FPLR - Evangeline Downs - Race 5 - Saturday 7/30/16
 

OK here is one of the races Mark is interested in. It is tonight's 5th race from EVD - Post time looks like 8:35 here on the East Coast.

Here are the entries and other info from the "dashboard' screen

Here are the Tandems from the race:

The field -

The field-

What is the projected pace?
Who is FPLR?
Do tandems help you in any way with contender selection?
Who is Early?
Who is OTE?
Are there runners who can run BOTH styles?
What are the POWER LINES for the runners (contenders)?
How are you wagering?
1 horse?
2 horses?
best value bet?
Best E +Best OTE?
Best value bet of each of the 2 categories?
did the bets come to you quickly? was it very hard for you to work the race?
Richie

My take
 

This is a race loaded with horses that have shown to run their best pushing hard for the lead. There are also two long layoff horses #8 and #10, off 274 day and 289 days respectively that I made EPS. That's 1 E and 4 EPs. Richie showed a spot play in the Hat Check Blog that suggested you have to account for each of the early horses at the 1st call if you variegate the race OTE which I have done. So I am looking for a horse that will be in at least 5th position at the 1st call. My FPLR horse is #9 at 22.4 -46.2 from his last race. But he now has to step up to NW-3L. I also note the lay off horse #10 who shows a 21.9 - 46.1 from his POWER LINE. The #4's POWER LINE shows a 2nd Call of 45.8, 1/2 length back.
I don't have tremendous confidence in my handicapping of this race as these are pretty cheap, unreliable horses. But my feeling is that there will be 5 horses charging out for the lead and if the #10 shakes free early as fresh horses often do, they are going to be running on fumes as they turn for home. One run late horses have the opportunity to swoop by in the shadow of the wire and that is either the #3 or the #6. The #3 would be my horse because he moves first but his paceline is so dang slow. The #6 makes a POWER MOVE 1C -2C gaining 3 positions and over 4 lengths off a 45.9 second call. Even though I would like to see some activity on the track since its last race, this is my horse. I might take a #1, #3, #6 exacta box as a saver.Attachment 40917

I just checked yesterday's charts for EVD. The card started with the track condition "Wet fast sealed" and was later upgraded to fast. Everything was off turf and the conditions today are shown as fast and off turf with 30% chance of a thunderstorm.

Live streaming video is at:
http://www.evdracing.com/at-the-wire...d-race-replays

I worked this without doing my regular and only paper and pen wit what was posted above. The FPLR could be either the 5 or the 9 as their both really close, take your pick. Because of the distance and NW3-L for $5,000 it appears to be a lot of cheap speed in this race and believe it sets up for a closer such as the #6. In such a race an EP or a P can be the other closer. I would bet at least two horses in this race as form is really unknown with these types.
I used lines: #1 L 2 runs a good race bad race, probably due a good one
# 2 L 4 Better on turf, wrong footing and poor form, non- contender
# 3 L 1 Last was best of its last 6 races, reason unknown with no apparent information given.On improve & may run back to a better race of L7. Unknown factor with M/L of 15-1. Not betting but if I was it would be worth a save bet for a $1 or 2 in an ugly race.
# 4 L 2
# 5 L 3 Last best in last 6 races and on improve
# 6 L 2 Cut back in distance favorable
# 7 L 3
# 8 L 2 Cut back in distance favorable
# 9 L 1
#10 L 3
I only used what was put up here, no trainer stats available for layoff horses. My final two are the # 6 at 8-1 and # 8 at 3-1. Without doing my norm I'll be passing betting and here only for the exercise.
Best of luck,
Mitch 44

Cant explain as I am heading out the door but I would go with 7 going back to his race 3 back

I feel last race was a tightner as he made a more from the 1st to 2nd call

8 & 7 split 60:40 as per.

Can't see this one going early & agree with Jeff on the 7. Last race for me was a tightener.
Sorry for lack of explanation, v.busy with family right now!

I worked this race and have the 8-9-10 as my final three contenders and would play these three in an exacta box.
If the 9 horse goes off any where near its morning line I would bet it across the board.
Rmath

I think the FPLR horse is the 9.
I decided to use the 4/29 race at this track and this distance for the pace 22.4 46.3 59.5 1:06.3. The FPLR horse comes out of this tandem.

I don't see much speed in this race and I think it will run close to the pace. Here's how I break it down.

1: OTE at this pace
2: OUT
3: Late. OUT
4: OTE at this pace
5: OUT
6: OUT
7: Early. Not a fighter. Contender.
8: Slow. OUT.
9: Early Fighter. Definitely a contender.
10: To paraphrase Mark in other places, not a horse anymore.

I would single the 9 at a morning line price of 45:1. I'd also bet to place on the 9 at that price. If I were a two horse bettor which I'm not, I'd play the 4 as an OTE horse.

Good luck.

I agree on the 9. There are 5 horses here that are nominally 'E's, but the 4 and 7 look to be down in their form cycles, and the 10 hasn't raced in 280 days and isn't the horse it used to be.

None of the OTEs look to be able to seriously press the pace. That leaves the 9 and the 1. With good odds, I bet them both, otherwise pass the race.

9 horse has 2 running styles E and presser.

Doesn't need the lead to win.

9-7-10

Won by the 8 then the 3 and 2 at $12.20

Dave nice call on the 8 to win right on top

Post Mortem
 

The #10 killed all the other speed as they went 22 1st fraction.
The winner who I made an EP and therefore threw out when I variegated OTE and due to the layoff:Attachment 40918

For whatever reason I did not see the 6th line back, 427 days ago: A win at the track and distance while running Sustained. And he did it off a 336 day layoff.
I can't claim that I was rushed or really have any excuse other than I missed it and lost the race.

I expected a horse to run down the center of the track and win, I just didn't have the right one. The #3 did finish second and paid over $25 to place. But stubbornly refused to change my win/place bet on the #6 when he had a last minute jock switch.
Congratulations to the winners and winning exacta betters!!!

Nice job by Dave and Mitch who also pointed to the 3 as a saver bet. Rich Mathie also had the winner listed.
Tim

This was my final screen, though I did not post it. It looked to me that the 8 had pressed several times and did not get close to the lead until the pace was very slow. It only happened once, so I made this horse a P. I kept the 1 to reinforce my pace idea. The 8 ran closest to the lead in my view without needing it. The stretch call position and time did it for me vs. the others.

Thanks Lads,

Obviously enjoyed watching this race, even if I did have to stay up to approaching 2:00am to watch it!

I should have played this race and put more time into and do what I normally do. I just considered it another race and my real focus as a formal paratrooper was watching this sky diver jump from 25,000 feet, without a parachute and land into a net going 120 MPH .WOW!!! Talk about some ba--s. This came on at 8:00pm and he jumped at about 8:40 about the time of the race.

Oh well I was quickly over it after seeing the results. You can't let this stuff live in your mind. Even when playing back to back races , if you do it'll effect your next race. I'll get another to make up for it. Onward and upward.
Mitch44

The EVD website has replays too! :)

EVA FPLR Race #5
 

I am late to the party, did not get to this race until today. After I finish my write up will view chart. Well I am still a STUDENT learning this game! I do not play long layoff. Congrats to all who caught the winner.

Waiting on the Master to share his taught. Thanks Rich!

1. What is the Projected Pace: #2 - 22.9 - 46.8

2. who is FPLR: #2

3. Do Tandems help you in any way with Contenders selections: YES

4. Who is Early: #1-4-5-7-9-10

5. Who is OTE: #2-3-6-8

6. Are they runner who can run both styles? YES - 1-2-7-8-9

7. What are the poser line of the contenders: 6 Power Line (PL) #2, 7 PL #3 and 9 PL #1

8. How are you wagering - 2 Horse win

9. Best value bet #9

10. Best Early 9, Best OTE 6

11. Best Value bet of each of the 2 categories: 9 - 6

12. Did the bet come to you quickly? YES. Was is very hard to work this race? NO

WIN 9-6

Looking back the winner was in my OTE Selection

I am curious
 

Why was EVD5 used as an example for application of FPLR? Basically if you can project a pace from Early runners you go from there. There are at least two Earlies 9,10 here which sets up a 22+ and 45+ pace. That would be your starting point.

However if you have no definite early horses than you look at FPLR. And of course you always look at FPLR for something unusual like an early-typish horse that gains positions and lengths through the first two calls. 9 led but did not gain lengths or positions through the first two calls. What does FPLR do for you here?

Why would Mark choose a race in which he had so little confidence. One of the Earlies (the 10) was off a long layoff. So you are guessing as to whether he is the same horse and you are hoping that he supplies some early tension. Turns out he did. At the projected pace.


Attachment 40948


In either case the 8 was un-gettable with the Matchup. I mean look at him. He has never been competitive against the projected pace.


Attachment 40949


I am not surprised that Mark did not have him. He is a matcher. Other OTE's looked better. Some guys had him. There are other ways and things that get you to the 8.....And of course you can point out this and that as reasons that the 8 took it after the race.

This was a tough race with too many questions. I don't see how it was supposed to illustrate the FPLR concept and I don't see this as being a race that Matching horses would get as a winner.

Pook

I tend to agree. As I redline the hell out of this race, the one thing that stands out for me is that the speed figures (on average) that this horse earned as a 3 year old in 2015 are competitive or superior to those speed figures earn by the rest of the field in 2016. Horses normally improve from their 3 year to their 4 year old campaign, so if one could project this horse to improve, from a speed figure perspective, he would be superior.

The lay off is problematic and I don't know what kind of works this horse had coming off the long layoff. When you consider that the jockey and the trainer are winless at the meet, it appears the connections bet this horse down to 5-1. IMO, this is not the type of horse the public would back.

The horses M/L was 3-1 so going off at 5-1 it wasn't bet down. Fans really bet any top 3 pick on the program. As a 4 year old he does have some upside as compared to many of the older horses in this race. This horse easily would project to be in the top 3. One must be careful to weigh too heavily on SR and time. Its like asking a clm. horse that runs a 45 110 to beat a stake horse that runs 45 111.0. I believe even with the matchup the race was gettable.
mitch44

It's called Handicapping...
 

Over the years I have found EVD the source of exceptional mutuels. One of the reasons is that there are a lot of private training facilities all over the area. Another is that there are many small barns with a few horses and trainers and owners bet to supplement their purse winnings. A few years ago when I was just getting my feet wet, all I did was play horses off their POWER LINES and I doubled my bankroll.
So that is why I play the horses, to augment my income and have fun. I am not like most of you in that I view layoffs particularly the 200+ day variety as POSITIVE. Who is going to pay $300 -$500 bucks a month to keep a horse on the farm? Plus Vet bills and stall and trainer fees to bring the horse back to the track? Are you going to do it if the horse has no potential when he returns to racing? I think not!!
Now tell me, when do horses pay good to great mutuels? I could name several but one for sure is off a layoff or one or two races off the layoff. These trainers and owners have to pay all those bills and they aren't going to invest all that money for a $6.00 winner. The confidence the connections had to thump the #8 horse down to 5/1 was proven by his huge win!!! Jim Bradshaw urged, pleaded and argued with people to use all 10 pp lines. I made the cardinal mistake of getting locked into a horse #6 and a little less #3 and I missed the #8's layoff return line off a 300+ day layoff where he won for fun. That was well over a year ago 400 and something days and if you just look at the speed figures, you can see in the interim he improved. Now he is a fully mature 4 year old, I don't know his birth month but if he is like many and born in March or April, he is a real 4 year old. So 1). did the horse win his first lifetime start or did he win off a similar layoff? 2) Did he exhibit the Running style which would be required by today's Match Up? YES -YES.
I made the #9 an E and the #2, #4, #10 and unfortunately the #8 EPs. If you followed the Hat Check blog Richie talked and gave numerous examples of what he called 3 Matching Earlies spot play. On several occasions he explained what he looks for depending on the number of Earlies. You have to account for their positions at the 1st Call!!! So I was looking for a horse that was at best in 6th position at the 1st Call. That's why I ended up on the #3 and #6 they were 7th and 9th at the 1st call. But subsequently when I had lost the race I went back and looked at the #8. Off his second lifetime start, off a 336 day layoff he was 6th at the 1st call and ran sustained for nearly a 2 length win. Now when you look at the #10. In 4 of his 5 lifetime starts he breaks #1. In his first lifetime start he runs 21.9 -46.1 in his 3rd he runs 2 by 1/2 length against a 21.8 -45.5 and wins. In his last start off a 196 day layoff in the slop at a statebred NW-3L Allowance, he breaks last and runs up the track. Doc Sartin always talked about the "preponderance of evidence". I don't know how anyone can look at this horse and think for a second that this is not the fastest Early horse in the field and 2 to 3/5ths of a second faster than anyone else. This is what made the race interesting to me. This horse who had never won over 5f would gut the other earlies as they chased him but the layoff and potential distance limitations convinced me that the race would run OTE. That meant that there was a better than average potential for a price and that's why I handicap. I will not bet horses less than 5/1 to win.
Handicapping is all about perceived risk-reward. You experience is what levels the playing field. You had to make a number of decisions in this race mostly around layoffs but that is the essence of handicapping. The Match Up is not so narrow a methodology that it cannot accept these situations. One of the main tenets is Variegation. If you didn't call the race OTE you had no chance. When you do you have to find the running style that is advantaged. There were 3 S horses in the race and 2 ran first and second. The other my bet walked out of the gate after his jock refused to ride him requiring a last minute jock change. I guess what I am trying to say is that you can't get caught up in the perfect scenario. This is a typical race at EVD but it was clear that there was an imbalance of early runners with some serious flaws.

BTW, I bet this race #6 win/place and an exacta box #1, #3 and #6. Not a prime bet but a substantial one.
My handicapping partner who mostly plays exotics had the #8-#3-#1 twice with $.50 cent trifectas. He took over $1800 out of the race!

Good Point, what kind of works did he have?

Another good point - I missed that.

I had no idea delayjf as it wasn't posted and only used what was available.
mitch44

Number 8 workouts
 

Here is an attachment with the workouts for the 8 (hopefully, not sure if it worked).

Try again!
 

Hopefully this time

When the money is down I had to watch live! I'm no good at sleeping when waiting for a result!!

Bet down
 

At one point in the betting the #8 horse got up to 9/1 -10/1. Late money knocked him down to 5/1. However, it is interesting to see that the morning line maker had this horse at 3/1. Possibly the layoff didn't bother him as he or she is used to such layoffs.

I made the horse an EP off that second line. I didn't work those lines from the bottom up as is my normal practice. I use Bradshaw's designations at 1st call:
EP: 2nd or 3rd within 1/2 length
P: 2nd or 3rd within 2 or 3 lengths
SP: 4th or 5th behind the Pressers
S: 6th and further back.

There is a small contradiction in his Early designation as this connotes in the lead. However, I have seen him describe a horse that is usually in the lead at the 1st call but on at least one occasion 2nd by a length. My take is that it is about Energy Exertion. And a normally Early horse that runs from the 2nd position occasionally is still exerting his energy Early.

Workouts: I really don't pay much attention to works at EVD or DeD as there are so many private facilities where their work goes unpublished. I believe this is a circuit that requires a public workout if the horse hasn't run in 60 days. You will see some of the slowest works imaginable to fulfill this requirement. These old boys don't want to tip their hand. But the #8 had 3 published works prior to this start and if you look further back that is the same pattern he had prior to his previous win off the 336 day layoff.

The workouts posted now by DaveEdwards are or would have been very helpful to this race analysis. The workout for 3F on 24 May reality jumps off the page at you. The 95 rating is excellent, the rank of first of 4 work outs also but for me the time especially would cinch it. 36:1 indicates both condition and soundness so the layoff becomes a mute point. The "Doc" always said that a horse that works in 12 seconds or so is both sound and in form. He said 12 sec. per furlong was 55:00 feet per second and near racing speed. Not sure if that was at a seminar or written somewhere.

Additionally some horses can be trained up to a race( higher class horses) and some can't stand the rigors of training(cheap ones) and must be raced into shape. Another indication of layoff horses is if they ever ran a good prior race after a layoff as Mark pointed out. It indicated this horse could be trained up to a race. Also a horse that is dropping in class after a layoff is a good sign to include high class horses as many need an actual race to reach peak form. They just get more out of a race through the competition of the race itself than training and are lazy in the mornings.

Mitch44

Fplr
 

Pook,
Richie offered to give me some assistance with my Matching skills and not wanting to be too intrusive into his very busy life I sent him 4 or 5 races of which the EVD 5 race was one. My primary criteria was a field with 8 or more betting interests. He liked this race because it had a very clear FPLR horse the #9 horse. As published the FPLR concept is if you can find this horse in a race and that becomes your pace of the race. If after handicapping the race, he meets the variegation and no one can "knock him off", he is your horse. Well, it didn't take too much time to see that the #9 had only won with an open lead at the 1st call and that he was not going to get it today. There were 4 horses that wanted the lead at the first call or shortly thereafter. This was going to be a cavalry charge. We found the #10 with a substantially better 1st fraction, 21.9 and the #4, with a better 2nd call 45.8, I used his 10th line. So with those two times you could see that a 21.9 -45.8 pace was within reason. So you toss the #9 and in my view you toss all the Es and EPs. In my reading I saw something that Jim Bradshaw had said, Pressers in a field like this that want to lay pretty close get sucked into that speed duel too. So in my view the E, EPs and Ps were going to be looking for a place to lie-down turning for home and a one run S type would most likely run down the center of the track and blow by everyone.
This is one of the main reasons why you have to look at all the horses' pacelines. These are the lines I used in this race:
Attachment 40951
If you stick to the best of the last 3 lines comparable you can't see how the horses Match Up. I used POWER LINES. So you see the #10 horse roar out to a good lead and the #4 catching him and passing him at the 2nd call. You see that the other earlies and pressers can handle this pace. So the race will run OTE and be won by a horse who has position 6 at the 1st call. That is the advanced Match Up as Richie P explained it while being personally taught by the Master, Jim Bradshaw!
Now if you plug in the 6th line for the #8 and notice all the other good things about him he lies 6th and of your final contenders, the 3 S horses, he will be closest to the leader at the 1st Call. He becomes an S horse or demonstrates he can run and win as an S horse and is no longer tossed as being apart of the Early brigade!!
If that is not the Match Up then I don't know what is!

Not Exactly the Match Up but
 

I just couldn't get away from the 3F fps of the 8. If this was close enough coming into the stretch there was only going to be one result.

As Dick Schmidt has previous said, beware the horse with a strong enough 3F to be able to overcome it's early pace deficiencies.

1, 9 & 10 were pretty much immediate throw-outs for me as per what has been said already. There was definitely enough evidence for these three to be thrown. OTE into matching earlies, & so agree with Mark, this was a matchers race.

Goodnight all!

Thank You Mark
 

Mark
I felt so bad for you. Your 6 horse was acting up, The jockey refused the ride,
They had to take it back to get a last minute jockey to ride. There was a long delay, I wonder if the horse sensed this was unusual. I wonder if ther was extra tension on the part of the connections, This all was using the 6 horses energy , They finally got the 6 back to the gate but now the 6 was freaking
and would not load into the gate - more wasted energy from being upset,

The 6 walked out of the gate so it was all over ..

It was a interesting race
Thanks
Bill

Sar
 

Hi Mitch

The workout pattern about Doc's guideline of 55 FPS or 12 seconds per furlong
is mentioned in PACE MAKES THE RACE page 138 "The Numbers Game"

GS
Bill

Bill,
I've had that happen before on a number of occasions and cancelled my bet. Mostly they run crappy but I have also had them run well and pay well. I am stubborn enough now that I let it ride. What really pissed me off is that I missed that #8 horse. No excuse, sloppy handicapping. I think the layoff and his most recent win as an EP led to me discounting him without really looking him over. I look for horses with deep POWER LINES as a rule so missing that win running Sustained in almost the exact same circumstances is unacceptable to me. Hurts a little less that he wasn't 15/1.
I have the most difficulty when I don't have a line to go back to. Particularly with 2nd or 3rd off a significant layoff. I haven't learned to take pieces of lines and put them together the way "The Hat" did. But I have only been working at this for 3 1/2 years. Thanks for the emotional support. As I mentioned before my handicapping buddy up in Berkeley who I have played the horses with for about 20 years had that $.50cent trifecta twice and if I may say so, he included the #3 off of my analysis. He takes $1800 out of the race and I lose my money.