GP10 28Dec18
 

My initial interest in this race was because my friend Don E (aka the tazzerbobo) owns #10 Rumbago. For some, Rumbago would be an immediate toss because he's 20-1 ML. However, this is a big field of chronic losers and Rumbago is lightly raced with 5 ITM finishes in 8 races. He also has 2 turf wins at GP. He's returning in 12 days after a poor showing on dirt and when I line through his two dirt starts, I see that he's 4 for 6 ITM on grass. Now my interest is piqued.

There are certainly negatives which is why he's 20-1. His best races have been when he's on the lead and he's breaking from post position 10. Not good. However, most of the early speed in this race will scratch out as "Also Eligibles," leaving just the #7 who is an Early on turf. Those two should clear the field and be on the lead down the backstretch. At 12-1, #7 is also lightly raced and returning in 22 days after a credible 4th place finish in a 12-horse field on GP's turf. Can one of them hang on and win? The #11 (4-1) also interests me. He's a Sustained with a good late kick who seems to have found a home on turf. The #12, #9 and #3 are dismal with a combined record of 3 for 61.

So, the plan is to make small win bets on #7 and #10 if they have double-digits odds at post; play a small exacta box with #7, #10, and #11; and play a bigger exacta #11 over #7 and #10 and backwheel it. If one of my Earlies win, I don't think the other will run second, but it could happen so that's why I'll box them.

Of course, they could all run out of the money, too. :rolleyes:

Gp r10
 

Thanks for posting this race Mick. Me I like the Dec 6 Tandem race. The 1-5-6-7 come out of this race. A ton of speed even with the scratches. I think the 7 is going to get caught up in the speed dual. So I like 5-6. And box a 1-5-6 ex. box as the 1 is ML 20/1.

Bob

The #10 went off at 45-1 and the #7 at 32-1. They broke well, saved ground around the clubhouse turn and followed #1 down the backstretch. The #7 made a move on the turn, had a short lead at the head of the stretch and didn't give it up until the last furlong. Short of cashing a ticket, that's about all I could ask from those two longshots. My third horse, #11 (2-1), showed a nice turn of foot late and won, cruising to the wire.

That was fun and I appreciated Bob's comments. He was right in that the pace was a bit too fast for my Earlies. After 4 furlongs, the leader was :47 and change and I needed something more like :48 and a few ticks.

GP race
 

Mick, did you notice that the 11 was the only horse that had all 4 numbers.
While I do not play Turf races this horse should win better than 50 % of the time.
Rmath

rmath, could you please share what "...all 4 numbers" refers to.

Maybe PL, CSR,rX1 and TE?

The 4 numbers refer to PL,BPP,CSR,VDC ranks on the RX screen. Horse that have a ranking in all 4 factors are a prime win horses. In the last 100 races I capped 66 were won by a horse with all 4 numbers. Another 13 were won by horses with 3 numbers.
Tim

Yes, sir, I did. You taught me well. I'm always looking for them.

Thanks
 

Thanks LT1.
I left out which ratings I was refering to , just to see if anyone was curious enough to ask.
rmath

Mick, It is always nice to see my efforts were not in vain.
You always did pay close attention to what ever we were discussing.

HAPPY NEW YEAR to everyone.

Rmath

And here's the chart to close things out. At the stretch call, I was hoping #7 had something left for that last furlong, but alas, no. I had a win bet on him and exactas with #11, as I said previously. But the pace had taken too much out of him.

Happy New Year, Richard.

And for the new members who don't know Richard, he's something special. Doc Sartin wrote him multiple times in the Follow Ups with his W-2Gs published.

You right Rich there usually are very few if any follow up questions, on some great post, which really surprises me. To echo Micks' statement I've known Rich for almost 30 yrs and he is a proven winner. Not only that but he is a class act always willing to help others. Keep up the good work Rich. Happy New Year to you and your family.
Tim

Happy
 

Hello Richard

Thank you for all your great research , it's always a pleasure to see your work pay off
Happy 2019
Bill

Whoops forgot these were not the ones :(

Off topic
 

sorry, guys if I posted this in the wrong area, but have a question. With the new Bris format how are you getting the PL (Profit Line) into the RDSS software?


Bob

Hi Bob. That's a question only Ted can answer. As for me I get the BPP #S from their pps and the Profit Line #s from Twin Spires classic grid.
Tim

Hi, Bob.

I posted a couple of screenshots on this thread to show where to find them on the new Twinspires interface:
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...t=11990&page=3

All you need is a Twinspires account. No bets required. On the plus side of the ledger, both numbers are there and free. On the minus side, they are in different locations and a hassle to glean if you're including them in a spreadsheet, like I do from time to time.

Thanks
 

Mick,

I have heard that they have had over 1,000 complaints on the new format.


Bob

I haven't found anybody on any site who likes it. I've been e mailing them any getting the usual bs answers until my last 1 when the girl taking my complaint forwarded up the ladder. Doubt it will do any good but we can hope. When they do away with the classic format that site will be a disaster.
Tim

RDSS fetches ProfitLine/PL and BRIS Prime Power/BPP (in an 'under-construction' version) data from the back-end server (non-visual) of Twinspires Mobile the same way your web browser does. The front-end visual User Interface has changed, and not for the better. The back-end is unaffected.

Ted

Thanks
 

Thanks Guys for the nice compliments.
I believe that Doc & Jimmy would want us to all share our knowledge with anyone willing to learn.

HAPPY NEW YEAR to everyone at PaceandCap

Rmath

Hello Richard,

They sure did, Both Doc and Jimmy were very supportive of Pace and Cap
They believed in Ted, Richie P, and I. The object of P/C would be that we would continue the follow-up, Its always been- "friends helping friends win."

Happy New Year

Rest assured all you good teachers,

The thread was read and appreciated by this novice. I was slow to ask because I was thinking I had seen the "unknown to me" information elsewhere. But, "fasthorses" beat me to it.Then, "Lt1" quickly answered.

The last 100 race stats from Tim were a crucial bonus. I've got that 66% and 13% burned into memory. I also printed the entire thread for future study.

The only remaining question for me is post #3 by "mick" where exotic betting terminology is used. What is:

1) "a small exacta box"
2) "a bigger exacta box"
3) "a backwheel"

Still a little hesitant to ask because I should be able to find it elewhere, but I do value any gracious help provided.

Thank you in advance,
Vic

Thanks to all of you. Never mind on my questions. I found the answers on Twin Spires: "10 Ways to Bet." Got it printed for reference. Good to go now on that issue.