Pace less - De;aware 2nd
 

ok here is Saturday's Delaware's 2nd race - Paceless with 1 line out of all horses lines on the lead at 1st call.

Delaware 2nd - Paceless
 

Delaware 2nd cont

I have been looking for races with absolutely no 1st's at the first call anywhere in the PP's for any horse. Maybe too stringent. Last Saturday your race had a horse with an ancient 1st call and that worked in a paceless way.

Here is how I would approach the no pace Delaware 2 on Saturday. Kind of a hybrid thing. Narrow the contenders and select pacelines:



Could only throw the 1 out.



Don't try to project the pace. Let RDSS show who may be in front at the first call.



From this screen:

Attachment 44375



From what Jim wrote about these paceless horses toss out the two in front who are closely matched - the 2 and 4.

Attachment 44376

Of the remaining, which look to be in their positional comfort zone in a winning race? Looks like the 3,5 to me. 6 wouldn't be out of the question.
As confirmed by these screens:

Attachment 44377



So at this point using RDSS tools and the Matchup approach to a paceless race we are on the 3,5. I think. Anybody chime in with their thoughts. Would you try to project the pace?

Pook

Paceless Races
 

Chart

The 4 was scratched which changed the complexion. 1 took the lead and gave it up to the 6. No great surprise at 1-1. 6 wasn't out of the question.

Pook

None of these types found for Sunday the 24th. Rare birds these are.

Pook

Pook
Monday the 25th - Mountaineer - Race 3

1 line from 1 horse in all of pps had lead at 1c.

Ready for the name??

#7 - My Hat

:D:D:D:D

wont have time to post pps -

Beautiful!! The one threat to run away with it is a dirt sprinter named My Hat!
Here are the PP's

More

Last

Contenders 1,2,3,5. Eliminated #7 My Hat because of no turf route lines.
2 shows to be in front. Toss the 2.

Comes down to 1,3,5. Which will be more comfortable positionally? They all look not too bad.

These are the best turf races of the three. This is a maiden so these can only be so good. Positions of 4th and 6th at the first call.

Those races place the three horses thus. 3 looks to have the advantage.

3 is the ML favourite and looks to be bet down but this isn't about odds. It is about trying to develop a paceless race method using The Hats stuff mixed with modern software tools.

3
Pook

Having said that the 5 is very close to the 3 and would make an acceptable 2nd bet.

3,5
Pook

Chart

#7 does take the lead with #2 right behind. They both give it up late stretch to a non contender which I would never get. The race ran in a fairly predictable way with a contender #1 getting up for second at a price only a head out of first. The result was chaotic. These are generally chaotic races. However some semblance of a consistent approach is emerging.

Pook

From the three latest paceless races, winners and place horses have been in the final groups of contenders. Here is a look at first call positional preferences in their best efforts.

Pook

RP4: #9 WON - good price
DEL2: #6 WON - low price
MNR3: #1 PLACED - good place price

In the vicinity but being on the one or two right ones enough of the time? Don't know. Seem to be heading down the right path. Need more races. Will continue to look.

Pook

Sept 26. Two races today qualify. And they are pure. NO first call 1st's anywhere in the PP's.

The rest.

Fl7

PP's

The rest

Tdn2
Contenders 5,6,8
#8 in front. Gives it up to #5 who holds on to a closing #6 who may be closing from too far back.

#5
Pook

Fl7
Contenders 1,2,4,5,6
#2 to the lead. Of the rest #4 is best positioned to win.

#4
Pook

tdn
 

5-8 Out of the Tandem Race Sept 12


Bob

Fl
 

4-2 Like the 112 and change they can both run.


Bob

TDN2 Chart

FL 7 Chart

At TDN today the expected uncomfortable on the lead horse held on to win anyway. At FL the upfront horse had cover from a NC and then passed late to win. Looks like Bob handicapped (matched) them traditionally and got both.

Pook

Another paceless race tomorrow: TDN3

Pook

Paceless races
 

Just for the heck of it I thought I would work these two races, one from FL and the other from TDN. The reason is because these two races were chosen for lack of any early horses. What became really interesting is that in both races the ENERGY program identified the winner’s ESP as EARLY and the program determined the variegate to be EARLY. In one race the match up found that one of the early horses owned the first two fractions. Always a PLUS for an early horse. I used my usual guidelines. Here are the screen shots for each race.

Finger Lakes
 

The FL screen shots from ENERGY.

Tdn
 

The TDN screen shots

Hi FTL,

I'm glad you posted the Energizer screens. First you pointed out an inconsistency in my approach. This is a work in progress so its okay. Secondly they confirmed the screens in RDSS. I didn't show those screens that got me to the decision ones. Here they are:

Based on them I eliminated #2 at FL and #8 at TDN. Those were the runners that looked to be in a lead that they weren't comfortable with.

The TDN race was where I screwed up. It is the first fraction we are concerned with here, not the EP as shown with the bars.

This screen:

Which would have resulted in this screen:

In that scenario #8 would have been the single choice. I know it took the lead and kept it, but we can't predict them perfectly. So Energizer and RDSS concurred. They are using the same info. And the FL race didn't work. The early hung on.

When looking for these races I am not diving into numbers. They are quick scans as Richie does, looking for absences of 1's at the first call. So far I am surprised at how predictable they have been. In both races yesterday the race callers remarked at how slow the initial pace was. Perfect!

I use your guidelines for contenders. Toss the front end which may or may not include 1 or more runners. The last part is more tricky. I think in most cases you want the runners most closely positioned behind. Maybe the runner with the biggest blue stick.

Pook