Del Mar - Sunday -8/14 - Race 6
 

Here is today's 6th from DMR going 8f on the Turf. I have projected the pace (1c-2c) from 2 on the lead runners from the last race. I punched in the times and you will see the lines that "light up" on the pp's posted :)

See if it interests you, all are welcome to chime in.

Also including the workout tab for each runner,couple of layoff guys coming back to the races.

cont

next

Seems to be a lot of speed in this race which I believe would set it up for a off the pace horse

I would go with the 4 , you projected a 110.8 for the second call and last race this horse was closing nicely off a 109.8.

It would not surprise me if it ran 2nd as it seems to do so quite often

Zinvor, although winning last race on the lead has proven to have a versatile running style and does not need the lead to win.

With a handful of E/EP in the race the 10 reflected star may be able to revers the tandem on Zinvor with Fritz Johansen rounding out the tri.

Continued Success!

Paul Link
Los Angeles, CA

"Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority it's time to pause and reflect"

Tough, tough race...
 

What a great group of horses with some quirks: New geldings, stretch outs and lightly races foreign horses.
Here we go:
Attachment 41061
Attachment 41062
Attachment 41063
Although he looks a little cheap I will take the #10 win/place. Box the #5, #7 and #10 if there is a likelihood of making some money!

Richie,

Hope you will put up your thoughts

Thoughts: Lots of unknown factors, actually too many for serious $ reduce bets and sets up for SP or S, demand price to compensate for unk. factors.

#3 & 9 are both stretching out with the #9 the best of the two & they can rate however I
think in this field they'll have too much to overcome and make them both non-contenders-toss
the #2 seems to run a good race bad race- toss non contender
# 4 only two US starts & two Lasix contender, L1
# 5 contender L4
# 6 contender cuts back in dis. helpful, L 4
# 7 contender last best & on improve L 1
# 8 1st time Gelding unknown factor, probably a NTL which may get it but will be caught at some point in race non-contender toss
# 10 last was best, has to prove can run two big in a row- contender L1
# 11 NTL & won't get it non-contender toss
# 12 switches back to turf, improving horse, B off, contender L 3
A lot of speed with several NTL in here which sets it up for a off the pace horse. I'll go with the 6 & 12 to upset the 7,10 & 5

Also need a price here to compensate for the wide open affair and should get it with the 6 & 12.ex. 6& 12 over the 7&5 , 5 & 7 over 6 & 12 No P3 as 7th race is another tough race with little insight, DD 5th race 2 & 4 with 6 12 & 7
Good skill,
Mitch44

I'll
 

Take a flyer with the 9 and 4


Bob

i will consider the :10: it worked 2 times within 21 days off

the 5 has 9/20 starts wins in this race of nw1

#5 10 wins 21 starts

Here is the result chart and thanx to all who looked in!

The 5 wired them holding off the 7, looks like Mark has the exacta in his box for $35.60 if he pulled the trigger.

The reason I put the race up was the #7. When he was one of the 2 runners who I projected the on the lead pace from (also fighting at the 1c) and then saw line 6 running 5-4-2-2 positioning and line 8 running 4-5-1-1 positioning against similar paces that was my horse.

Didnt think he could lose, he did! :)

off to work, have a great day everyone.
Richie

Overlooked another one
 

These were my final contenders. I use RDSS a little differently. I will use the Win Contender's section for E and EP. The Secondary or ITM Contender section for P and SP and the Non-Contender section for S horses when I initially go through the horses. It helps me to keep in mind where these horses want to be. As I start eliminating horses I will drop those into Non-Contender and elevate any S horse to ITM that seems appropriate. In the final screen which I posted before the race these were my final contenders grouped together as I felt the race would run OTE:
Attachment 41074
I kept the #8 because he had been gelded since his last start and felt that he may run a little better without his nuts banging the inside of his thighs. Like Richie I saw the #5 and the #7 had run well from slightly off the pace even though could go to the lead. However, with the sprinters stretching out I didn't think they would attempt the lead. Well, I was wrong.
Richie published a spot play in the Hat Check Blog long ago called 3 Matching Earlies. I didn't know whether the two Es and EP were matching but I thought one would get the lead and the other two would fight him for it. In this spot play and always in the Match Up you have to account for these horses at the 1st Call. There was an EP and 2 Es so were should look for the winner in our final contenders that could run from the 4th position. Look at my final contenders above. Who would be running from the 4th position at the 1st Call? It is true that the #7 had a couple of race where he won from the 4th position, but when you use those lines on the Segment screen they come up slow and from the horse's pps he has really improved in his last few races so I kept him in off his gate to wire win.

Now the #5 took the lead and took them all the way around winning by a half length over the #7 but we have to handicap from the pps. The line I used showed the horse at the 4th position at the 1st Call but he also made two distinct moves in that race and it was fast.
Unfortunately, I didn't notice this until after the race. I have a tendency to lock in on a horse and miss stuff as a result.
I lost my win and place bets but I got a little back on the exacta. However, more encouraging is that my paceline selection and contender recognition is improving. It didn't put money in my pocket but I had the trifecta in my top 4 selections. That builds confidence!

This was the Original screen
 

Here is the screen I was referring to:
Attachment 41075