Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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-   Matchup Discussion (http://paceandcap.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=66)
-   -   Saturday night - Sam Houston Turf - 2/11/17 (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10895)

RichieP 02-11-2017 07:51 AM
Saturday night - Sam Houston Turf - 2/11/17
 
2 Attachment(s)
Looking around at some races this morning. I remember being at the "table' in Jersey years ago with Bill V and crew and we used to love to play Sam Houston at night. I happened to see it was running tonight and saw this turf route in the 10th race finale.

Please have a look and feel free to chime in if interested. All "looks" are welcome :)

Here are the entries and tandems:

RichieP 02-11-2017 08:08 AM
4 Attachment(s)
I've marked my contenders and their Power Lines. Here they are along with various readout screens.

RichieP 02-11-2017 08:10 AM
5 Attachment(s)
The field

RichieP 02-11-2017 08:13 AM
5 Attachment(s)
con't

gandalf380 02-11-2017 02:58 PM
Houston turf tonite
 
This race does not look like a lot of speed to me. The #4 Under Review will be up close and I am looking for it to run a big race. It obviously has serious physical problems but looks ready to run. This horse is training well for his first start off a layoff and runs well fresh.

PeteC 02-11-2017 08:58 PM
Sam Houston
 
Greetings Rich....The 4 is scratched here...

The 1 and 5 are the only e/p’s in the race. I project the pace of the last line of #5 (49.0 114.2). My contenders against this pace are the 1 and 7. The 1 has raced all over the place and has done well against faster paces on the turf at Tam and WO. It has won WTW and from 2nd and 3rd position at the 1C. The 7 has won running OTE against a faster pace too. Hard for me to compare their pacelines from various tracks but he 1 runs closer to the pace though so I’ll call it 1-7.

gandalf380 02-11-2017 10:35 PM
Sam houston
 
Since the 4 is scratched, this is between the 5 and the 7. I think tonites distance is a hair too far for the 5, so i will go with the 7 Caberneigh.

Lt1 02-11-2017 10:58 PM
Evening folks. I just saw this so I took a quick look. I'm not a match up specialist but rather prefer to use the compounded ratings. I 'm using the newer version of RDSS. I used line2 for the 5 l9 for the 1 and line1 for the 7. Based on RX 3 readings I'll go with 5-1-7
Tim G

RichieP 02-12-2017 07:12 AM
1 Attachment(s)
The #4 was scratched.

The winning #8 bumrushed the field in the stretch pulling away at the end for the win.

Didn't help me at all and I tore up my tickets :(

Thanks guys for chiming in :)

Here is the result chart

Bill V. 02-12-2017 06:25 PM
Did Not See It
 
Hi Rich

I never noticed the race Bummer

Hey Rich Next time maybe you could post up in the General forum or Race of interest forum that you have a race down in the Matchers area

i have not even been thinking of looking down here since Pook's contest ended.

i am down loading the race now, i probably will come up with something similar to Tim LT1 using RX3 so I'm going to go old school, in honor of the table :)

Bill V. 02-12-2017 07:00 PM
Rich using old school old blue Val 4
 
work up



8.0 T 4+ CL 10000

Open claimer - looking for a logical dropper, late energy, strong VDC ( maybe a binder improver
Using val 4

Horse 1 No turf last 3 rces so i will go to line 4 7.0 turf Speed rating 79
Horse 2 No line No recent form Line 2 effort is a red flag
Horse 3 No line No resent turf form lost as the favorite in line 1 now moves up Danger Red Flag
Horse 4 Scr
Horse 5 Line 1 or 2 75/73 Speed ratings Line 1 was also a + paceline either line 1- 2 F6 says line either one
Horse 6 Unknown N recent Turf form ?
Horse 7 Line 1 73 speed rating + race same class, Positive
Horse 8 Line 5 excuse line 1 and 2 line 1 is 5.0 line 2 is on the dirt 8.3 furlongs
Lines 3,4 and 5 are turf lines but Val 4 is not showing line 4 so its between line 3 and 5
Line 3 is 8.8 BL NG. line 5 is a + race so I will use it.
Horse 9 Line 1 is not a plus race It is at this class but the speed rating is only 69
Line 3 is not a + race but hs a 73 speed rating at 25000 Line 4 is a 78 speed rating at 15000
168 days is a lonng way to go for a best ever Sspeed rating , even though its not a plus race
I will use line 3 becuse line 1 is the first try at Sam Houston
Horse 10 Not in this lifetime




Code:
            HOU0211 10 8.0 T CL 4+  $9,000 CP=$10,000 10:24PM
                                PACELINE DATA
# PN NAME LdNT 1STC  2NDC  FINC  BL1  BL2  BLS  BLF  SR    TRKDISTS

1  1 RICO 4p  46.6 111.2 137.2  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  79    FE  7.0T
2  5 SAINT1 1  48.8 113.8 138.2  0.00  0.00  0.15  1.00  73    HOU 8.5T
3  5 SAINT2    48.3 113.1 137.8  0.00  0.00  0.50  1.30  75    RET 8.0T
4  7 CABER1 1  48.8 113.8 138.2  7.00  2.10  1.60  1.50  73    HOU 8.5T
5  8 ISH R5    48.8 112.8 136.4  6.10  5.20  3.60  2.30  81    RP  8.5T
6  9 LET'S3    49.1 113.4 137.4  2.30  2.70  2.30  5.20  73    RP  8.0T
Code:
            HOU0211 10 8.0 T CL 4+  $9,000 CP=$10,000 10:24PM

                      LATE/EARLY DIFFERENCE GRAPH (VAL4)
 # PNcNAME LdT                      LATE|EARLY                          TOT-R
_______________________________________________________________________________
 1 1 RICO 4p      4.0                  |                            161.1-4
                                        |--->
_______________________________________________________________________________
 2 5 SAINT1 1  -16.0                  |                            160.8-5
                        <---------------|
_______________________________________________________________________________
 3 5 SAINT2    -10.7                  |                            161.1-3
                              <---------|
_______________________________________________________________________________
 4 7 CABER1 1  -19.7                  |                            160.7-6
                    <------------------|
_______________________________________________________________________________
 5 8 ISH R5    -24.1                  |                            164.7-1
                <-----------------------|
_______________________________________________________________________________
 6 9 LET'S3    -17.2                  |                            162.2-2
                      <----------------|
_______________________________________________________________________________
                  EX-L    V-L    M-L  <E>  M-E    V-E    EX-E
Code:
  HOU0211 10 8.0 T CL 4+  $9,000 CP=$10,000 10:24PM

                      INCREMENTAL MATCH-UP GRAPH (VAL4)
┌───────────┬────────────────────┬─────────────────────┬──────────────────────┐
│# PNcNAME L│        1F        │        2F          │    3F+TOTAL PACE    │
├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│
│1  1 RICO 4│                1->│        3->        │ 6->                  │
├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│
│2  5 SAINT1│          3->      │ 6->                │              2->    │
├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│
│3  5 SAINT2│              2->  │ 5->                │ 5->                  │
├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│
│4  7 CABER1│  6->              │    4->            │          3->        │
├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│
│5  8 ISH R5│  5->              │                  1->│                  1->│
├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│
│6  9 LET'S3│      4->          │            2->    │              2->    │
└───────────┴────────────────────┴─────────────────────┴──────────────────────┘
Code:
            HOU0211 10 8.0 T CL 4+  $9,000 CP=$10,000 10:24PM

                        THE  V A L I D A T O R (VAL4)

┌─┬───────────┬───┬───┬────────┐  ┌───┬───┬───┬───┬──┬──┬──┐  ┌──────┐  ┌────┐
│#│PN NAME LdT│SPR│BAL│  TOT-R│  │EPR│LPR│CPR│ TT│FW│HE│FX│  │V/DC-T│  │SUPP│
├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤  ├──────┤  ├────┤
│1│ 1 RICO 4p │ 79│  8│161.08-4│  │  1│  6│  2│  4│ 6│ 6│ 5│  │    6│  │  6│
├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤  ├──────┤  ├────┤
│2│ 5 SAINT1 1│ 73│  8│160.83-5│  │  3│  4│  4│  6│ 4│ 4│ 2│  │    2│  │  3│
├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤  ├──────┤  ├────┤
│3│ 5 SAINT2  │ 75│  9│161.11-3│  │  2│  5│  3│  5│ 5│ 5│ 4│  │    5│  │  4│
├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤  ├──────┤  ├────┤
│4│ 7 CABER1 1│ 73│  8│160.73-6│  │  6│  2│  6│  2│ 2│ 2│ 6│  │    3│  │  5│
├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤  ├──────┤  ├────┤
│5│ 8 ISH R5  │ 81│  2│164.67-1│  │  4│  1│  1│  1│ 1│ 1│ 1│  │    1│  │  1│
├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤  ├──────┤  ├────┤
│6│ 9 LET'S3  │ 73│  7│162.23-2│  │  5│  3│  5│  3│ 3│ 3│ 3│  │    2│  │  2│
└─┴───────────┴───┴───┴────────┘  └───┴───┴───┴───┴──┴──┴──┘  └──────┘  └────┘
Code:
  HOU0211 10 8.0 T CL 4+  $9,000 CP=$10,000 10:24PM

                      BOTTOM LINE -- BETTING LINE (VAL4)

HIDE#  PNcNAME LdT  SR  BAL    LS TIE ODDS  TRKDISTS  M/L DAYS AGE

    5  8 ISH R5    81    2  23.0    EVEN  RP  8.5T  8/1  15  5

    6  9 LET'S3    73    7  17.0      5-2  RP  8.0T 12/1  14  4

    4  7 CABER1 1  73    8  13.0      4-1  HOU 8.5T  4/1  14  12

    2  5 SAINT1 1  73    8  12.5      9-2  HOU 8.5T  5/2  14  8

    3  5 SAINT2    75    9  12.3      9-2  RET 8.0T  5/2  14  8

    1  1 RICO 4p  79    8  9.8      6-1  FE  7.0T  6/1  32  7
Code:
SYNTHESIS POWER RANKINGS AND FRACTALS
                  ┌──┬─┬─┬────┬────┐┌─────┐          │    PRIM    │  SUPP  │
                  │ B│L│T│PRIM│SUPP││FRACT│          │E│L│C│T│H│F│F│S│F│E│T│T│
┌─┬───────────┬───┤ A│S│O├──┬─┼──┬─┤├─┬─┬─┤┌───┬────┐│P│P│P│T│E│W│X│P│X│N│S│P│
│#│PNcNAME LdT│ SR│ L│P│T│LS│R│LS│R││E│L│N││ESP│SCBL││R│R│R│ │ │ │ │N│ │T│ │P│
├─┼───────────┼───┼──┼─┼─┼──┼─┼──┼─┤├─┼─┼─┤├───┼────┤├─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┤
│1│ 1 RICO 4p │ 79│ 8│3│4│30│6│25│6││2│6│6││PRE│    ││1│6│2│4│6│6│5│6│5│6│2│6│
│2│ 5 SAINT1 1│ 73│ 8│4│5│27│4│18│3││5│4│4││LAT│ 6.6││3│4│4│6│4│4│2│3│2│3│5│5│
│3│ 5 SAINT2  │ 75│ 9│5│3│29│5│21│4││3│5│5││LAT│ 4.7││2│5│3│5│5│5│4│5│4│5│4│3│
│4│ 7 CABER1 1│ 73│ 8│1│6│26│3│24│5││6│3│3││LAT│ 7.3││6│2│6│2│2│2│6│4│6│4│6│4│
│5│ 8 ISH R5  │ 81│ 2│2│1│10│1│ 5│1││1│1│1││LAT│ 4.0││4│1│1│1│1│1│1│1│1│1│1│1│
│6│ 9 LET'S3  │ 73│ 7│6│2│25│2│12│2││4│2│2││LAT│ 5.1││5│3│5│3│3│3│3│2│3│2│3│2│
└─┴───────────┴───┴──┴─┴─┴──┴─┴──┴─┘└─└─┴─┘└───┴────┘└─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┘
winner

Code:
            HOU0211 10 8.0 T CL 4+  $9,000 CP=$10,000 10:24PM            8/10
JOCK/TRAIN      R  W  P  S  W%        R  W  P  S  EARNINGS  W%      EPS  R
PARKER, DESHAW  21  7  1  4  33 LIFE  23  3  2  1    78,826  13    3,427  5
DAVIDSON, M    31  1  4  5    3 CURR  1  0  0  0      276    0      276  4
                                    PAST  10  1  0  0    16,120  10    1,612  7
ML= 8/1                            T-RT  17  3  2  1    76,823  18    4,519  3
  8 ISH RULES                AGE=5  OFF-T  1  0  0  0
 COMMENT:
                      EQUALIZED, NORMALIZED AND ADJUSTED
L DAYSTRK RCODISTSd 1STC  2NDC  FINC  BL1  BL2  BLS  BLF  SR  ESP    L PI
1  15HOU 8FM 5.0Tp 47.6 113.4 137.9  1.80  2.10  3.20  4.00  71          1
2  72RP  5FT 8.3D  46.6 111.1 137.4  4.60 12.60 21.10 25.80  52          2
3  133RP  8FM 8.5T  47.0 111.1 135.6 15.70  9.90  7.70  8.80  78          3
4  155RP  5FM 8.0T              0.0
5[ 182RP  4FM 8.5T  48.8 112.8 136.4  6.10  5.20  3.60  2.30  81          5    ]
6  210LS  8FM 7.5Tp 48.0 113.7 137.3  4.50  4.10  2.90  3.40  75          6
7  237LS  7FM 8.0T  50.0 114.1 138.5  2.80  4.30  6.90  6.30  66          7
8  252LS  5FT 8.0D  48.3 112.6 136.8  2.20  3.10  7.50 12.30  68          8
9  351HOU 9FM 8.5T  48.6 112.7 136.9 10.50  5.20  9.30  5.50  75          9
A  364HOU 1FM 8.5T  49.2 113.6 137.6  2.00  2.00  0.00  0.00  77          A
                                    DETAILS
L TYPE          PU/CP JOCKEY        PP FN FD    ODDSF COMMENT
1 CL-4+C        15,000 DIEGO, IRAM    8  5  8    2.90  3W TURN, NO MENACE
2 CL-3+        15,000 MCNEIL, BRYAN  7  8  8  27.40  THROUGH AFTER HALF
3 OC-3+C        35,000 VAZQUEZ, RAMON  1  9 11  28.60  INSIDE, BUMP,NO MENACE
4 OC-3+C        50,000 CABRERA, DAVID  4  7  8  14.60  VIED 3W, FALTERED
5[AL-3+        40,000 CABRERA, DAVID  2  4  6  25.20  MILD RALLY, NO THREAT,
6 AL-3+NW2      23,000 QUINONEZ, LUIS  1  6 12  16.10  RAIL 1ST TURN,2P 2ND
7 AL-3+NW2      23,000 SORENSON, DANN  5  7  8  20.10  4W TURNS,STEADIED 3/8
8 OC-3+NW2      35,000 SORENSON, DANN  2  4  6    9.00  EAGER,RAIL TURNS,EMPTY
9 OC-4+NW2      30,000 CHACALTANA, DO  9  9 11    4.00  UNHURRIED, NO THREAT,
A AL-4+NW1      20,000 SORENSON, DANN  5  1 10    8.50  STALK, BID 2W, HELD ON
                                  WORK OUTS
 4D(MY)HOU: 50.2B  5D(FT)HOU:101.6B  5D(MY)HOU:104.0B  4D(MY)HOU: 50.0B
 5D(FT)RP :103.8H  4D(FT)RP : 50.1B  4D(FT)RP : 50.3H  5D(FT)RP :102.6H
                                  FREQUENCY
WORK OUTS  21  31  41  49  77  98  119  161  168  188  195  217
RACES      15  72  133  155  182  210  237  252  351  364  378  472

Lt1 02-12-2017 07:02 PM
Hey Bill the 8 was #1 on bl/bl and #4 on RX3. BL/BL had it 8-1-7-5 while RX3 had 5-1-7-8,RX2 had 1-5-7-8 and rx1 5-1-7-8. After seeing odds those choosing to hide the 5 &7 both @ 2-1 would have played 1 &8. Ain't hindsight great lol. I used line 5 for the 8. And no I didn't play the race .
Tim G

Bill V. 02-12-2017 07:18 PM
nice
 
Thanks Tim

When ever I read your post I picture you as surly a 'table' guy

i use the RX3 as an additional tool, not a final readout . The great thing is Ted has the BLBL
line score readout on the same screen as the RX
. I hope he leaves things like this a does not just add RX onto the already way too busy BLBL screen

GS
Bill

Lt1 02-13-2017 11:54 AM
Bill I really miss the seminars and getting together with Doc,Jimmy, and other old friends. Not only did we learn something but it was fun time getting together after a day of classes. Fortunately I still get to chat with Mitch and Rich Mathie on a regular basis to share some ideas and laughs while recalling old times.
Tim G

Bill V. 02-13-2017 12:45 PM
Good company
 
You can't go wrong with nice men like Rich Mathie and Mitch
Good group,

Lt1 02-13-2017 07:43 PM
They are both very classy folks and I'm proud to call them friends. This site also has plenty of class folks including yourself Bill. Hopefully someday more of us can meet up. It would make for a hell of a day.
Tim G


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