Saratoga
 

Saratoga race 10
This is a 6f race with 10 entries after scratches.
The 7 Smash Williams 7/2 ML and the 11 Discreet Mission 9/2 are my two main win horses.
My win bets will be on both horses if they are both above 5/2, if either or both are below 5/2 I will pass the race.

Good luck Richie.
Tim

Thanks
 

ThanksTim.
Hope this one pays as well as that one the other day.

Richie

Did you give that money back?. lol
Tim

Ha ha
 

No I decided to keep it and use some of it today.
I forgot to put in the #8 as my third horse, if he goes off at 10/1 or higher he will be a nice saver.
Richie

notes
 

Richard
Wishing you great skill ( You have that in the bank) and Luck :)

Here are my notes I hope you get a good result, This one has me stumped



Race 10 CL16,000 Nonwinners of 2 races lifetime
3 and up males

The conditions of the race show that all these horses have only 1 win - their maiden win. Now they're trying to win again against winners.

Horse 1 Scratch

Horse 2 Can Go - Just won against MC12000 at Finger Lakes at 2.6/1 Line 1 86 83.5 169.5 E/L 2.5

Horse 3 Zento He has been spending lots of time in the barn He won at MCs30 at AQU at 9.1/1
He should have shown more in his return at Fingerlakes
Then he went on another layoff He's been stabled
here at Sar. but he only shows 1 so-so workout
in the last two weeks Rating line 2
87.9 81.1 160 E/L 6.8

Horse 4 Lake Party He ran a plus race in line 2
against open 20,000 claimers, The track was a fast -24
DTV His 87 87.2 174 with a -0.2 looks a little over
his normal track abilities Line 2

Horse 5 Musicality He tried CL40000 first try against winners after beating MC state 25's
He comes in off a 157-day layoff
He had the lead for the first two fractions but faded.
in line 1. I will rate him using line 2.
92.3 81.2 173.5 He shows excellent workout

Horse 6 Scratch

Horse 7 Smash Williams I Ortiz and Pletcher.
Line 2 is his maiden special win at GP for $46000
He tried Open 30,000 but ran okay early but nothing late
Then another 5 weeks layoff with mild workouts
Because of the big drop and form issues
I will rate him from line 2 92.4 75.1 167.5 17.3 E/L

Horse 8 Go Big or Go Home His recent form is off
This is the second race off a layoff He shows a
good workout 9 days ago
His ratings will come from line 6 which was his MC40 win
89 87 176 E/L 2

Horse 9 Scratch

Horse 10 Street Cat Sam He just ran a plus race against this exact same condition He is in peak form with a gate work 6 days ago Line 1 91.9 85.3 177.1 E/L 6.6

Horse 11 Discreet Mission Tough call here.
His best races at 1 mile. He comes off a 47-day layoff
and he has beautiful workouts All I can do is take the adjusted line 1 readouts 91.2 86.4 177.6 E/L 4.8

Horse 12 Analyze Your Luck he started his career winning a $100.000 MS at Belmont His last plus race was at the weird 8.2
furlong distance at Finger Lakes in an allowance 18
He failed at short odds in both tries at Finger Lakes
I will rate him the adjusted line 2 85 84 169 E/L 1.0

Horse 13 Money Laundering Beat MCs25's just about a year ago here at SAR. Then he went on a 296-day layoff
He ran well in his return against this level in line 1
But then went back in the barn I will rate him from line 1
since the workouts are not too good and poorly spaced

Attachment 46709

Two min to post
#7 5/2 5.00 w
#11 7/2 5.00w # 8 8/1 2.00
see what happens

Not Bad
 

$!2.00 invested. 22.75 returned.10.75 profit.
I will take it.

Thanks for your breakdown Bill
I always like to see how others break down a race.
Rmath

Nice job Richie,
Tim

Horses
 

Thanks, Richard - Hello Tim

I roamed over to DMR and kind of forgot to watch the race at Saratoga
I'm glad you took the prices,

Thanks for the race. It was a race of interest.t

BTW I hit my "place to be" horse today
Race 4 #4 Brandothebartender "may the 4 horse be with you"

Makes up a little for yesterdays disaster at PRX. My PTB ran 4th at 1/5 :eek:


Attachment 46711

Hi Bill. Good job on the Del Mar race.
Tim

Please read the post at this location.
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...660#post116660

Rich
 

Just out of curiosity how did you go about choosing your pace line for #11? His last 3 races at a mile were not very good and todays race is a sprint?

Bob

Excellent Question
 

Thanks, Bob, That is a great question

Hello Richard

If you need this, Here is the RDSS PP with workouts
Good Skill

Attachment 46715

Raceman, I use the best of the last three that is the default setting on paceline selections in RDSS.
Race 3 was the computers pick at 6.5f and Since this line gave the horse in question a ranking that put him in my top three I did not need to go back any further.
Hope this helps.
Richard

Raceman5 I sent you a private pm.
If you wish to respond let me know.
Richard

Bob,

Rich's settings may differ slightly, but the auto-paceline selector (Best of last 3 comparable distance/surface) chose the sprint. If you chose the 'extracted sprint' from either of its last 2 routes the horse ranks even higher on BL or Rx rankings.

The horse ticked all the other boxes on impactful rankings: consistency of Speed (CSR) and other external rankings non-correlated to speed/pace/deceleration - namely Morning Line, ProfitLine, Prime Power. If you use either of its last 2 routes, it also rates rank 1 or 2 in all 'Sartin' ratings. From a 'story-line' analysis, it had been off for 2 years (likely injury in Jan 2016), now returning slowly and trying to find a competitive level, also proper distance for whatever it has still got to give. Hard to eliminate it, and the Exacta with the #8 was just a gift from the racing gods!

Attachment 46717

Ted

Thanks
 

guys, sometimes the internal fractions will come out better.

Bob

Horses
 

Hello Bob

I agree. It did, in this case, using TPR I had the 11 rated on top using both the last line and line 2. But since it was not a plus race and I was extracting I decided to pass.

I see RDSS auto selects the "best of last 3" to line 3 but I try not to use non plus races pacelines. As I mentioned the other day. You probably will never see me post anything a winning with high mutual

But I am doing well these days with a high win percentage and rebates

Attachment 46721