Contest Theory
 

I wanted to start a conversation about contest play, as I know some here have some interest in it. I don’t claim to be an expert, but I have some ideas to share if people are interested.

I pretty much only play low roller tournaments at Saratoga but I would like to hear your ideas.

Interested
 

Hello Jeebs,

Like to hear about your tournament game theory.I myself play in live money bank tournaments like the BCBC, Santa Anita cash games, etc

Thanks,

Paul

Jeebs, I would be very interested in your thoughts.

Mike

A primer to start off...
 

To understand a live horse racing contest, it helps to have experience with poker tournaments. In casinos and online, Texas Hold’em is still the preferred game of choice. While there are other variations of poker out there, this particular variation is contested on a cash game level (playing for profit) and a tournament level (all players given x number of chips at a specified buy-in, only top x players cash, with the prize pool top heavy at say the top 4-5 players).

Whereas in a live cash game of poker, players are best served playing “premium” starting hands (ie a pair of Aces, Ace-King suited, pair of Kings, etc) with +EV and avoiding the junk, tournament poker is different. Why so? Because unlike a cash game, the blinds (forced bets in an early position post flop) in a tournament increase after a certain amount of time (usually every 15-20 minutes in a casino, although there are formats that can go as long as 2 hours!) At a certain point, a forced bet known as an ante is put into play for all players on all hands. Because the price of playing poker increases every so often, waiting for only premium hands to play is not an optimal strategy for increasing your tournament chip stack. In fact, if you play your cards too tight, it is possible for the blinds and antes to consume your tournament chip stack!

Since blinds increase after a finite period passes, the name of the game at the onset is building the tournament chip stack. While conservative play early on is OK, survival at the tournament table eventually requires one to open up their playable range of starting hands. These stages where the range of hands expand to adjust to the conditions of the tournament are known as “inflection points”. To accumulate chips, you need to be involved in lots of pots - and win a decent majority of them! Otherwise, you risk getting to a certain point in the tournament where your stack is short, and your hand range is at its max. In other words, waiting for premium, optimal opportunities is out the window at this point. Where earlier, you might not consider playing a hand like Ace-Deuce, that same hand late when the blinds and antes are eating you alive might look like gold. Are you likely a longshot? Definitely. However, if the perfect storm hits (multiple callers, favorable board post-flop), your Hail Mary throw may reach the end zone and bring you back in the game, ready to make a run!

So you’re probably wondering: what the heck does this have to do with racing contests? It has a lot to do with it! I’ll leave this here for discussion/questions/digestion and I’ll go into deeper thought another time!

The live contest...
 

Live contests consist of different prize structures, buy-in amounts, and field size. The bigger the contest field, the less margin there is for error. After all, it’s easier to leap frog 10 opponents in a 45 player contest than it is to leapfrog 30 in a 100 player tilt. The greater the prize structure and buy-in, the greater chance that you will be competing with skilled horseplayers and contest experts. Most of these people are sharp handicappers in their own right, and can adapt to most situations that a contest can throw at them. After all, horse races are a dynamic event governed by many variables.

Preparation is key. While one can occasionally get lucky handicapping on the fly, being prepared with your handicapping - having knowledge of each race, having knowledge of your contenders and estimated chances of success, being able to assess your personal confidence level in each race, and attempting to get some idea as to how the contest races could flow based on your personal assessments - will put you on a more level playing field with the sharpies.

Having an open mind is also critical, because the dynamic nature of a contest can render an initial game plan dead in the water after just one race. Being able to adjust to adversity and avoiding the pitfalls of getting down on oneself will go a long way in improving one’s contest game.

First thing to remember in a live contest: Everybody begins on equal footing on the leaderboard. That said, I have no problem with casting a wide range of contenders if necessary. If I feel that the favorite at even money is unbeatable, there’s no point in fighting City Hall. Use the favorite and take what you may believe are the free points (dollars). A $7 contest horse is just as important as a $7 contest horse later down the road - they add up! I don’t care if the chalk is my best play or if a 30-1 bomber is my best opening play - wherever my handicapping takes me on the outset is where I go. I watch the race being run, accept the outcome, and make changes should conditions permit.

If you collect W/P points on the first contest race, congrats! If not, then it’s time to regroup. As each contest race is run, you lose bullets to fire, so if you’re playing at the top of the leaderboard, or in general contention, you have full use of all the horses in a race. Eating a 6/5 chalk in the middle stages while in striking distance of the contest leader might not move you up the leaderboard, but it will likely maintain your position absent from a bomber clunking up for 2nd, which is important since you’re one bullet closer to running out of ammo. On the other hand, if you haven’t had a good day - you’ve let horses slip by you at decent prices, or you can’t seem to pick a scab, let alone a winner - you’re experiencing the joys of the inflection point. The obvious 6/5’s, 2-1’s, and 4-1’s are suddenly of no help to you. Sure, they may still earn you points, but you’re not going to give yourself the chance to make a move. You now have to play horses that you otherwise wouldn’t bother with, even if their form is so suspect, you’d question whether or not they were in form to win a fixed race! As your bullets and contest standing shrink more and more, you are on the fast track to the “dead” zone, where your only chance at any salvation (or saving face) is throwing a dart at the longest shot in the race, and hoping for a miracle. There’s no handicapping necessary at that point. Just heave it at the end zone and hope for a score.

Having an understanding of the race class/conditions helps in identifying potential spots where an inflection point may occur in the form of price horses. Sometimes, the “feel” (or lack thereof) is enough of a clue where it can tip off a chaos race. Same thing goes for being able to verbalize the race based on the chosen pacelines. If the top contender(s) lack a truly usable line, proceed with caution. Anticipating the possible inflection points of a racing contest is part of why it is crucial to prepare ahead of time. A typical live contest online consists of a garden variety of race types: maidens, claimers, allowance, stakes - all at different tracks and across various surfaces and distances. Depending on the horses in a race, the information will either be straight forward, or littered with unknowns. If you’re unable to adequately verbalize a specific race or races, chances are, others are probably having the same difficulty. That’s where decisions are made - in the trenches.

It’s easy for a horseplayer to get lazy in these situations and try to navigate around such races in the safest way possible, and that’s typically by taking favorites, or the likely non-favorites. If your opposition is going to do one thing, you’re best off doing the opposite. This is a textbook situation of throwing conventional handicapping out the window, and anti-handicapping with long odds runners whose data is unappealing to most. If you’re woefully behind, you again likely have no choice but to take this kind of runner anyway. If you have a pulse, this is a sure fire opportunity to capitalize on the inefficiency of the contest crowd. Just remember, you’re playing a low/negative EV runner not on its merits (or lack of merits), but because nobody will likely touch the runner.

The next post will cover endgame strategy.

Good stuff Jeebs and enjoying your posts. Your correct in that there is many similarities to Texas Hold Them & poker.


In any short contest of a one day event there isn't much time to adjust and you can quickly be taken out of your game. With a three day event one can stick to their game plan longer.


It pays to save a bullet for the last race as some run out of ammo early. Out of 5 events I was 6th in one and 7th in another. At that point you must make a decision to try to pad your score and get a payoff ( top 5) or go for the win. Both times I went for the win. I figured there are many contest to come as its early in the year so go for it, additionally both of the last races were ugly type race so they set up for a killer price. Its surprising funny how the most ugly race the public will pick a favorite and it'll win. Perhaps inside money.


There is definitely a learning curve to contests verses regular play. No matter how ugly a horse is and a bomb wins there are several that have it. You are correct in that its a game changer. Especially if its early in the contest, if it comes late there isn't much one can do about it as there aren't many races or choices left.


Mitch44

Macro outlook
 

Contest players are well served reading this gem from Richard (rdiam):

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?p=115020

I invited Dr. Anthony Trezza, a prominent contest player, to come here to share his thoughts and experience on the topic. Dr. Trezza has won or cashed in many major online and live contests, and has qualified for the NHC multiple times. Please give a warm welcome to Dr. Trezza and feel free to pick his brain. His user handle is “youare2020”.

Hello Dr. Trezza and welcome to Pace and Cap.


Do you play multiple entries? How often? And if so what are your strategy for each entry? They seem to be beating me by multiple entries.


Mitch44

Endgame
 

By the middle stages of a contest, you will be in one of three positions: top percentile of the leaderboard, middle percentile, or bottom percentile. How you play from this point forward in a live contest will usually be dictated by your position in the contest.

Remember how I discussed inflection points earlier? In poker, chips have a decreasing marginal utility. As blinds and antes go up, the size of your stack ultimately dictates your moves. In tournament poker, prominent pro Dan Harrington popularized a metric known as the “M-ratio”, which takes into account an individual player’s chip stack size, blinds and antes, and the number of players at the table. The higher the M-ratio, the more conservative you can be. However, if the M-ratio gets too low, you will be forced to gamble your chips in what would normally be a negative value situation if your stack was at full strength. A more definitive explanation of M-ratios can be found from a basic web search, or by reading Mr. Harrington’s book series “Harrington on Hold’em” which is available on Amazon and other booksellers.

In a horse racing contest, favorites have a decreased marginal utility the farther behind you are, and the later the stage of the contest. If you are in the 2nd or bottom flights on the leaderboard, favorites will only help add points to your tally, but not enough where you are able to overcome the disadvantage of playing from behind. Even if a favorite is a dreaded “mortal lock” to win, they still lose between 60-70 percent of the time. From a wagering value standpoint, unless your assessment of their winning chances is unusually high, favorites are typically a net negative proposition. You’re best served trying to fish out the horses in that 60-70 percent subset that are not favored and determine an inefficiency in the parimutuel, and subsequently, the contest market.

Horses in the middle odds range (let’s say 5-1 to 10-1) are kind of the sweet spot if you will. They have merits that are not always as obvious to the public’s eye and often go off at inflated odds due to the overzealous nature of the public supporting a favorite. For a contestant stuck in the middle and bottom tiers of the standings, these runners can be solid gold - that is, if you can catch them. Even if there are very little, if any, virtues to support such a horse on paper, following the money and taking a guess that the horse is likely to be ignored by the contest players can pay dividends. It is these middle odds runners that often pad contest scores rather than a dart throw cap odds bomb. When Rocky Balboa was hit so hard, that he saw three of his opponent, his corner’s advice was to hit the one in the middle. Since contest players can get married to chalk or cap runners, the mid price runners get overlooked.

Just like favorites, the utility of these runners diminishes near the end of a contest, especially if you only fall farther behind. Eventually, you are forced to accept as possible plays, the horses who are “super wild ass guesses” or as Mitch44 refers to them as, “SWAG” horses. These are the long odds runners that sometimes are so ignored, that they trigger a contest’s odds cap. Unless you are willing to wave a white flag, the final couple of races when you are playing from way behind is your last chance to throw caution out the window. However, the farther behind you are, the utility of the longshots can decrease based on the fact that other contestants playing from behind will be likely doing the same exact thing. If you can hit that $64 capper, expect a gaggle of players to have joined you. While you will leapfrog over many who either whiffed or simply played conservatively, those ahead of you that also tapped that horse will still be ahead of you. Unless you are super lucky and suddenly string together a run of high price or cap horses at the end, you will usually draw dead when too many people are still ahead of you. The super lucky situation of stringing those chaos horses together happens very seldom.

Now, what if you’re in the top flight? What are your options?

Stay tuned...

Monkey is blind sided by blind squirrels.

The monkey wasn't happy camper after reading this summary of the free roll contest he lost Saturday. Talk about luck and Bill V.'s "its always the 4 horse" is absolutely right. What makes this even more hilarious is the Monkey's favorite numbers are 4 & 8 as I was born 8/8/44.

The below link provides the winning formula on how to win a handicapping contest.


https://blog.horsetourneys.com/2019/...5-7/#more-5375

Our laugh of the day,

Mitch44