deficient and he is also highest in UXR. I am pretty sure their will be plenty of pace up front with Barbaro, and Sharp Humor in the race.

Energy Screen 4
 

The sort screen. The paragon A horses are Sinister Minister and Brother Derek. Paragon A is your early horses. The Paragon B horses are Brother Derek and Point Determined. These are your more sustained horses. The one thing I look for here is the 0.00 Muv horse that is deficient in the other rankings. Sinister Minister although 1 in EP is 3-5-5-5-4 in the other rankings.
Sinister Minister is only 4th ranked in FX. This indicates to me that the change variegate is in order.

Energy Screen 5
 

I am going to DELETE the Muv for Sinister Minister.

Energy Screen 6
 

The Variegate is now sustained.

Energy Screen 7
 

Brother Derek joins Sinister Minister as the 0.00 Muv horse. He is number 2 paragon A number 1 pargon B. His overall rankings are superior to Sinister Minister.

Energy Screen 8
 

The EXDC MATCH-Up. I will be looking at the Late Exdc Match-Up for my win contenders. Sinister Minister which has 0.00 deficiencies in both the first and second columns would be my counter energy horse. He is also the Energizer. My win contenders would be Brother Derek and/or Sweetnorthernsaint/Point Determined. If I believe the pace falls apart up front I would consider using Brother Derek, Sweetnorhernssaint, Point Given and although I eventually scratched him A.P. Warrior in a 4 horse trifecta box. The reason I am saying this is that A.P. Warrior came up as the DPH in Thoromation.

Thoromation Screen Kentucky Derby
 

I ran the same horses through THOROMATION, but kept A.P. Warrior in for 6 horses. THOROMATION is pretty much ENERGY! with additional graphics. The numerical readouts are the same in many of the readouts. Anyhow in THOROMATION and the Pre-Play Screens the order of finish is.
THOROMATION: Brother Derek, A.P. Warrior, and Sinister Minister.
EXDC Pre-Play: Sinister Minister, Brother Derek, and Barbaro.
Sp Pre-Play: Sweetnorthernsaint, Point Determined, and Brother Derek.
The DPH (Designated place horse or designated in-the-money horse that Doc Sartin later described it) is A.P. Warrior.

I know the horses run the race, but I thought it interesting that Bob Baffert essentially said that Sinister Minister cannot be rated, and Dale Romans said that Sharp Humor is going out wingin'.

Kentucky Derby Preliminary
 

Richie:

The attached sheet represents the contenders I considered wrth plottingwith respect to a represnetitive race of either 8.5 (1 1/16th mile0 or 9.0 (1 1/8th miles) of which I took each horse's final time and subtracted the finish time from the mile and multiplied the number times four in the instance the race was 8.5 furlongs or multiplied it times 2 if the race was 9.0 furlongs. The end result was to get a representitive time for 1 1/4 miles of which the sheet shows. I then took each horses internal fractions from one call to the next and subrtracted it to get each horses internal times. Thus the attached spreadsheet.

I would be curious to hear what you and others thinnk of the data presented.

Interestingly the pace line for Cause to Believe was not from a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race which is one of Doc's rules for selecting the Derby Contender. I used the $100K race for hime. Everyone else listed is from a Grade !1 or Grade 2 race.

Interested in hearing your comments!

Also based on the previosu information with regards to using only horse what won or placed in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race would the following horses only be considered and the rest eliminated:
Brother Derek
Lawyer Ron
Barbaro
Bob and John
Sinister MinisterSteppenwolfer
Keyed Entry
Showing up
Point Determined
Like Now
Storm Treasure
Jazil
Seaside Retreat
AP Warrior
Sweetnorthenrsaint
Sharp Humor
Mister Triester
Sacred Light
That makes a total of 17 horses who qualify per Doc's rule.

Any comments?

If you have the time I would recommend that you go to Calracing.com and watch the Santa Anita Derby video. It's free. One thing I think you will get out of watching is that cetain horses in the race to me were just ridden out without the jockey pushing their horse harder. I call it saving a little horse for the next time. Just my opinion.

another source
 

Before you start lookibg over the derby hoepfuls go to Dr. Romans' site first: http://www.chef-de-race.com/2006_der...parameters.htm


SOME will surprise you i.e. Brother Derek

Thank you moderator for the screenhunter. I learn something new every day.
I have used Synergism for years. Here is my Derby.

All pacelines are taken from the last race with the tandem method applied.

I am very surprised nobody gets Jazil in the readouts.This is an extremely live longshot who will begin to make his move in the 2nd fraction while the pace is collapsing up front. The faster they go the harder he is coming. Look at the 7f race he showed last year as a 2 year old against a 45 half. This is a totally legitimate closer. This is not a strictly 3rd fraction horse. Watch for him.

Brother Derek and Barbaro are not in the top 3 SP horses and are eliminated for win consideration.

Sweetnorthernsaint and Jazil are the win bets looking at the readouts.

Point Determined is the 3rd horse to be used in exacta box.

Here are my 3 screen shots

good luck to everyone and may all the horses return healthy.

my second screen shot

my third screen shot

Hey Dap,

that looks sharp man. Brings back a lot of memories of how I used to lay stuff out on the form back in the TPR days of the early 90's.

looks really good Bobby!

Richie

Welcome
 

First off Welcome to Binder's site.

I am curious how you and Dap could have such vastly different readouts using the same software and same pacelines. In reading both your posts it is clear you both are LONG TIME users of Synergism. This racing really is an amazing thing.

I see Houndog's readouts with Energy! and they are very similar to mine.Being a novice I am greatly encouraged.The point being the readouts are very similar using the SAME pacelines.

Question to both you and Dap if I may. How do you deal with adjustments with that program? I know someone that uses it also and he just enters the raw pacelines. any feedback on what you guys do would be great.he also is a long time user and fairly proficient with it.

Richie

[QUOTE=Forego]Thank you moderator for the screenhunter. I learn something new every day.
I have used Synergism for years. Here is my Derby.

All pacelines are taken from the last race with the tandem method applied.

I am very surprised nobody gets Jazil in the readouts.This is an extremely live longshot who will begin to make his move in the 2nd fraction while the pace is collapsing up front. The faster they go the harder he is coming. Look at the 7f race he showed last year as a 2 year old against a 45 half. This is a totally legitimate closer. This is not a strictly 3rd fraction horse. Watch for him.

Brother Derek and Barbaro are not in the top 3 SP horses and are eliminated for win consideration.

Sweetnorthernsaint and Jazil are the win bets looking at the readouts.

Point Determined is the 3rd horse to be used in exacta box.

Here are my 3 screen shots

I am very surprised nobody gets Jazil in the readouts.This is an extremely live longshot who will begin to make his move in the 2nd fraction while the pace is collapsing up front. The faster they go the harder he is coming. Look at the 7f race he showed last year as a 2 year old against a 45 half. This is a totally legitimate closer. This is not a strictly 3rd fraction horse.



My thoughts:
It would be hard for me to consider any horse to win or place in the Ketucky Derby with only a maiden win. Jazil record is 6-1-3-0. The Trainer tried him once in a N1X $33k and he ran second. I respect your handicapping but how could one consider Jazil to run in any of the top three finishing posions with only a Maiden win?

In my opinion he closed in the slop to run second. It appears to me that this horse is being rushed. His breeding says he would run well on the slop. But his record on a fast track is still with just a maiden win. If you like him by all means please don't let me talk you off this horse. Again this is just my opinion.

Dap!

Richie:

The way I work Synergism is that in this case I would handicap the entires based on the track record of 9.0 furlongs and thn I would add up to five pace lines for the 9.0 furlongs with the entrants. For example I would use the following:

Track Record 1:46.4
Pace line: Brother Derek 1:11.1 1:48.0
Pace line: Bob and John: 112.0 1:49.0
Pace line: Sinister Minister: 1:09.4 1:48.4
Pace Line Barbaro 1:11.0 `:49.0
Pace line Sweetnorthernsaint 1:13.0 1:49.4

Since the program only allows five pace line to comapre the entrants against, these are the ones I would use.

The interesting part comes in that when I input AP Warrior, Bluegrass Cat,Steppinwolfer and Cause to Beleive, I input their 8.5 furlong race line. The software alogorythms of Synergism looks at the shorter distance and applies it to the handicapped distance and provides I guess what you would say is a estimated adjusted time to fit the longer distance profile. Mush the same when one is handicapping a 7.0 furlong race and several of the contenders pace lines are for 6.0 furlongs or vise versa.

I have been doing is this way for years and I will admit that when I used the program diligently, it worked.

As far as adjustments for a Grade 1 or a Grade 2 race f this caliber I don't make any adjustments as it is the best against the best.

The only time I make adjustments with Synergism is when I am handicapping lower level claiming races and a horse is stepping up in class off a win or competities race and I want the program to realizr that the race inpuutted was for a level with a adjustment between -.15 ~ -.45

I rarely adjust downward as if the horse is dropping his raw numbers better be good enough to win or why else is he/she dropping.

On a more serious note, I have not yet seen anyone here thus far apply Doc's established rules for establishing contenders for the Kentucky derby. It was posted and I thought it to be very helpful in narrowing down the potential filed of 27 horses to less than 10 contenders right now. Again this is what Doc said was the proven formula!

Dap!

Synergism II Update
 

Richies:

I went back and updated my Synergism readouts for all to see based upon what I said in how I go about inputtin contenders. Please note on the first Screenshot I have listed the various times dor the handicapped distance of 9.0 furlongs:

Second Screenshot
 

Here is the second screenshot:

Final screenshot
 

One key element here is that of one goes back and checks the med E% they would find the winning range is around 68.50 ~ 68.90. Only one contender shows a med E% in that range.

See for your self: