Anaylize This 9th Ct Friday
 

I thought this was an interesting race to post.It's a 6.5 fur race 7500nw1(6mo)and all of the horses had CT lines to put in.I would just like an anaylsis of the horses I have entered and how you would go about weeding it down to your bets.I FEEL THIS WILL HELP ME TO BETTER UNDERSTAND WHAT THE HECK I SHOULD BE DOING.Thanks in advance Jeff

next screen

next shot

last one.

Just a Suggestion
 

Jeff, I know we all put up screens differently. Richie puts the program number in, etc. I usually put the Horses first 4 letters of his name followed by a number. This designates the paceline I selected for the horse. People who post Speculator screens don't have to do that since the paceline number is already there.

I think this would make it easier for people to make comments on the horses you entered in Energy after knowing which paceline was used.

Terms
 

Terms is lowest Total Energy, highest UXR, and unless everything falls apart in front of him that MUV is way high for 6.5 furlongs. Jeff according to your readouts he is a one run deep closer.

Thanks you
 

Thanks houndog
Sorry Jeff

Bill,No need to say sorry I didnt mean it the way it was posted.I wanted to just keep it for energy on this post.Im really struggling big time now and it's time for me to either s*** or get off the pot.

Here are the lines I used

COBBLE-2
TERMS-1
FOOL-1
WEE-1
ACT-1

I was trying to find a race that I dont have to go back more than 3 lines as Brohammer suggests.

Houndog,Gary is helping me by going over the Brohammer book and in the section Races Within A Race he says A ONE RUN CLOSER ,A HORSE POSSESING ONLY A STRONG THIRD FRACTION IS THE WORST KIND OF PACE SELECTION.

Bill and Jeff I didn't mean to make it sound that way. Everyone has different ways of posting screens, and Jeff let me know in a latter post what pacelines he used. I didn't want to come off sounding like a wise guy. I am sorry about that.

Bill,I apologize for putting that in the post,believe me no harm was intended just my stupidity.Jeff

Houndog,No I dont think that way you made a good point about putting pacelines used

Fool looks to have a significant early advantage by virtue of his EMUV number in this match-up. Also lowest UXR and Highest Total Energy. Your variegate predictor and paragons and EXDC Match-Up are all in agreement.

Thanks for the assessment,Fool's morning line is 12-1.This one might be a play at some good odds.Jeff

Warning: Don't look at this, Jeff, if you only want to see the race via Energy!

Using other programs I've got six of the eight entrants as solid contenders by Total Energy and TPR.

This looks like a good betting race.

If #4 Fooler doesn't win on or near the front end at 12-1,

then #7 Wee David might catch him in the stretch at 6-1.

It'll be interesting to see this race. Looks like at least a four horse pace duel.

#6 Fredlea is the only Sustained horse and might pick up the pieces, but at 5/2 I'd only use him in the second and third spot, especially with that time off.

And there are some other groovy things about Wee David that won't show up on readouts:

• Good trainer for this situation
• Should do well if the track isn't fast
• Best name :>)

Jeff:

First, look to see if Terms will really be that far back. If so, I would toss it. Low Med and high Lex will not work here. 5.96 MUV is virtually impossible to overcome. Fool appears to have an early advantage. The other three are closely matched. Wee has a slight advantage in the third fraction. I would call the race Fool, Wee, Act.

Gary

Gary Thanks.Jeff

Lightly Raced 9 year old
 

The #6 Fredlea should be well rested coming off of a 924 day layoff.

For Jeff
 

Jeff I'm sorry but you know me
I can't help but have some fun

Act, Wee Fool !
act wee fool!
"EVERYBODY PLAYS THE FOOL":)

I did the race on Spec 160
My bets are the 4 and 8
I made a video of my work of the race
I will do the whole race in just over 4 minutes
while I played the Main Ingredients
hit from 1974 EVERYBODY PLAYS THE FOOL
http://bindfold.com/images/EverybodyJeff.wmv
This is for you Jeff

"And now you cry but when you do
next time around someone cries for you"

Bill,THAT WAS GREAT THANKS,I liked that tune.I agree with you on the 4 & 8that 121 that the 7 is carrying bothers me.Jeff

Bill, love the video and the bet. I really don't need to work the race because your and Jeff's screenshots tells the whole story. #4 Fooler and #8 Action Tonight are the ones for me also.

I know I shouldnt over analyize but here I go again.The only horse that bothers me not to win but to hurt Fooler's chances of getting to the front is the 5 Wild Whitney.The only reason I say this is because it was just claimed by Scott Lake and we all know what he is capable of doing with a horse.Jeff

careful of the "Fooler" # 4
 

my opinion is that the 4 ( fooler) is lucky to hit the board tonight.

attaching a screen shot of it's pp's.

the last 2 lines on the bottom are the only other time showing where the horse had 2 good races in a row ( timespan 16 days). what happened after that? He went into a layoff that lasted 4 months to regroup himself from those ( for him) strenuous efforts.

coming into tonight's race he has run 2 of his 3 best races showing back to back ( in a 3 week span) and now comes into race 3 in the cycle off only 2 weeks. You can only squeeze a lemon so much til it runs dry man.

no way Jose. In my opinion this is a horse in need of a break.

btw WHERE is Mr. Hiraldo ? won both races yet tonight he is replaced by 2/50 jock. ?????

beware. writing is on the wall.

screen shot

oh
 

Very good analysis Rich
interesting look at the race
what Doc calls
"work before even turning on the computer "

take a wild guess
 

who the ONLY scratch in the race is?

Yup " Fooler"

I know nobody is gonna believe I didnt know that before I posted the above but I really didnt man.

it's right there in the pp's for all to see. the announced change of jock to a total nobody was the final nail in his coffin amigo's.

Richie,Just to let you know Hiraldo is no great shakes either.The reason the trainer was using Lopez was that he is a 7 pound bug and therefore the horse would get in at 114 instead of 121.The trainer of Fooler is a shrewed one and is 24% win+ners out of 83 tries.He is one of the better ones up there.Jeff

Well now I will go with Action Tonight in a one horse win betting situation.Jeff

Synergism

Pino,Back to the old standby Synergism,I like the way you did that.Jeff

Well guys I wasnt going to mention this but tomorrow I HIT THE BIG 55.So if you all dont mind I will name this race THE JEFF OLD MAN BIRTHDAY PURSE.If any of you could give an extra yell for the 8 I sure would appreciate it.

Rich who would have thought you would give a 2nd thought to a jockey

you have come a long way

Since Im cutting out ex's for awhile I will play the pick 3

7TH-1,7

8TH-2,5,6

9TH-8

TOTAL-$12.OO

Thanks Richie
 

Richie good observation on Fooler. Probably the 9 year old off of a 924 day layoff will win.

Anyhow I will go with #7 and #8.

Hey Happy Birthday Jeff!!

Many many more and make them all healthy too!

love,
Richie

Richie,Thanks for the wishes,I really crapped out on that one.For that 2 horse I dont think I could have gotten him any higher off of his last 2 races.Jeff

I think this shows it's tough playing CT with a computer program.You have the 7& 8 running against 46 and change 2nd calls and then you have the 2 running against 48 1\5 .Tough game here ,even using just the match up it would be hard..Jeff

Jeff:

One final thought on the 9th at CT. I was wondering about paceline selection on Terms. The horse seems to be a virtual "need to lead" early type horse and the lone early in the race. Looking at the past performances the horse only wins on the lead or very, very close to the lead. Otherwise, the horse folds. Was the last line the best line, especially when the horse was not on or very close to the lead? Look at where the horse did its best running (6.5f at CT, same as this race). Since the horse looks like it is coming in to form wouldn't it have been better to use a line where the horse was on the lead or very, very close to the lead in order to give it a fair chance in the program?

Gary

Gary,YOU HIT THE NAIL RIGHT ON THE HEAD,this is my problem.In looking at the horses last 4 races the horse has been competeing against a half mile call of 48.1.You would have to go back to almost last year to get races where he ran against a 47.The 7&8 have been running against 46& change so therefore you wont show the 2 as a early horse.How do you combat this?Im going to see if Bill can put this horse up.Jeff

Pace lines
 

Here are the pacelines from CT714race9
Spec160 original/adjusted