Energy & Match-Up
 

Thanks to RichieP's and Jim "The Hat Bradshaws" excellent posts in the Match-Up area greater emphasis is being placed on the Match-Up as it should be. For my own part I intend to devote more time in pre-computer analysis with the match-up before entering them in Energy.

Originally it was my intention not to enter more than 4 or 5 horses in Energy. I believe by following the posts in the match-up area 3 to 4 horses is a reasonable goal. If I find myself looking at too many horses as win contenders I do not have a good grasp of this race and should pass. In the age of simulcasting passing races should not be an issue. I think you will find that you can get the race down to 2 to 3 horses in many cases.

By doing your analysis first and only then entering your true win contenders and appropriate pacelines and doing a comparison of your analysis and your Energy read-outs should improver your WIN%. It has always been my contention that Energy was designed to get you winners, but not necessarily place horses. One of the major contributor's to Energy was Jim Bradhaw, and as everyone on this board know's he is foremost a win bettor as he has often referred to the place horse as "ugly" horses.

Starting with Energy and the latter programs the "Match-Up" is there if you know where to look.

Match Up
 

Hello Houndog

Since my visit to Mr Bradshaw then talking to Doc
My wagering has me charged up once again
All I needed was another few races working with Richie
to blend it all together If I am tired or want to work
more than a few races, Validator or any of the programs with BLBL
from the TM download works very well now that my contenders are
just a few based on the match up steps
I still enjoy doing races with Energy
The hand entry helps me get a better feel for the times and the
pace that the leaders will set . I love entering a bunch of
22.2's and 45.0's and then watching the race and the calls
are the same 22.2 and 45. Its great for the confidence.
I agree with you and the creators of Energy
Mr Sartin and Mr Bradshaw. Enter a few horses
and the readouts are powerful

GS
Bill

Houndog,The obvious question for me is where to look in energy for the match up.Jeff

Houndog:

I am a long time Energy user and I can tell you that you are 100% correct. Energy absolutely works best when you have ONLY true contenders with representative lines in the computer. Then you will get a lot of winners and show horses. What Doc and The Hat always said was that one of your selections would win and the other would "fail" and come in third while the contra energy horse would run second.

Gary

Jeff:

I think the answer to your question is that you do the Matchup prior to entering data into the Energy program!

Gary

Gary,I thought Doc had said that the match up was in the energy program.Jeff

Energy and Match Up
 

At one of the early Energy Seminars Doc said Energy was the ultimate match up.

Enter all the horses and eliminate any with no one's or two's in any readout.

With all the horses entered it usually calls for the manual adjustment. As horses are eliminated the gap in total energy lessens and you sometimes need to rerun using the auto adjust.

Peter E

Important Energy Screen
 

Gary, Bill, and PeterE all gave great answers to your question. Jeff, I want to answer your question with a good example. Remember the AP race in the prior post. Anyhow I did much pre-analysis before the race and had a pretty good idea on how the race should set up. I noted running styles, how horses prefer to be positioned when they win, etc. Which horses need the lead to win, but can't get the lead today I could eliminate.

Anyhow this to me is the MOST important screen if you are looking for the Match-Up in Energy. When you really get familiar with this screen it is a great help in confirming your pre-analysis when entering horses in Energy. Gold Storm won this race.

Analysis
 

Gold Storm has a significant edge in the early stages in the race. He has a good advantage in F1 and also in EMUV on the Varius side of this screen. Also has the lowest UXR. Pretty much in agreement with the variegate predictor in this race. I did not show it but Gold was the 0.00 MUV horse and had 1's on the EP and FX sort. This would give you more confidence that Gold does have an advantage in the early stages in the race.

Some races in Energy don't line up as nicely as in this example, but many do. Gold Storm won at odds of 7-1. Your paragon A horse COJI ran second. Rogue is to far out of it to threaten these 2. When looking at Sustained horses like Rogue I would also take a look at Total Energy.

Houndog
 

thank you for you help with these readouts
I see in the SMUV readout or Sustained Match Up Varigate readout a pretty tight grouping No real stand out late.
is this correct ?
Bill

Houndog,Im glad you posted that because this is where I get screwed up big time.I see that Gold does have a big advantange on F1 but wouldnt you think because of his F2 and F3 fractions the other horses would overtake him.I think it's hard for me looking at times rather than beaten lengths.Jeff

Yes Bill I would agree with you on this. This does not help a Sustained horse like Rogue which does not have any major advantages in SMUV and also is highest in UXR. Rogue's total energy was only 3rd out of these 4. When the early horses have an advantage in total energy over sustained horses usually does not bode well for the sustaine types. Rogue finished last and never threatened. Actually the winner Gold was 4th in Total Energy out of these 4, but that early advantage is significant and cannot be discounred.

overtake
 

Jeff and Houndog

Jeff.I was thinking that since the SMUV readouts
were so tight would it be more of a case of a seperate battle
(using more energy) amonst them all late than Gold is using early
sort of like two races in one
Bill

F1 and F2
 

Good question and comment Jeff. Let's look at F1 first
Gold-35.31 Coji-34.55 Kelly-34.42. Gold has a .76 advantage over Coji and a .89 advantage over Kelly.

F2 Gold-33.18 Coji-33.72 Kelly-33.85 Coji has an advantage of .54 and Kelly has an advantage of .67 energy units, not enough to overtake Gold in this match-up. Also Gold may be able to conserve some of that energy for the latter stages of the race due to the big advantage he has early in the race. Hope this helps Jeff.

It seems though they have an advantage as well in the 3rd fraction that would overtake Gold.Im not trying to be a devil's advocate here just trying to understand using the match up with a computer.Jeff

3rd Fraction
 

Jeff, that is correct and is a judgement call. At the very least Gold should be one of your win contenders and I would take Coji as the second win contender if you are a 2 horse bettor. Kelly and Gold are not far apart in SMUV. If you box these 3 in an exacta it paid over $80.00. I just felt that with Gold Storm's advantage early in the race he could pass that advantage on to the latter portion of the race. He would not have to run as fast early in the race.

Houndog I see your point and Bill thanks as well.Jeff

Hi Jeff,

Doc stated that, in a sprint, a horse needs to make up twice as much energy in the third fraction as he is behind in the first fraction. In routes it is almost three times as much. In Houndog's example race, Gold was the pacesetter. Conji had a first fraction deficit of .76, Kell had a first fraction deficit of .89, and Rog3 had a first fraction deficit of 1.53. None of these horses had a third fraction advantage over Gold of even 1-to-1 (F1 deficit to F3 advantage). If Gold runs his race, and pacelines/contenders are correct, Gold should win easily. The trick to this "precision" analysis is in the match-up, where true contenders and "correct" pacelines are selected. Actually, I find that when I do the match-up particularly well, the contenders and pacelines tend to select themselves. These are the races to really "pounce" on, from a betting standpoint.

I truly hope this helps. If I can help in any way, please let me know.

Forecast

Forecast,Thanks I think I am putting too much emphasis on the 2nd fraction.Gary was telling me the same thing that you and Houndog said.Jeff

Gary was nice enough to hook up with me and show me how to use the match up using Energy.We hit 4 out of 5 races[im kind of slow doing the races] and a couple were double digit winners.Also in one race we had the top 3 finishers in order.He is really a good teacher and I see now where in the old seminar tapes Jim would say as long as you get the right contenders in the program it will take care of the rest.Jeff

Great Going!
 

Jeff, way to go. I can think of no better teacher of Energy and Aodds than Gary. He uses Energy the way it should be used and anyone could benefit from his teachings. Jeff, if you could tell us in what aspects of Energy that Gary helped you the most would be appreciated as it could help all Energy users. Feedback helps because I have also benefitted from posts other people have made on this topic.

Houndog,I think you would be a good teacher as well.Gary was showing me on the match up screen how to weed out contenders one at a time.Basically it was by looking at the 1st and 3rd fractions.I was putting too much emphasis on the 2nd fraction which is why I had trouble with the race you posted.Also he had me bet on two horses one for$3 dollars and the other $2 NO EXACTAS based on a $50 bankroll.His reasoning was if you cant double a small bankroll what makes you think you can do it with a larger one.We got our contenders by using the match up.I feel all of these things should help me boost up my confidence.Jeff

Houndog:

Thank you for the compliment. I love to share my handicapping thoughts with others. Jeff was a very good student. One of the concepts that I was explaining to him was not to over-think the race. Basically, just do the race. One other concept that I truly believe is that you may not be able to win a given race, but you can definitely win at the races. Reasoning is that anything can happen in any given race, but your handicapping skills will make you a winner over the long term.

Gary

Hi Gary and Jeff

I think that is a great way to work I step back about 4 times a year
and take a small voucher from my total bankroll
and just bet win $2 and $3 It really is a great feeling watching
that little voucher grow I found this exact method in an early follow up
and in the manual The Psychology of Winning
GS
Bill

Quote:

Originally Posted by forecast (Post 13279) Hi Jeff, Doc stated that, in a sprint, a horse needs to make up twice as much energy in the third fraction as he is behind in the first fraction. In routes it is almost three times as much. In Houndog's example race, Gold was the pacesetter. Conji had a first fraction deficit of .76, Kell had a first fraction deficit of .89, and Rog3 had a first fraction deficit of 1.53. None of these horses had a third fraction advantage over Gold of even 1-to-1 (F1 deficit to F3 advantage). If Gold runs his race, and pacelines/contenders are correct, Gold should win easily. The trick to this "precision" analysis is in the match-up, where true contenders and "correct" pacelines are selected. I truly hope this helps. If I can help in any way, please let me know. Forecast

I believe that the statement above as quoted by Forecast is probably
one of the best and explanitory pieces of information that I've seen on the board regarding the Match-Up.
It brings to light and explains the concept and has been extremely helpful to me.
Thank you, I've learned something new and it is appreciated.
Have a very happy, healthy and prosperous holiday season and new year.

Thanks for your kind words. I only hope I was able to do justice to the men who developed these concepts. A very Happy Holiday season to you and everyone on the board.

Forecast