2023 Kentucky Derby
 

Some way too early thoughts.

I do not normally like west coast horses coming east to run, but Practical Move looks like a really good deal at 10-1 morning line.

Does anyone have any thoughts on Two Phil's? I have never handicapped Turfway Park but his big win there last out kind of makes him a troubling unknown. Rapidly improving 3 year olds are the bane of handicappers, there is no real way to tell what their upside is.

Tapit Trice is a good looking horse as is Verifying, but since they were only a neck apart at Keeneland, I am not sure I understand why one is 5-1 and the other is 15-1... both have great connections, so is a neck difference really worth a three times difference in odds?

2023 Kentucky Derby
 

Not ready to seriously comment YET, about the pace projection of this famous yearly contest, BUT, the post draw as today and the probables did not get poor posts.

I welcome various projections from the members here.....I will be back with an evaluation either late Thursday, or mid afternoon Friday, so come on join us with your own evaluations.

I merged these 2 Kentucky Derby Threads started today.

Ted

At the old Derby List website, they held a contest each year for this spectacle, BUT it was not what you'd think: you had to predict the colt that would finish LAST...Many a year the "prize" (of being the one who did it) was not claimed at all because it is a tough thing to do.

Animal Kingdom's last KD prep ws there

Rich Strike also
 

Rich Strike's last prep was at the same track too and on Synthetic surface

But my main curiosity was the designated speed rating off its maiden claiming race at Churchill race track where it won by 17 lengths drawing away.

Bris race rating service gave Rich Strike a 85???

Attachment 51408

I doubt 22 will draw in, but it's LONE paceline would make it a contender

SA Derby winner OUT (Practical Move)and Cyclone Mischief IN...That is a bit of a shocker

Lord Miles now declared and his trainer suspended in an investigation of several horse deaths recently at Churchill Downs.

Continuar OUT
King Russell IN

Rumors, Forte may be scratched.

Can't recall such a Derby with so many last minute changes

This year looks wide open to me and RDSS is not helping much, I have way too many contenders in this race.

Skinner is out now as well. Down to 19 entrants.

Something looks wrong...
 

I just noticed on the BL/BL screen the numbers do not look correct.

11 Disarm should be a 7.0 BL Score, not a 0.5
21 Cyclon should be a 5.0 and
12a Jace's should be a 3.0

I do not recall the BL/BL screen ever being broken like this, is it the number of entrants that is messing it up?

THE BEST PACE OF RACE coming into this was the Santa Anita Derby, and initially it appeared that the top several finishers showed promise. NOW only one remains, the Japanese colt...BUT when one has a single line onto which to base this ones' ability, the possibility of One Race Wonder comes up. 1 2 3 5 14 15 22 all are improving. I had Skinner looking like the BEST of the improving colts before that scratch

Dan, the BL/BL numbers are correct. I spent some time just now going over them. Besides the fact that there are way too many horses listed to make sense, as you noted -

- the BLBL screen is sorted by the Primary Line Score (PLS) rank and whatever the BL score is, it cannot be higher than the line above it, so it is adjusted downwards to be in line with the PLS rank. When you move a horse to the Secondary Group, its factor ranks show what they were when it was in the Primary group.

- I am no longer explaining the formulas for anything in RDSS because onlookers simply use my explanations to help them duplicate RDSS/Sartin factors in their own software (though, I'm not going to take down old posted explanations). But your assessment of BL scores is not correct.

FWIW here are pacelines chosen by default auto-settings (your own paceline selections and mileage may vary). Scratches eliminated, and the #17 Japanese horse with one MEYdan line is demoted to Secondary:

Attachment 51411

The BL Scores reach 0 with the #8 horse Mage. All of the rest of the horses are ranked worse than it on PLS rank, so their BL Scores cannot be higher than 0.

I recommend you take out non-contenders to get more sense from the remaining horses. Traditionally, we require a 1st or 2nd place finish in a G1 or G2 Stakes as the first cut; check Total Energy, BLBL, Late, etc.

That's all I got so far - I haven't done a detailed analysis of this race yet.

Good luck!

Ted

Hey Ted,

Obviously RDSS is YOUR software, so if it is the way you want it, then it is correct.

It is not the same as Howard had it in previous versions of the software though, which is why I liked RDSS. In the old versions of the software from 90's, a 1 in the primary factors got a 3.5, a 2 got a 3.25, and a 3 got a 3, a 4 got a 2, and a 5th place ranking got a 1. This is pretty easy to verify as you mentioned in a previous post by simply putting in race numbers that show a horse with all 1's in primary factors, or 2's in primary factors, etc. so I am not giving anything away here.

The reason that the BL score is important the way Howard had it, is that a horse might not be able to win due to energy distribution, but its BL Score might make it the obvious place horse.

Now that I know you have a different way of calculating BL/BL than Howard, I can adjust my own numbers, but other people might not understand that the new software does things differently and it might be costly not knowing.

Thanks for the response,

Dan

One thing for sure, unless a choice here has very juicy odds, the Derby is not worth backing as too confusing. Exotic coverage would be FAR too expensive.

I understand your feedback about the points, however, I reiterate - the BL points formulas are UNCHANGED from what Howard provided in Val4. Someone can verify this if they really want, as we did in the early days when we sent Howard RDSS versus Val4 readouts for validation. RDSS may be my software, but it the original formulas are based on Sartin's software.

Ted

P.S. Check your PMs.

I agree, this is going to be an exciting race to watch, but I think I will pass on the betting as well.

With Practical Move out, I have to admit, I really like the japanese horse, #17 Derma Sotogake, based on the TM SRs. If you think trackmaster has any skill at all, Derma S. ran the top speed figure in the highest class race of all the runners. Without a north american race to get pace data off, I really do not feel comfortable betting him, but if ever a japanese horse were to win, he looks like the one.

Best of luck to everyone tomorrow,

Can only get down it to 6: Verifying, Tapit Thrice, Forte,Two Phils, Mandarin (22 post) and 14 Angel of Empire. Two Phils and Verify have good shots to get position early and Kingsbarns may be close but should fade. Sustained: Mandarin, Two Phils, Verify, Tapit, Forte, Angel of Empire. Oddly enough, Forte does NOT have a lock on this one in spite of being visibly impressive.

ONLY a single colt foreign trained EVER even hit the board...I am also concerned that mandarin may be a One Race Wonder.

Anyone else notice that #4 Confidence Game is the only horse with an 8 furlong workout since winning its last race the G2 Rebel. In fact the only horse with more than a 6f work that I could find. The time was 138 and change and race miles at CD have been run in the mid 136's so this was an extended work at a pretty nice pace. It was the only work at 8f that day.

Worth considering IMHO.

Good luck one and all.

#15 Forte scratched. Bruised hoof.


18 runners now.


Ted

2 5 14 3 22...HURRY UP or the field might be yet SMALLER!!

Everyone should be aware that your HOST, and RDSS creator, chose GIACOMO as his top Derby choice..BIG PRICE