Configure Settings and Happy New Year to all.
 

My personal goal in 2017 is to become the absolute best handicapper I can be; and with this as the goal, I ask you all 2 questions:

1) What is the best configuration setting?

2) What is the best Paceline Selection Strategy?

Happy New Year to All, and may all of your bets CASH!!

Jon Lee

Hi Jon and Happy New Year to you. In answer to your questions I stay with the default configuration setting and use the best of the last 3 preceptor rating as my paceline selection. I will however change the ones I do not concur with.
Tim G

Oaklawn
 

John call me when I return from helping my sister with her hip operation and we will look after Oaklawn. I e-mailed you about that.

I work evenings at the standardbreds Monday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

THE REAL TRICK in this game is NOT the evaluation of the field but the way you take advantage of the crowd's ignorance as regards it, aka BETTING properly..we can play Oaklawn together, a real nice track with good payouts.

Phase 1
 

Happy New Year

I use the default setting, but validator mode,

My pace line selection method= Last Line

Last line, evaluate every horse, then either stay with the last line, or make changes if last line is not comparable,

I next evaluate all lines for running style, and look at the horses three highest TPR lines,
I Select a recent line within the last 3 or maybe four that is representative of the horse ability of EPR LPR and Early Late stick , I go to the energy screen and check %med and energy running styles for conformation based on my model and profile,

This method works well for me at So Cal I only seriously wager Del Mar and Santa Anita so the DTV is not much of an issue .

Happy new year
Bill

arbitrarty
 

just blindly using the last line guarantees an inaccurate assessment of a horse's overall ability: sample error at its worst.

You are looking at that horse's adaptation to the ONE specific pace and TRIP (a huge variable) that the horse encountered ONE day.

I don't think anyone is advocating to blindly use the last line. The last line is important though, Hambleton told me to always look at the last line, since there might be a hidden move or something there that doesn't jump out to the eye. Howard told me the best paceline advice he had to give was to use the last line unless you have a reason to use another. For example, the last line isn't the same distance/surface so go further back. I am by no means an expert, but I try to always look at the last line, whether I use it for my handicapping or one further back.

Hi Tim

I guess you failed to read my post I START with the last line.
I disagree with you, I feel the last line is very important, It the most recent example of a horses form and ability, I almost always move off the last line.
Always rate the last line its mentioned more then a few times in Pace Makes The Race
how important it is to evaluate every horses last line.
. The OP asked what each of us do, so That is what I did.
I am very successful.You would be more helpful to offer your answers to direct questions rather than just comment on what other who are sucessful do This is not the Tim Y methodology
Peace and love and skill to you

Bill

Happy New Year, Jon!

Well - if you ask me, use the Default settings :eek::) (that's why they're defaults). Best of Last 3 comparable distance structure and surface, and default Adjustments for DTV and use of TrackMaster Inter Track Variants.

Together with the new Rx line (in testing in RDSS V2.1) this gets you the winner in the Top 4 better than BLBL, and between 77 - 80% of the time (depending on field size, surface, FTS, etc). Then you should do due diligence about whether the chosen line is within the E/L distribution range for this distance/surface, whether there are too many other horses in the race with better CSR ratings (i.e. Top 5 win ~85%+ of all races) or other Contender qualification strategies you use (though this is sometimes a great way to zig and zag and tout yourself off 'apparently' sketchy horses with can still win (or Place). Or you can just try 100 races and see what the defaults + 'hands-off' get you, by way of valid Contenders.

THEN - as you know - you see what kind of odds you are offered for your Top 4. If you have a consistent strategy for eliminating (or hedging) the betting favourite - or confirming the favourite is legitimate, then passing or seeking value in exotics including horizontals - then, along with confirmation by the tote board analysis (Tx1, Tx2) - you're getting close ... :)

Ted

Race 3 SA Mud
 

Here is an example of how I look at the races

I am alive in the pick 3 with this $17 winner # 9

I used the last line. Its a very good TPR ( its best ever )
I would have used line 2 as its at the same 6.5 distanceand since I look at the 3 highest TPR ratings for the horse, Line 2 seems to be representative
However my Santa Anita Profile and Model is showing me that LPR is doing very well Here are the last 20+ races run at SA
LPR is doing great and EPR not so well. I have not entered todays data yet but race 1, 2 and 3 have been won by the top 3 LPRS
I used the last line because of the better LPR rating

Attachment 41996

Attachment 41998

Attachment 41997

Im alive with 2 tickets
 

Need 2 6 7 8

$1.00(12)-(1)-(7;8)
$1.00(12)-(5;7)-(4)
$1.00(10;9)-(1)-(4)
$1.00(12)-(5;7)-(7;8)
$1.00(10;9)-(1)-(7;8)
$1.00(10;9)-(5;7)-(4)
$1.00(12)-(5;7)-(2;6)
$1.00(12)-(2;3)-(7;8)
$1.00(10;9)-(1)-(2;6)
$1.00(10;9)-(2;3)-(4)
$1.00(8;6)-(1)-(7;8)
$1.00(8;6)-(5;7)-(4)
$1.00(12)-(2;3)-(2;6)
$1.00(8;6)-(1)-(2;6)
$1.00(8;6)-(2;3)-(4

Hey Bill,

You get this horse by simply entering its most recent race. With no handicapping what so ever you have a $ 17.80 winner staring right back at you.

If you allow the program to work for you and put aside what one thinks they know about handicapping you will win.

It works for me! :)

Best,

Paul Link
Los Angeles,Ca
Twitter: @sureshotlink

Thanks Tim G - Much appreciated
 

Thank Tim G.

Will Call
 

Tim - I will call you - safe travels

Bill - awesome information, thank you. See you at Del Mar for the BC.

Pick 3
 

The 8 does it
Pick 3 pays $209.50 :)

Attachment 41999

Last line
 

Hey Paul

Yes actually the highest TPR from all horses, JUST from the last line or as you say most recent race did very well yesterday.

The winner was first or second highest TPR in every race except race 1

My grid shows the last line TPR of every horse from yesterdays SA card
The winner is shaded
Attachment 42000

Nice hit Bill!! Mr. "Pick 3" :):)

Nice!!!!!
 

Job Mr. Bill.

Way to go Bill.
Tim G

Nice Betting Bill V.

Thank You
 

Mr. Pagine
Yes The BC seems so far away, but with racing, the year goes so fast.
First stops are the triple crown preps, Then my annual trip to Santa Anita for the SA Derby.
Then the big 3 races Kentucky, Pimlico and NYC Belmont
The wild ride up to Woodbine for the Queens plate
Then we move to Monmouth, I have to do a bunch of races from the Jersey shore for Brooks, Maybe to Saratoga this time
Then of course get ready to head to Parx for the Penn Derby
and then look before we know it its birthday time and the Breeders Cup in my backyard right here at Del Mar

Yea 2017 !!!!

Thanks
 

Thank you Richie, Tim and Bob

I don't usually play the pick 3 Its been only pick 4's
I got to Del Mar Just as race 1 was going off and I saw the track was muddy
I just rolled into town, My buddy told me its been raining for days.

That explains the LP bias It never rains in Socal, yes it does and when it does SA gets Late.

I watched race 1 and 2 again favor my LP horses - and or TPR
So since race 2 is the start of the pick 4 I could only do race 3, 4, 5,

The 4 in race 5 was 2/5 so I was happy to win that race and get a nice payer

Bill

Odd, as long as I have been recording biases, RAIN creates the earliest of early biases.

This baloney about the pace horse selectively tiring has NO biases in fact as ALL the horses are running over that same surface and it any tiring is the result, they are ALL subject to it.

I believe that what happens when a track is sly and then proceeds to dry out going to mdy and then good is different at each track. I don't believe that one can make a blanket statement on what running style will prevail. In my humble opinion one must know their tracks and maintain records.
Tim G

Parx ruled
 

Excellant racing
Will see later action To-day
:1:

Thumbs up, Drainage and composition and freezing are not the same across the board
SA was once again fast on Sunday and Early positional dominated, The races also were extremely formful.The three lowest morning line horses won 7 of the 9 races
The lowest morning line horse won 5 times the 2nd lowest 1 time the 3rd lowest 1time

Most recent SA Model - Profile 20 races
 

Last 20 races SA

Attachment 42010

Hey Bill,

Is your profile a mix of sprint and route races ?

Thank you,

Paul link

Last
 

Hey Paul
The last 20 races, So that would be 9 races Sunday, 9 Saturday and final 2 races
Friday ,

I have a master model - profile spreadsheet which is every race everyday.
Once I enter the race on the master, I then copy and paste to specialized spreadsheets which are broken down to distance , surface and maiden/non maiden. Eventually I can break it down to sex, age, once I have a big enough sample of a race type .

What I am showing here is from the master spreadsheet , and the most recent 20 races
All .

Bill

Should
 

I guess I should of captured the race date info on the screen shot!

The last row (bottom) is the most recent race So here that would be race 9 from Sunday
And the top row would be race 7 from Friday

Bill

SA Profile
 

Bill are the EPR LPR and Tpr rankings in your SA profile all taken from the last pace line OR do they come from the lines you choose after you get your contenders?
Thanks
Rmath

Hey first off me and my family thank you for your prayers and kindness
in the tough loss of mom.<3


Dick, What I do is, I take the numbers for my Model from the paceline I used.
For the profile I use the result charts . remember the Profile is what the track is doing, the Model is based on my handicapping records .

Here is an example of how I enter horses onto my profile and model.

Lets look at race 6 from Parx yesterday ( a race I won )
and I happen to be looking at when I saw your post,

First here is the winner, #3 Red Rocket . I used the last line, or in the spirit of this thread
I had auto selected the last line for every horse, and for this horse I stayed with the last line.

Attachment 42015

For my Parx profile - I would first check the results chart
I would enter lots of stuff but most important is the date,surface, class, sex age and track condition.
Now using the chart, I enter the size of the field, The Position at the EPR or second call and the beaten lengths at the EPR second call.

So I would enter for this race for the winner
Field 10 Pos2, 2 BL 2 1.0

Attachment 42014

Now for the model , The model is to show me how I am doing in my handicapping using Phase 1

so here I look at my TPR screen.

Attachment 42016

I enter the RANKING of the winner in EPR, LPR and TPR
from the pace line I used.
Red Rocket had a 88.5 EPR , 87.9 LPR and 176.4 TPR (I also record the e/l and %Med )

The 88.4 was the 4th best ranked the 87.9 LPR was 3rd best and the 176.4 TPR was the 5th best. So on my model I would show the winner of this race as E4 L 3 T 5

I take the EPR LPR and TPR as well as the Early Late diff and % Med and RS
from the pace line I used

Now here is an interesting thing. Lets say in a few weeks Red Rocket
is in another 6.5 distance race at Parx on a fast track, I then will enter the actual Phase 1 numbers RDSS adjusted the race from yesterday but I will bold face the numbers, Surprisingly Since RDSS has already adjusted the paceline I used , which was 5.5 furlongs to today's distanceof 6.5, The actual numbers I will eventually see, are very often very close to the paceline numbers, This is why i'm confident using the pace line numbers
on a daily basis. It is easy and eventually i get a real clear idea of the track i'm workings profile based on the pace line info.

Profile
 

Thanks Bill ,
I appreciate your taking the time to explain your process.
Rmath

example
 

Here is an example

Tribal won a race on June 16th at SA on the turf
The race was the same distance and surface as what he would run on
today 1/8/17 (it was scratched ) but anyway ,

Looking at the win line from 6/16 race 4 Line 5 Tibal ran a
EPR 87 LPR 91.5 and TPR 178.5 in a winning race, so I don't have to be concerned with beaten lengths adjustments .
So for my records Profile
I would add these figures, I would over ride the pace line numbers
but I would bold face them, which tells me they are the actual numbers the horse ran,
I only do this when the race is from the exact distance /surface and track

Attachment 42017

The reason this method works for me is, look how consistent tribal runs its top TPR ratings = 178 Also look just about always right around 87 EPR. The LPR and TPR vary but overall the win line race 5 is very much what this horse's best ability is. And gives me a good map as to what wins at SA

Sure as it drys it is constantly in flux and one has to go by a race to race basis, However THIS IDEA that there is some sort of selective tiredness (later horses coming on over the wet) and the pace horses WILL TIRED somehow more that the later ones (which is just not true as a blanket statement)

If the rest of the day is dull overcast in an NORTHERN climate in February one cannot compare that to a sunny day in a SOUTHERN climate. NO evaporation in the former.