Day 16 DMR feature race Race 7 8.0 OC40N-2X
 

Welcome back
After a short break, we are back at Del Mar.
Today the feature race is race 7
1 Mile Dirt Purse $62,000 Allowance Optional Claiming 3 + F M

This looks like a good opportunity, 9 horses with a nice balance of running styles and a morning line favorite @3/1 horse 8

I dedicate this race to one of my all time favorites Glenn Campbell RIP

I know it is kind of corny but I love this one

https://youtu.be/J_Qe1U5JIt8


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Tpr
 

Phase 1

8 has an advantage on TPR the 3 sprinters have good adjustments :cool:

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Yeah great song Bill. Not a fan of country necessarily but I always liked Glenn Campbell. Love the heavy duty burns from back then.

Pook

Unknowns
 

A few unknowns here. Reduced to 2 contenders mostly because they are less unknown. There are two types of unknowns. The known unknowns and the unknown unknowns. I will stick with a couple of knowns.

5,7 @ 60/40

Pook

I like the 8 and I am going with the 1 off the turf race, big jump in TE and better 2f and 3f than most of the others.

I like the 7 going gate to finish, but will add the 1 just in case.

Mike

# 1,2,3,4 are all unknowns stretching out, I believe the 1 & 2 are the best of those.
#5 is an unknown with only two routes and won last, ability and top unknown.
# 6 is an unknown also, has proven distance but not dirt ability, is he better on turf or will he spring the upset on dirt today?
# 7 has proven dis. and surface second off a layoff with good w/o in between, a sharp improving horse at a M/L of 15-1 which is way way out of line.
# 8 has also proven dis. & surface but has run at these conditions 6 times without a win, doesn't appear to want to win and has certainly had his shots. Also probably will be the favorite who I think is vulnerable.
# 9 based on lines 5 &n 6 I'm not sure how this horse is eligible for these race conditions, also is a 7 year old and this race favors younger horses. Since his best races Lines 5 & 6 he has seemed to decline but has had 4 different trainers since. Those trainers have decent records so I'm not sure this is the same horse or how far he'll decline. A M/L of 4-1 doesn't seem worth the risk. I'd say he also is an unknown.

I see this race as 7 out of 9 unknowns or a pass. If I do bet it being I spent time on it, I have it as 7-2-1 Risk verses reward here are also a big factors and a reduced bet or fun bet.
Mitch44

My contenders are 1-7-8-5-3. With 12 min before post the 1 is 8/5 and way too low for a bet. Will make my win bets $3wp 7 and $2wp 8. Will also take a $1 ex box 1-5-7-8 tot bet $22. Good luck guys.
Tim

# Horse JockeyWeightTrainer Win $ Place $ Show $
2 Mistressofthenight R. Bejarano 117LbsR. Baltas 14.60 6.80 6.00
3 Reiki Baby S. Gonzalez 121Lbs A. Kitchingman 7.80 5.60
6 Midnight Lilly T. Pereira 119LbsH. Palma 15.00

Times in 5ths: :23 :472 1:121 1:252 1:383
Times in 100ths: :23.14 :47.41 1:12.39 1:25.52 1:38.72

Winner Information:

Winning Trainer: Baltas Richard | Owner: Beerman Family Trust, Hall, Greg and Sayjay Racing LLC

Winning Sire: Midnight Lute | Breeder: George Krikorian

Unplaced horses listed in order of finish:
Also ran: Just a Little Hope, Rosie My Rosie, That's a Lady, Utana, Allsquare and Candy Swirls

Pay offs: $1.00 Exacta (2-3) Paid: $45.60 , $2.00 Quinella (2-3) Paid: $52.40 , $.50 Trifecta (2-3-6) Paid: $761.80 , $1.00 Superfecta (2-3-6-1) Paid: $5,191.40 , $1.00 Pick 3 (1-3-2) (3 Correct) Paid: $116.20 Pick 3 Pool $37,845.00 , $2.00 Daily Double (3-2) Paid: $46.40 Daily Double Pool $26,457.00

Mitch44

Mitch, hope you had a few dollars on the duce.

Thanks for your write up and the race details.

Mike

I was surprised that they bet down the # 1 and made it the favorite. And the more I evaluated the race the better the 2 & 7 looked.

I think there are two big lessons or take a way's here; 1. there is no black box and those that don't take the time to review the top 4 BLBL horses charts are destined to the poor house and 2. when you have ugly races or races with a bunch of unknowns your normal selection method for contenders needs to change and evaluate them all or consider them all contenders. I pretty much approach them all the same way.

When you get away from fun bets one needs a more through approach to contenders and also for tough races such as Breeders Cup races, races with foreign horses etc.

Far too many today are into instant gratification and don't or won't spend the time on a race. Then again with the proliferation of computers today perhaps evaluation of Past Performances has become a lost art.

I actually did this race with Bris PP which I always use in conjunction with RDSS however once I saw the unknowns involved I wasn't going to waste $3 on a RDSS download. Horses like the winner most likely won't come up in RDSS in these situations and many times improving horses. I did notice this morning on Bill V. information posted, the winner was # 1 Late on the sticks and perhaps might have been #1 on HE. Any top two E or 3rd FR horses are strong candidates for win. Although I prefer Tom Brohammer's run two good fractions which HE does.

Mitch44

The 2
 

Mitch

You did a fantastic job identifying the 2.

That was a real tough one for me, I ended up not being able to get a bet in.
They have been keeping me in farm land in central Cali. So my internet
is shaky.

I would not have been able to make a win bet on the 2 But I figured he was a player with that LPR


Good work by you

Bill

Thanks Bill, get out of there before you go shopping for bib overalls after meeting that farm girl.

Mitch44

Beach Boy
 

No Mitch
That will not happen She will have to love the beach
I'm too much of a beach boy now :cool:

oops
 

just realized i did not post the chart

Here is Weds chart


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