Boutique Meets - Best approach?
 

Keeneland starts up today. Shippers from all over the place descend upon Lexington for the next 3 weeks. Even with a consistent paceline/contender procedure, is it even worth following/selecting/betting considering all the variables at play?

Although I don't like these boutique meets when and if I decide to play there I just stick to my way of capping for any race. You must be consistent in your approach. In this case I do have a model from last yr, so even though I know it may not reflect what will happen this yr, it is a starting point. I have found that when tracks only run short meets my models do tend to hold up from the previous yr. I will however start with smaller bets until I get a handle on what's happening now.
Tim G

Years ago, Dr. Bill Quirin wrote, "The universal track bias is early speed." That's especially true of the Keeneland dirt. Sustained horses seldom get up. In that regard, it's like a West Coast track but with full fields. ;)

Funny
 

Funny story , one of the guys I hang with at Del Mar makes his living signing tickets
He is a lousy handicapper , but everybody wants him in the group for some reason wink ,

Anyway last year opening day or weekend he asks me for my selections
for a pick 3

We hit the first leg with a big long shot but it was not one of my selections
Anyway we hit the pick 3 it paid like 700 I never made another bet there
Got out on top :-)

DOC loved the placed, And Ihave have visited it but they were not running live at the time. It is a beautiful place .

Bill,

Speaking of Del Mar, that's next on my list. Woodbine last year, Saratoga this year, and Del Mar next year. (After 20+ years on the bench, I can't tell you how much I love retirement.)

Keeneland 2nd race
 

Jeebs,

Keeneland's 2nd race today might be informative. #2 "Rhodium" is an E8 with a 3-point speed advantage over #1 (P5) and a 5-point advantage over #3 (EP3). My Segments screen shows #2 with a two-length lead at the second call, but getting caught by #1 in the third fraction and losing by more than a length.

#2 is shipping from Oaklawn, dropping from an OC40K/n2x, and has a decent gate jockey in Rafael Hernandez. It will be interesting to see how far she can go. In years past, a mare with those credentials would take the early lead and keep right on going, winning by opening lengths. We'll see. I don't think there's any value in this race, so I won't be betting. But watching can be good, too.

Let me run this race real quick.

So, two races into the meet and favorites on the lead have won easily. Frankly, that could happen at most tracks. Now, we look for a non-favorite on the lead and see how far he can go.

Bombs away...
 

A big thanks to Mick... this just happened...

Attachment 43192

Attachment 43193

Attachment 43194

That, is what we refer to in NY, as a BANG!

Congratulations, Jeebs!
 

Jeebs, that's GREAT! We call that a BOMB in Kentucky, but we understand BANG, too.

And in the very next race, the Blue Grass, Irap, a maiden, never more than half a length off the lead, wins and pays $64.60.

I had neither but I'm glad you had one of them.

I didn't attend the Breeders' Cup at Keeneland, but today was as crowded as I have ever seen the place. I'm back at the hotel now, looking forward to a good night's sleep. And tomorrow, I get to do it again, but with a lot fewer people there.

Congratulations! :D

Your selection of running lines to produce this result is not something I could have come up with using my understanding of the methodolgy and its line selection rules. Can you be so kind as to share your thought process.

Very nice hit Jeebs. BIG CONGRATS!!!!
Mitch44

Velocity - POH
 

Good morning, Mitch.

Jeebs posted the Velocity - POH screen for his big BANG. And you recently posted a POH screen for a big winner you had and reminded us all of Brohamer's admonition that a horse needs to control two fractions, not one. Since your post, I have been clicking on the POH screen almost every race I handicap, looking for that pattern. And I've had some winners, especially with late running horses underneath in exactas. Thank you. A word in season, as the Bible says.

I call it show me the money!

Thought process was that the horse was an E, and had the top F1 velocity on a mega biased speed track. The other factors were out the window. If I eliminated on TE as I normally do, the horse is out and I'm ripping.

BIG CONGRATS mowens33!!!! NICE ONE!!!!

Hoe did you get that maiden in a gr.1 race?

Mitch44

Mitch, Thanks!

Irap, was coming off his best early/late pace number and at those odds was well worth the investment.

Jeebs, l like your thought process!!

Big congrats, Mike! You had more balls than me in that race! I went in that direction but with the wrong potential speed. The megabias at KEE on dirt supercedes everything else right now.

Jeebs: I had all the same lines as you except the # 7. With that horse either line 1 or 5 were the only correct lines to use. Line 1 was a turf route and today was a dirt route. Line 5 was a dirt race but at 7F which is 1.5 F diff. from todays distance. So either one violates the "Doc's"" procedures. Here is where "The Hats" rule comes;" You have to use what you have."

Now race 5 is a maiden race and people with the old premise of not using maiden lines when no longer a maiden would never use that line. With the way maiden races are today and race classification are pay absolutely no attention to class when picking pace lines.

So here your forced to use what you race either a turf line in a dirt race or a md. race 1.5 F from todays distance.
Now if you use lin1 1 on turf this horse comes up #3 on BLBL and if your a wager capper you got this. Myself I don't wager cap and use other criteria to separate my contenders which has served me very well. It's a percentage thing.

If you play to the track profile you choose L5 and a horse who in last race proved it can rate by almost winning in a route and improving form. Therefore a very gettable race indeed.

Remember Bradshaw; " Use what you have." Burn that one into your memory.
Mitch44

Mitch,

It also helped remembering how Corey Lanerie detonated a down the road speed bomb in a similar spot last year when I was in a Derby Wars qualifier (before NY residents were banned). He knows this track. It was a calculated risk.

Jeebs, you hit the nail right on the head!

Mick, Thanks for the post!!

Mike

Mick:
Horses that can put together two good Fr's place pressure on others and force them not to run their 3rd Fr or if a true S type(run two good FR) is the only horse that may have a chance.
Works better in sprints but still very effective in turf races and routes. There are a few routers that drop back and get up but they normally have a class advantage. Basically a horse that projects into the 2nd FR are the better horses.

I always look for this and the Velocity screen is one of my favorites along with several others.
Mitch44

Back at the track now, doing my homework. Heck, I'm proud to know you guys. 😄

Mick the feeling is mutual.
Good Skill
Mike

Ditto Mick.
Mitch44

Irap article in Bloodhorse
 

www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/220899/blue-grass-hero-irap-in-good-order-after-shocking-win

Everyone was shocked but Mike. :D

Mick, even a blind squirrel can find a nut sometimes!

;)

Nice nut.

LOL Mick
Tim G

Mick, I set myself up for that one!

LOL

Mike