SARATOGA 8/11 race 7
 

handicapping SAR 8/11 race 7, what line you use and what you pick,

horse 5 and 6 is MTO enter
raymond

horse 1-5

horse 6-10

horse 11-12

can some one help explain this race condition,

thank you
raymond

1 L 2
2 L 1 Unk. Factor, only 2 routes
3 L 5 Toss, gets much faster pace in here & prefers slower pace and longer
4 L 1
5 MTO Toss
6 MTO Toss
7 L 3
8 L 2
9 L 1
10 L 1 UNK. Factor, dirt horses tries turf for 1st time.
11 L 1 UNK. Factor, only 2 turf & only 1 route
12 L 1 Unk. Factor, only 2 at dis. & surface

Typical 3 yr. old race with multiple UNKNOWN FACTORS and not a prime betting opportunity.

Top contenders, no order: 2-4-10-11-12

Final picks after scratches.

Mitch44

1%
 

1 0

2 0

3 Last Line

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

8 0

9 Last Line

10 0

11 0

12 0

Selections: 3 & 9

Interesting selection for the #1 with L2 - I would have thought recency and track/surface would take priority for most in line selection- can I ask what prompts that L2? Distance is a factor I see- but going with "capping" angles L1 is a "not typical of previous races" Just curious. Thanks.

Hanger;

I follow Sartin guidelines of best of the last 3 at a similar distance (within 1 Furlong) and similar surface. To determine the best I use the Perceptor rating which is to the far right of the horses chart.

Line #2 is within 1/2 F of today's distance, is on the turf which is the same surface for the race today (actually tomorrow) and the best Perceptor. I pay no attention to to number of days of line or class.
Mitch44

That makes sense, and similar to what I expected with the Perceptor there. Best of last 3 is the key there, I usually forget that and focus more on the surface/track than I really should.
THank you Mitch

I agree with the choice of L2 for the #1. It's recent and it's the best of the last 3. Remember we are only talking paceline selection at this time. There are handicapping factors that will deal with the horses last line but they are different from PL selection.
Tim

1: L2
2: L3
3: L3
4: L3
5: L3
6: L3
7: L1
8: L3
9: L2
10: L1
11: L1
12: L1

I show lines for the 2 MTO horses strictly as an exercise. Obviously it makes no sense to select a turf line for an MTO horse.

Scratches:

The 5-6 & 7 have scratched.

Mitch44

my win contenders is 2,4,9,11,12

my bet is win=2,12 EX 2,12w2,4,9,11,12

Good luck
raymond

My picks are 4-9-11.

Of the 14 races in my model at this distance 13 have been top 4 POR horses and 12 of the 14 have been top EPR and TPR.

Win horses are 4 and 9. Place horses are the 11 and 12

My contender's are:
2-4-10-11-12

My final picks are:
10-11-2

Mitch44

My pacelines:

1 -- try Line 2 (june 25) and Line 3 (june 12), second time Lasix, stretching out, but lowest ranked jockey and trainer in field

2 -- try Line 1 (july 17) and Line 3 (may 28): positive switch to Saez, stretching out, no works since raced 25 days ago

3 -- Line 1 (july 16): strong final fraction, Jose Ortiz tops in field, but speed rating slower than others

4 -- Line 1 (june 25): stretching out, weak first fraction

5 -- SCRATCHED

6 -- SCRATCHED

7 -- SCRATCHED

8 -- Line 1 (may 28): top trainer in field, trainer/jockey combo hot, stretching out, speed rating slower than others

9 -- Try Line 1 (july 5) and Line 2 (may 20):

10 -- Line 1 (june 25): stretching out, positive jock switch to Santana, but first time on grass, poor grass pedigree, but top speed rating (on dirt) in race

11 -- Line 1 (june 26): lightly raced, second time lasix, excellent workout pattern, strong final fraction, but stretching out, weak first fraction, trainer is cold

12 -- Line 1 (june 5): positive jock switch to Gaffalione, should get pressing trip, but stretching out

Matchup: 1 out early, pressed by 8, with 4,9,10,12 coming on midrace, and 3,11 closing

Betting strategy: win bets 9,10, ex 4/10,11,12, ex 11/1,2,3,4,10,12...worried about the 12, but can't bet them all...(my rule of thumb is no more than half the field as win contenders, so max four win contenders in nine horse field)

Good luck

Richard

best contenders: 1,2,11
secondary contenders: 4,9,12

I mis-stated the model info. It was for the much more often run distance of 8.5 f on the turf, there being only 2, 9F turf races in my model. however, there is strength in these numbers at almost every distance. At 8 furlongs on the turf 13/15 winners came from the top 3 POR horses.

So no change in my choices for this race.

10-11-2-4 finish

Great pick!

Primary race put up;
W,P S, EX and Tri had it cold.

COMPLETED:4f00b-83ba2
SAR
#7 $5 Win 2, 10, 11 none $15.00 $74.00+ $59.00

Mitch44

This put up race led me to look at the race prior and after;
I didn't play the EX or Tri in 6th race but had it cold also.
I like the DD for race 7 & 8 and played it.
Also played a $1 P3 and it payed better than the EX or Tri's.
All picks were by "The Monkey" dart specials.

Quit after the P3 hit for the day, got to feed "Monkey" his bananas.

COMPLETED:8ff5c-986cd SAR#8$2 Win 3 none $2.00 $0.00- $2.00
COMPLETED:0be24-42f65 SAR#8 $5 Win 4 none $5.00 $32.00+ $27.00
COMPLETED:4f00b-83ba2 SAR#7$5 Win 2, 10, 11 none $15.00 $74.00+ $59.00
COMPLETED:8bfd4-b1a4f SAR#7$4 Double 2, 10, WT, 2 none $8.00 $0.00- $8.00
COMPLETED:3a536-b8e3e SAR #7$ 4 Double 2, 10, 11, WT, 4 none $12.00 $451.00+ $439.00
COMPLETED:283cb-0e306 SAR# 6 $5 Win 2, 5, 6 none $15.00 $37.00+ $22.00
COMPLETED:a34e2-4c089 SAR#6 $1 Pick-3 2, 5, 6, WT, 2, 10, 11, WT, 2, 4 none $18.00 $670.00 + $652.00

Total (accepted wagers): $75.00 $1,264.00 + $1,189.00
Pending Wagers: $0.00

Mitch44

Wow outstanding work Mitch. Rumor has it that the monkey completed a course on fundamentals. Can you confirm that?.
Tim

Hey Mitch does " the monkey" use the fulcrum in his contender selection. LOL
Congrats on your excellent 3 race run
Darryl

Congrats to Mitch and Richard for the outstanding works come up with the big winner #10

raymond

Very nice call on the #10 Richard. Congrats and all my best going forward.

Mitch44

Thanks Ray.

Mitch44

Yes Tim he did complete that fundamental course but he did it back in the 1970 era much like you. Than around 1990 took the basic course in Sartin Pace handicapping.

The Monkey continues to stay abreast of current affairs and keeps an open mind to new things. Those who stop in this race get run over and crushed.

Mitch44

No he doesn't Darryl, he saw through that fog and misdirection long ago when it comes to the fulcrum.

Mitch44

Nice call Mitch and a big congratulations on a fantastic score.

Richie

Thanks Richie very much, us old timers keep doing well. This was my final tally/ summary:

Number of Bets 7
Win Percentage 71.43%
ROI 15.85
Wagered $75.00
Payoff $1,264.00
Profit/Loss $1,189.00
Now for positive reinforcement I'll take a couple days off.

Mitch44

Thanks
 

Appreciate you sharing your work. It is inspirational in the same or similar way as in the old PIRCO days.

Thanks

Cratman