Wow!
 

This is a race from Calder on Saturday that I lost.

I lost my win bet. I had the horse that placed at 18/1.

Jim worked the race with me afterwards and he showed me something that I HAVE to share here with you ok?

It is so far out of the realm of conventional capping it's ridiculous man. I called him up and asked if it was ok to post the race and try to explain what he showed me. He said " go ahead Rich".

I promise I will do my best to explain this concept. THIS is one of those things he does that can't be explained and people then label with a creative name like " voodoo" or " witchcraft".

I am going to show the pp's for every horse in the race right after supper and then lay it out.

This ain't voodoo man. It's the Matchup. I LOVE this.
Richie

Calder Saturday 8/19 Race 12
 

Here are the race conditions and distance. Also the pp's for the 1 horse

the 2 horse

the 3 horse

the 4 horse

the 5 horse

the 6 horse

the 7 horse

the 8 horse

starting off we scroll the horses and isentify running styles. To me there are 2of them.

1 horse - line 4 - 22.1 - 45.1 - 111.0 ( from the Meadowlands, a faster surface than Calder)

4 horse - line 2 - 22.4 - 46.0 - 112.4 - 127.4 - ( Today's track and distance)

I know that the Meadowlands line is faster BUT feel the 1 is definitely gonna be the lead horse today. The gap between him and the 4 at the 1c - 2c and STRETCH call are too great in my mind.

The 1 is the lead horse ( although NOT sure HOW fast the race will go. HONESTLY). I do NOT refer to track records, par time charts etc etc. Gotta go by "feel" and what my mind is telling me. ok

the 4 is now history and removed from consideration.

Eliminations
 

ok the 4 is gone. let's get rid of some others now

Since the rest of the horses are Calder guys the 2 fastest INCLUDING pace of race and Position and beaten lenghts are the

6 horse - last line - 21.4 - 45.3 - 112.4

8 horse - last line - 22.0 - 45.3 - 112.2 - 119.3

Let's keep them.

Eliminations:

2 horse - destroyed by the 8 horse in tandem 2 races back - out

3 horse - too slow and deep sustained style - out

4 horse eliminated by the 1 in " battle of the earlies"

5 horse - ridiculously slow - out

7 horse - slow roach - out

Ok left with the

1 - Early

6 - Presser

8 - Presser

the styles on the 6 and 8 can vary to sustained presser I guess. To be honest This is what I had and thought the 1 was a cinch. Bet him and watched him run 2nd at huge odds to the 6 . LOSS - sonofabitc*

here is the pp's for the 1 horse one more time - focus on his running style - pure need to lead early showing NO ability to FIGHT a horse if headed -

Please REMEMBER that last bit ok - if it is HEADED it shows nothing in it's pp's to show it will FIGHT. It NEEDS an open lead to WIN.

Keep an open mind NOW
 

ok here are the pp's for the winning 6 horse again - now look at his 1st fraction from the race - 21.4 -- ok now the leading 1 horse 1st fraction - 22.1

Hat's description of what happens now:

1) The 6 horse has a 2 tick advantage at the 1st call over the 1. Ok Rich subtract those 2 ticks from the 6's POSITION at the 1st call of HIS race and what POSITION does that put him in TODAY. Position - 5th take away 2 ticks - Position TODAY at 1st call - 3rd at worst

2) Now using the 6's paceline what did he do from his 1st call to 2nd call POSITIONALLY? went from 5th to 3rd - gain of 2 POSITIONS - ok if he is 3rd TODAY at 1c give him his 2 position gain and apply to TODAYS race.

1c- 3rd
2c - gain of 2 POSITIONS so is moving to the leader ( the 1 horse) NOW

3) Now we HAVE to remember from earlier that the leading 1 horse has NOT proven himself a FIGHTER ok? at the 2nd call he is being attacked by the 6 horse. Now move to the 6 horse's POSITION at the stretch call of the last race. he moves from 3rd at 2c to 2nd at stretch right? A GAIN of 1 position.

apply that gain to todays scenario and lo and behold the 6 at the STRETCH call has fought and PASSED the 1 horse.

The 6 in its race goes on to win and projecting to today it is projected to WIN today's matchup over the 1

the 8 horse
 

ok if you take the remaining contender and do the same matching you will see he does NOT match up like the 6 did.

TRY it.


here is the result chart . Look how the race actually ran POSITIONALLY compared to what Jim described.

I am sitting here with kinda chills typing this because for ME a light bulb went on when he did this with me ok? That's why I had to ask him if I can try and post it. I HAVE to attempt it.

THIS " thing" is at least one of the things he does that makes folks shake their heads and attach all kinds of words to it baby.

I have to practice this a LOT more but I actually SEE a bit of it man.

This ain't voodoo. It's Jim's matchup and now I am STARTING to see it. I can't believe it.

Jim I hope I made some kind of sense in describing the technique you are teaching me. **** I HAD to try and explain it out of RESPECT and appreciation for all you have done for me!

Sonofabitch if I saw this before the race I am still counting the cash Hat:)

Richie

Rich,

Great job in describing the race. You explained the race as I explained it
to you. You make me proud.
Sure the 1 horse paid more to place than the 6 horse paid to win, but you
throw away a ticket if you be the 1 to win, ask Rich.
By the way this isn't something made up, because I bet the 6 horse to win.

The Hat

Good refresher.

Horse, really, has NEVER had the lead in PP's, except breaking 1st out the gate, but fought for the lead.

Looks like different stress on a horse fighting in 2nd by a head/neck for the lead vs ACTUALLY HAVING the lead and fighting OFF another [want-to-lead] horse.

Being pressed vs being the presser.

2nd by a head is FIGHTING for the lead, NOT having the lead....there may be a pronounced difference.

Fighting for the lead, but not actually having it = on the Offensive.

Having the lead and fighting off want-the-lead horse = on the Defensive.

The best defense is a good offense? Defense wins championships?

Drafting, like bicyclist?

Harder when you are on top vs chasing something thats already established....maybe something to think about.

Like I said, lots of study material here with old MatchUp post.

It's only "old" if you have truly and thoroughly mastered it.

Reading THE HAT'S comments never gets tiring.

VoodooFan