My Speculative Plays 09-04-18
 

I am of belief that the biggest anticipated R.O.I will come from
"Speculative" Plays.
Conventional handicapping will not, for the most part, come up with these plays.
I do believe that spending hours studying the numbers of the racing form
or whatever instrument you choose to handicap with, will prove fruitless and in my opinion would be a complete waste of time and energy.

I am not a proponent of betting for place or multiple win picks in a given race.
On that note, I willl list what my conception of betting opportunities for todays PRX and TDN

Please keep in mind that winning one or two "speculative" win bets on any given days will prove, in most cases, to be profitable. I realize I may lose all of my bets on any given day, but know that in the long run, I will show a profit.

Race -1 TDN #7 CANT LOLLYGAG

Race -5 TDN #7 OHIYO

Race -6 TDN #2 SORCERER'S PRINCE

Race -7 TDN #8 BACKSPLASH

Race -8 TDN #2 MISS D IRISH
-----------------------------

Race -2 PRX #6 PAINTER'S PRIDE

Race -4 PRX #3 JONES TAXI

Race -6 PRX #7 MR.LOUIS

Race -7 PRX #3 TACTICAL PURSUIT (IRE)

Race -9 PRX #3 BARB'S GRAY GIRL

Good luck today.
Tim

My look Race 7
 

Horse 1 Only has 1 useable Turf route Line 2 at 7.5 He is moving up in class and has no supporting turf races No line

Horse 2 He has 2 useable turf routes within 90 days Three-time winner
I will use both lines 1 and 3

Horse 3 Outclassed in line 1 at Saratoga but he did run well early
I will rate him of the + race against 100,000 stakes company in line 2

Horse 4 NO LINE

Horse 5 Scr

Horse 6 + race line 1 Broke maiden at PID, otherwise no supporting
Turf Plus races

Horse 7 No line

Horse 8 no line

Horse 9 Scr

Horse 10 No line

Horse 11 Both line 1 and 3 are + races within 90 days

Horse 12 only has 1 win, and that was on the dirt
He ran well in line 1 at 7.5 on the turf at 8/1
Since he has never run a supporting race on the turf I will downgrade his chance here


I will pass,

Contenders are 2 6 11 3

Nice one
 

Bill

Good Job getting the place horse #3

I whiffed on the winner #1 only had the tricky 7.5 line to work with

Thanks Bill and Tim
I had a nice winner at PRX - Race 6
In Race -7 my pick was bet down and placed.

Nice hit in the 6th Bill.
Tim

Hi Bill V
How you feeling Bill. In race 7 I did use the 7.5 f race [l2] since it is within 1/2 f of todays' race. Additionally it was the lone e[rs] of my contenders with a late esp. He also ended up with the best 3rd fraction of my top 4 contenders. With Carmouche[ a speed rider and former leading rider here]in from NY to ride for Pletcher in r4 then staying to ride races 7 &8 for Juan Carlos Guerrero sealed the deal for me. My contenders were
#1 L2
#2L3
#3 L3
#6 L1
#11 L2
I ending up betting #1 & 2 since I had other non Sartin knocks on the others. Winner paid $7.20

completed 0d5a7-92db7 PARX R7 $10WP #1/2 TOTAL BET $20 RET $ 36 +$16.
Tim

Tim, nice job in R7.

Good skill
 

Way to go Tim. Thanks Bill for the races


Nice work on the winner in race

Good call Tim trusting the 7.5 distance

Bill

Bill it also had to do with something Glenn Connelly told me years ago which was never overlook a lone early or lone late in a race no matter with its' readouts looked like The same situation happened in race 8. The 3 was lone early and won paying $5.
Tim

7.5
 

Hi Tim

Thanks for the Glenn Connely tip.

I just got a little redemption. Race 8 from Retima was a 75,000 stakes race
for 2-year-olds Everybody was coming of MS wins at 7.5 except horse 4
who ran a + race against stakes 65

My win bet was the 7
Plus a $25 "Place To Be" on the 7
I did not make much on the PTB bet but they give a great rebate at Retima

The 4 had the class and stakes experience,but no turf
The 4 was the only horse on the early side of the E/L graph The 7 was the # 1 LPR

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