Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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-   -   Arlington Park Sprint Handicap (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1518)

Houndog 08-25-2006 06:04 PM

Arlington Park Sprint Handicap
 
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A good race to handicap. Good quality and competitive. This is 8th race at Arlington for Saturday.

Houndog 08-25-2006 06:05 PM

Energy Generator
 
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Energy Generator with all entries in. Time to see who to toss.

Houndog 08-25-2006 06:07 PM

Energy Generator
 
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This is after eliminating some horses.

Houndog 08-25-2006 06:10 PM

Automatic Adjust
 
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I went back on Kelly's Landing and Gold Storm as I did not want to use the Calder lines. They were not competitive in that race anyhow.

Houndog 08-25-2006 06:12 PM

Match-Up Screens
 
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Here to me is the most important screen.

Houndog 08-25-2006 06:14 PM

Sort Screen
 
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The Sort Screen

Houndog 08-25-2006 06:15 PM

EXDC Match-Up
 
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Here is the EXDC Match-Up.

Houndog 08-25-2006 06:28 PM

Win Contenders
 
I will take Gold Storm and Kelly's Landing as my win contenders. Junior College really improved off of his last race and is lightly raced 4 year old. Although Coach Jimi Lee looks good I prefer Kelly's Landing because I do not think he need the lead.

Win #6 Kelly's Landing and #9 Gold Storm. (I want this horse to get the lead).

Use these with #3 Junior College for exotic players. If you want to go deeper in exotics #4 Level Playingfield and # 7 Rogue Scholar could be used in tri tickets since they will be coming late. I just do not see them winning because they are not in against front-running quitters. I see them to far out of it in the early stages to be considered as win contenders.

shoeless 08-25-2006 10:23 PM

Houndog,Gold fits that pattern Doc and Hat talk about horses with 0.00 muv's and not ranked 1st on paragon a being great bets.Jeff

partsnut 08-26-2006 09:26 AM

Jeff, you picked another interesting race here.
I ran the numbers and this is what I came up with.
I would go with the 8, 3 to win.
If I were to play an exacta, I would box 8, 3, 1

shoeless 08-26-2006 09:43 AM

Parts,Houndog picked this race I dont play Arlington.Jeff

RichieP 08-26-2006 11:53 AM

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Hi guys,

Michael I worked this race using Ted's software thats in development. Hope you don't mind if I post up a screen shot man.

I matched based on
1c - 22.1
2c - 44.3

This screen shows the TPR numbers alongside the e/l graph and ESP designations

Thanx and good luck on the race all!

Rich

Houndog 08-26-2006 12:07 PM

Glad you did
 
Actually, you picked a race that I was hoping you would do. I think this is a good race to illustrate Ted's new program because of the competitive field. You picked pretty much the same pacelines as I did for most of the horses. I did not go as far back on Level Playingfield, but it really doesn't matter as I tossed him also.

Richie, I am also very interested in any comments that you make concerning this version with Spec160 for example. For now what aspect of RDSS that you like better than Spec160? I am not trying to put you on the spot, but since you have worked with both extensively your opinions are most welcome. Thanks for picking this race to show RDSS.

admin 08-26-2006 12:48 PM

Race 8ABCS
 
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I like the 9Gold and 6Kelly but #2Coach
keeps hanging around
Win bets # 6 and 9
ExBox 6 -9 with 2

Houndog 08-26-2006 02:35 PM

Arlington Park Update
 
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Considering the scratches here are the new screens.

Houndog 08-26-2006 02:36 PM

Screen 2 MUV
 
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Screen 2 MUV

Houndog 08-26-2006 02:39 PM

Final Screen EXDC Match-UP
 
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My win contenders remain the same. Rogue Scholar is now the horse I wil use with Kelly's Landing and Gold Storm.

RichieP 08-26-2006 04:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Houndog
Richie, I am also very interested in any comments that you make concerning this version with Spec160 for example. For now what aspect of RDSS that you like better than Spec160? I am not trying to put you on the spot, but since you have worked with both extensively your opinions are most welcome. Thanks for picking this race to show RDSS.

Michael

2 words describe it man

1) TOOLS
2) TOOLS

The screens shown are barely a tip of the iceburg. There will be no comparison to what exists now with Spec when this is released hopefully by late fall

Rich

RichieP 08-26-2006 04:23 PM

Revised after scratches
 
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I had to redo the whole race after the 1 scratched he was the one I picked all my lines around


Revised " Primary" screen showing TPR with e/l graph and ESP


hope this is ok - the race has NOT run yet

ok good luck to all

back to the races :)
Rich

partsnut 08-26-2006 05:21 PM

Correction After Scratches
 
( 2, 8 ) Corrected After Scratches

admin 08-26-2006 05:52 PM

Exdc
 
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Quote:

Originally Posted by admin
I like the 9Gold and 6Kelly but #2Coach
keeps hanging around
Win bets # 6 and 9
ExBox 6 -9 with 2

Very Nice:) Thanks for asking about the race
It turned out very well

RichieP 08-26-2006 05:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by admin
Very Nice:) Thanks for asking about the race
It turned out very well

Bill and Michael

NICE going chaps :eek: seems to be a bit of a party going on here. LMAO

Bill you are amazing man - I am DEAD serious

Richie

admin 08-26-2006 06:00 PM

When RP talks I listen
Thanks Rich you are a great teacher

RichieP 08-26-2006 06:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by admin
When RP talks I listen
Thanks Rich you are a great teacher

seriously this ain't got NOTHING to do with me man.

YOU are amazing.

how the hell u switch your game to now using this apv-cr - ??? whatever the hell else u do :eek: and still CONSISTENTLY win is simply amazing.

I learn all the time from YOU

Rich

Houndog 08-26-2006 06:25 PM

Richie, when you revised the probable pace Gold Storm actually towers over the field with the pacelines selected. I did eventually use #2 Coach Jimi Lee in my exactas in part thanks to Bill pointing out that he was showing up in all the readouts. New stakes track was set when Gold Storm romped home in 108.1. Thanks Richie for doing this race as it really pointed out many aspects of the program.

admin 08-26-2006 07:16 PM

Apv Cr
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RichieP
seriously this ain't got NOTHING to do with me man.

YOU are amazing.

how the hell u switch your game to now using this apv-cr - ??? whatever the hell else u do :eek: and still CONSISTENTLY win is simply amazing.

I learn all the time from YOU

Rich

Rich here a a few bits of info I used for this race
Here is the Apv Cr
Code:


#1.  36.4%  1.01  Poor Apv ok Class - src. out
#2  57.4%  0.92  Contener good APV CR
#3  25.7%  1.00  Poor ApV  ok Class
#4  49.5%  0.82  OK APV OK Class needs help with readouts
#5  30.6%  0.87  Too low APV  out
#6  61.6%  0.92  Class of the field
#7  27.5%  0.89  see horse #5
#8  64.9%  0.95  Contender
#9  63.0%  0.92  Contender

I looked for the horse with the fastest RAW final time
I saw a few with 108.3
I also set a target second call number of 44
I only entered the 5 contenders from the APV-CR
and picked lines based on a 44 108.3 Pace

Bill

Houndog 08-26-2006 07:31 PM

The Chart
 
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Here is the chart with fractional times.

RichieP 08-26-2006 07:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by admin
Rich here a a few bits of info I used for this race
Here is the Apv Cr
Code:


#1.  36.4%  1.01  Poor Apv ok Class - src. out
#2  57.4%  0.92  Contener good APV CR
#3  25.7%  1.00  Poor ApV  ok Class
#4  49.5%  0.82  OK APV OK Class needs help with readouts
#5  30.6%  0.87  Too low APV  out
#6  61.6%  0.92  Class of the field
#7  27.5%  0.89  see horse #5
#8  64.9%  0.95  Contender
#9  63.0%  0.92  Contender

I looked for the horse with the fastest RAW final time
I saw a few with 108.3
I also set a target second call number of 44
I only entered the 5 contenders from the APV-CR
and picked lines based on a 44 108.3 Pace

Bill

Thanx so much Bill for showing this. Hey I have a sincere favor to ask. Can you do a kind of step by step of last night's " race of the week" ??

Showing all the steps YOU did.

I HAVE a total mental block on those real long distance marathons. I almost always LOSE them which is why i didnt post last night. I would have LOST again man. Pisses me off I cant lose the block.

I would REALLY appreciate the "leg up" on it when you have time

Rich

shoeless 08-27-2006 07:33 AM

Bill & Houndog ,Good job on that one.Keep an eye on those 0.00 Muv horses that dont show up first in Par A.Doc and Hat said these will come in more often than not and at prices.Jeff


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